All Blacks 2024
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
My main concern is our lack of depth at 10.
I was concerned to read last week that using Havili as the backup 1st 5 for the Crusaders was after conversations with the AB coaches.
That's truely horrifying, nothing against Havili - he's only doing what he's been asked to do but my goodness. Is the cupboard really that bare??
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@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Is the cupboard really that bare??
Probably?
McKenzie & Barrett will be in the squad
3rd spot is likely between Perofeta and Cameron. Neither is demanding selection. After that you're into the utilities Havili & Plummer
Also you have to think about what happens if there's a couple of injuries. We're two injuries away from having to take big risks at 10
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Not really, we have five players available who have been capped and play first five, including three of the top four from recent AB squads.
One of those should be nowhere near an AB team, but the others are all reasonable choices. Dmac should be easily the first choice. We are fine.
Add in Plummer, Love, and even Burke (if available for this year) and we aren’t in bad shape.
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In reality, we have only lost Mo’unga and (soon) Burke.
Ioane is the player who I suggested should be nowhere near the frame, however he is still here and is available.
But not counting him we still have arguably the player who should have been at 10 last year anyway, and at least one acceptable backup.
We are in the year(s) early to bring through new options so I think we want an extra space to trial players.
I’m not 100% against Havili there but I think we have at least three who are reasonable other choices.
I’m not concerned about 10, anyway. I’m much more worried about lock, 9, backup midfield.
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Just to follow up, doesn’t it seem strange that Burke is leaving now? He has a clear run at the jersey that has provided the AB10 for most of the last 20 years, with a coach that knows him.
My speculation is that he knew that Razor would be pushing to get overseas players selected and saw himself getting squeezed out. Either that or he got the quiet word?
In other news, I also saw chat this week on social media that Sullivan could be a target for the Saders for next year. Apparently off contract.
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@gt12 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
My speculation is that he knew that Razor would be pushing to get overseas players selected and saw himself getting squeezed out. Either that or he got the quiet word?
It's not that shocking of a situation
With Barrett and DMac still around Burke is at best pushing for the 3rd string AB 10 spot.
There's also the real possibility Mo'unga returns during the World Cup cycle.
Given all of the above plus Burke having a significant injury so is barely playing Super Rugby this year it's hardly surprising he has taken big money overseas plus still has the ability to play international rugby with either England or Scotland.
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Hopefully we shouldn't read too much into Razor allegedly talking with the Crusaders about Havili at 10. His body of work in that position is minimal and it's not unreasonable for Razor to want a look given our resources. FWIW, I' d hate to see Havili at 10 for the ABs unless there are exceptional circumstances. Jeez I don't even like him there for the Saders, but I am softening to that idea this season.
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@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Ethan Blackadder - he's gods gift and one of Blackadder's favourite players. Chances of being selected - 100%
Self love is the best love
With regard's to ten, there's always starting 10 Jordie
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@gt12 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Not really, we have five players available who have been capped and play first five, including three of the top four from recent AB squads.
One of those should be nowhere near an AB team, but the others are all reasonable choices. Dmac should be easily the first choice. We are fine.
Add in Plummer, Love, and even Burke (if available for this year) and we aren’t in bad shape.
I can't say I share your optimisim.
It was to be Perofeta's year to cement himself as an AB 10 and he's let it slip through his fingers, the Hurricane's own fans don't even rate Cameron, Love has spent the entire season at fullback, Ioane is a disaster. Plummer is the only one in decent form (at 1st 5) and he's more of a utility than a straight up first 5.
BB's best years at 1st 5 are well behind him, we're kinda left with the option of praying that DMac doesn't get injured.
I was really hoping that someone would come through but TBH the contenders appear to be getting worse not getting better.
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
I'd wager Tom Christie is a better chance to make the ABs than some of those Hurricanes loose forwards.
Doubt it, he’s been dropped from the Saders 23. I’d give him almost no chance of making it but that’s just my view. He tackles a lot but that’s about it.
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
I'd wager Tom Christie is a better chance to make the ABs than some of those Hurricanes loose forwards.
I don't buy it. Just because he has favoured Christie as the best option at 7 for Crusaders (in previous seasons) that doesn't mean he sees Chrstie as being among the best half dozen or so loosies in NZ in 2024.
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@Bovidae we might aswell get used to the ABs losing if they select Christie. One of the main reasons for the Crusaders poor season to date is their lack of go forward, Christie has been a big part of that issue. He would be even less impactful at international level. I hope Robertson doesn’t turn a position of potential strength for us into a glaring weakness.
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@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Bovidae we might aswell get used to the ABs losing if they select Christie. One of the main reasons for the Crusaders poor season to date is their lack of go forward, Christie has been a big part of that issue. He would be even less impactful at international level. I hope Robertson doesn’t turn a position of potential strength for us into a glaring weakness.
I can not see Christie in the AB frame,The crusaders should stick with Lilo-Willie at 8,Grace at 6,Blackadder at 7 and Kellow off the bench.
