NZ goal kickers

taniwharugby

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Don Frye" data-cid="573690" data-time="1461143324">
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2014 Cruden
RC: 77.8
Super: 67.8
 
2013 Cruden
RC: 76.5
Super: ?
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The Fern, helping lazy fluffybunnys since ages ago

Frank

The Boks are generally a little better than us here, Steyn, Goosen Pollard are all pretty damn good goalkickers.

gollum

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="ACT Crusader" data-cid="573689" data-time="1461143152">
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Strang did a similar piece during the RWC last year about DC and Barrett. <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/72476775/Goalkicking-statistics-show-difference-between-Dan-Carter-and-Beauden-Barrett">http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/72476775/Goalkicking-statistics-show-difference-between-Dan-Carter-and-Beauden-Barrett</a>
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Thats really good -
 
<a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://goalkickers.co.za/'>http://goalkickers.co.za/</a>
 
Shows at the mo' Lima adds 6 points per game, Barrett loses 12... second worst out of 50. Only Richie Mo'unga is shitter

Bones

You'd have to take into account the propensity of a team to take a shot. Plus as always people don't take into account sliding doors - a missed shot doesn't necessarily mean less total points, a successful shot doesn't necessarily mean more total points.

Billy Tell

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Bones" data-cid="573713" data-time="1461155088">
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You'd have to take into account the propensity of a team to take a shot. Plus as always people don't take into account sliding doors - a missed shot doesn't necessarily mean less total points, a successful shot doesn't necessarily mean more total points.
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Yip, it's not so simple. A team playing another team with a crap goal-kicker might be inclined to infringe more.
 
I suppose the ABs could just do what they do, which is score a heap of tries, and penalties and conversions become cherries on the cake, rather than the winning or losing of the game.

Crucial

The simple response to this article is 'look at the scoreboard'.
 
Where are the teams those wonderful kickers play for sitting on the table? Those terrible kickers must be in teams wallowing in the depths.
 
If it comes down to it I'd rather have a Cruden than a Wilkinson (although a Carter would be be nice)

taniwharugby

Rennie was saying Cruden will start kicking again in the next couple of weeks (has been kicking at training obviously)

hydro11

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="gollum" data-cid="573705" data-time="1461147761">
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Thats really good -
 
<a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://goalkickers.co.za/'>http://goalkickers.co.za/</a>
 
Shows at the mo' Lima adds 6 points per game, Barrett loses 12... second worst out of 50. Only Richie Mo'unga is shitter
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You're miss reading it. Barrett has lost 12 points this season over the 7 games the Hurricanes have played. So Barrett loses you less than 2 points per game. Sopoaga gains you about 1 point per game. The question you have to ask is, do the other parts of Barrett's game make him 3 points per game better than Sopoaga? I think that stats show it would be foolhardy to put Sopoaga on the bench ahead of Barrett because there is not much difference in their goal kicking over 15-20 minutes. Barrett scores tries that no one else could. If you watch <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://i.imgur.com/580ELOS.gifv'>this</a> only Barrett scores that try out of him, Cruden and Sopoaga. Therefore Barrett has just gained back 7 points over the 2 he loses by goal kicking.
 
As it is, I think overall Sopoaga is a better player than Barrett regardless of goal kicking. However, Barrett's kicking isn't so bad and his attacking play is so good that he has to be picked on the bench.

taniwharugby

I think BB sits on the bench, regardless who the ABs pick, but BBSS always makes the team every time....my preference is Cruden, but if he is out, then Sopoaga starts.

hydro11

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Billy Tell" data-cid="573679" data-time="1461142002">
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70% bare minimum. 75% acceptable. 80% excellent. Above 80% world class. 
It's pure arrogance to think the ABs can keep on winning against the big guys with a 65% goal kicker.
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It's not arrogance, it's just about picking the best players. Not picking Cruden or Barrett because they can't kick goals at above 70% would be the same as not picking Wilkinson because his running game was average. Sopoaga kicked below 70% in last year's Super Rugby, this year he's world class. That should show you how variable these percentages are. Cruden was above 80% some Super Rugby seasons as well.
 
Barrett is kicking at 66% this season and that costs the Hurricanes less than 2 points per game. Most international teams would pick Barrett because he could easily get those 2 points back by individual brilliance.

Crucial

Like BB, Cruden certainly create more points than he leaves on the board. The ABs decided a while back that getting past defences and scoring tries will benefit you far more than field position and kicking goals. If that means having kickers who have lower %s because maybe they have just got up off the ground after being smashed taking the ball to the line and offloading into space, then so be it.

Rembrandt

I haven't watched as many games as I'd like this year but Barrett has nailed a lot of very difficult kicks and fluffed some easy ones, I wouldn't be surprised if things suddenly improve with a minor technique change. I'd also like to see his kicking % vs opposition % at the caketin to see if conditions have been playing a part at all. (Happy to look it up if someone could piont me to a good stats page that might show that!) The try posted earlier was just phenomenal.

Unco

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Crucial" data-cid="573739" data-time="1461185915">
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Like BB, Cruden certainly create more points than he leaves on the board. The ABs decided a while back that getting past defences and scoring tries will benefit you far more than field position and kicking goals. If that means having kickers who have lower %s because maybe they have just got up off the ground after being smashed taking the ball to the line and offloading into space, then so be it.
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I dunno about that one, seemed like that was the only reason they stuck with Dagg for a couple of years there. But I'd consider Cruden really good in that area anyway, it's just the goals that he sometimes struggles with.

mimic

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="hydro11" data-cid="573738" data-time="1461185335">
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It's not arrogance, it's just about picking the best players. Not picking Cruden or Barrett because they can't kick goals at above 70% would be the same as not picking Wilkinson because his running game was average. Sopoaga kicked below 70% in last year's Super Rugby, this year he's world class. That should show you how variable these percentages are. Cruden was above 80% some Super Rugby seasons as well.
 
Barrett is kicking at 66% this season and that costs the Hurricanes less than 2 points per game. Most international teams would pick Barrett because he could easily get those 2 points back by individual brilliance.
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In 2014, Sopoaga was kicking at 84.4%.. 
In 2016, Sopoaga is kicking at 80.6%..

hydro11

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="mimic" data-cid="573799" data-time="1461205076">
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In 2014, Sopoaga was kicking at 84.4%.. 
In 2016, Sopoaga is kicking at 80.6%..
 
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Billytell is saying that you need to kick above 70% to be acceptable. Sopoaga kicked at <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://rugby.statbunker.com/competitions/KickingStrikeRate?comp_id=477'>66% in 2015 Super Rugby. </a>
 
This means the All Blacks wouldn't have picked Sopoaga last year because his goal kicking wasn't good enough but would be picking him this year. I don't think that makes sense. The fact he actually kicked well in 2014 proves my point. You can't just look at the year to year percentages. You need to look at a range of factors, figure out how many points a bad goal kicker will cost you and evaluate how many points they can make up by being awesome.
 
FTR, these are Cruden's % by season
 
2015: 76%
2014: 71%
2013: 69%
2012: 78%
2011: 80%

taniwharugby

do you also factor in that when Sopoaga plays in Dunedin, he doesn't have to deal with weather, arguing that kicking should be easier...

mimic

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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="hydro11" data-cid="573803" data-time="1461209028">
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Billytell is saying that you need to kick above 70% to be acceptable. Sopoaga kicked at <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://rugby.statbunker.com/competitions/KickingStrikeRate?comp_id=477'>66% in 2015 Super Rugby. </a>
 
This means the All Blacks wouldn't have picked Sopoaga last year because his goal kicking wasn't good enough but would be picking him this year. I don't think that makes sense. The fact he actually kicked well in 2014 proves my point. You can't just look at the year to year percentages. You need to look at a range of factors, figure out how many points a bad goal kicker will cost you and evaluate how many points they can make up by being awesome.
 
FTR, these are Cruden's % by season
 
2015: 76%
2014: 71%
2013: 69%
2012: 78%
2011: 80%
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IIRC, during the AB RWC squad announcement, someone from the ABs camp (Foster or Smith) said that the reason for Sopoaga's low percentage was because the captain was so confident in his kicking abilities and were giving him tough kicks. 
It will be interesting to see the kicks he missed. I can only assume a lot were from out wide with Naholo's tries on the wing as well.
 
Also, according to <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://goalkickers.co.za/'>http://goalkickers.co.za/</a>, Cruden had a percentage of 67.8% in 2014, not 71%. 
 
 
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="taniwharugby" data-cid="573805" data-time="1461209731">
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do you also factor in that when Sopoaga plays in Dunedin, he doesn't have to deal with weather, arguing that kicking should be easier...
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In fact, its actually the opposite. There were kicking troubles there in the past. 
<a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/sport/7692768/Roof-turns-Dunedin-into-kickers-nightmare'>http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/sport/7692768/Roof-turns-Dunedin-into-kickers-nightmare</a>

taniwharugby

is that still the case though, given that is 4 years old

Billy Tell

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="taniwharugby" data-cid="573807" data-time="1461211621">
is that still the case though, given that is 4 years old</blockquote>
 
You're right. Wind conditions might have changed at Dunedin Stadium in that time :p 
NB: the percentages I gave on kickers were not deciding on whether they should be picked or not. They were just what I think is roughly the perception if we look purely at goal kicking. Surely no-one will argue that 65% is a good kicking percentage for an international goal kicker. Of course he may have other areas of his game that make up for it.

Wreck Diver

Well I think Barrett just provided a great example of, if you don't kick your goals in a tight match your more than likely end up on the losing side.

The Silver Fern

NZ goal kickers