I would be very disappointed if they changed that combo for Christie to be included -
@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Chris as I see it atm, if we are selecting 7 loose forwards I'd hope Razor's loose forward mix will look something like the below. I've given each player a percentage of what I think their chances of being selected are right now, assuming Razor will pick a few Crusaders players even though they've been mostly ordinary all year.
Certainties
- Ardie Savea - coming back from Japan. Chances of being selected - 100%
- Samipeni Finau - his physical attributes will be hard to ignore - Chances of being selected - 100%
- Hoskins Sotutu - has really upped his work-rate this year, he's too hard to ignore. Chances of being selected - 100%
- Dalton Papali'i - his form has been great this year. Chances of being selected - 100%
- Ethan Blackadder - he's gods gift and one of Blackadder's favourite players. Chances of being selected - 100%
In the frame
- Peter Lakai - has been one of the strongest carriers in Super Rugby and has the physical attributes to be a superb international loose forward, may be too early for him though. Chances of being selected - 60%
- Christian Lio-Willie - had a great game last week but he needs to show that against better teams. High work-rate and that's what Razor likes. Chances of being selected - 60%
- Brayden Iose - has been dynamite this year but hit a road block last week against the Brums. He offers so much x-factor off the back of the scrum and could be a weapon coming off the bench as an impact player. Chances of being selected - 60%
- Luke Jacobsen - was completely outplayed a couple weeks ago against the Canes but has very strong leadership skills. Has opportunity to play his way into the mixer with a few more strong performances to finish out the Super season. Chances of being selected - 50%
- Billy Harmon - was on my AB radar at the beginning of the season but the Highlanders form has probably impacted his form somewhat. Still a guy I'd pick for the ABs. I'd have him over Cane. Chances of being selected - 40%
- Cullen Grace - has plenty of support from inside the Crusaders so wouldn't be surprised if he was selected, I just don't see it though. He simply hasn't been good enough IMO. Far too inconsistent. Chances of being selected - 30%
- Brad Shields - he's been awesome for the Canes and he's probably the other physical 6 that can match Finau. Age will be against him here though. Chances of being selected - 20%
- Du Plessis Kirifi - had a chance to stake a claim against the Brumbies but didn't perform to the standard expected. Chances of being selected - 20%
- Devan Flanders - has all the attributes for international rugby but probably lacks a little bit of physicality to stake a claim for an AB just yet. If he can mature and become more physical he could be a mainstay in the ABs by the World Cup. Chances of being selected - 20%
- Hugh Renton - started off the season in great nick and was probably the best Highlanders player before getting injured. Needs to show that he can play for a lengthy period without breaking down. Chances of being selected - 10%
- Wallace Sititi - 100% a player of the future but probably a little too young for me. Chances of being selected - 10%
Dead and buried.
- Sam Cane - the All Blacks need to move on from Cane IMO, he no longer warrants automatic selection for me. Chances of being selected - 10%
- Akira Ioane - another player that's far too inconsistent. Drifts in and out of games far too often and won't be a guy that Robertson will even think about TBH. His inability to perform in big games previously will haunt him. Chances of being selected - 10%
The 7 players that I think will be picked by for the squad against England.
- Ardie Savea (Hurricanes)
- Samipeni Finau (Chiefs)
- Hoskins Sotutu (Blues)
- Dalton Papali'i (Crusaders)
- Ethan Blackadder (Crusaders)
- Christian Lio-Willie (Crusaders) - gets in over Brayden Iose because Razor has worked with him before.
- Peter Lakai (Hurricanes)
You genuinely think the incumbent All Blacks captain and No 7 has just a 10% chance of being selected and is behind Billy Harmon and Du'Plessis Kirifi in the pecking order?
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I reckon Kirifi has almost zero chance, I say almost cos he is clearly closer to selection than me.
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@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Not really, we have five players available who have been capped and play first five, including three of the top four from recent AB squads.
One of those should be nowhere near an AB team, but the others are all reasonable choices. Dmac should be easily the first choice. We are fine.
Add in Plummer, Love, and even Burke (if available for this year) and we aren’t in bad shape.
I can't say I share your optimisim.
It was to be Perofeta's year to cement himself as an AB 10 and he's let it slip through his fingers, the Hurricane's own fans don't even rate Cameron, Love has spent the entire season at fullback, Ioane is a disaster. Plummer is the only one in decent form (at 1st 5) and he's more of a utility than a straight up first 5.
BB's best years at 1st 5 are well behind him, we're kinda left with the option of praying that DMac doesn't get injured.
I was really hoping that someone would come through but TBH the contenders appear to be getting worse not getting better.
Yawn.
And I suppose everything would be ok if Mo’unga came back?
I’m not enthusiastic, this is just the reality of a World Cup cycle.
We’ve had plenty of years when incumbents weren’t playing that well. If Perofeta is losing out to Plummer and Razor wants form, then fine that’s how selection works, pick him.
If he wants experience with test rugby, he has three options and since he’s surf fucking Jesus, he can fucking coach them.
