Olympic Optimism

Bones

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="rotated" data-cid="573329" data-time="1460998008">Very, very worried about the men's Sevens program. Titch should have been more open to guys coming into the set up later like previous Commonwealth Games.</blockquote>
Can't agree with that, leaves too much up in the air. Look at Messam, he's completely lost and used to be an absolute gun. Williams looks average. Why leave it open to 50/50?

taniwharugby

If we win 7s they should count the number of individual gold medals handed out, then we'll waste our old record!

Crucial

I'm guessing somewhere from 4-6 Gold but an overall medal tally of around 12

No Quarter

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Bones" data-cid="573331" data-time="1461005232">
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Can't agree with that, leaves too much up in the air. Look at Messam, he's completely lost and used to be an absolute gun. Williams looks average. Why leave it open to 50/50?
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</blockquote>
 
Yeah, I have to admit I underestimated the difference between 15s and 7s. My initial thinking was any of the AB loosies or backs would waltz into 7s and run riot. But the positional play is just so important when there's only 6 other blokes on the field with you - SBW and Messam are really struggling with this, whereas the more experienced 7s players have a knack of being in the right place at the right time.

Bones

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="No Quarter" data-cid="573346" data-time="1461014775">Yeah, I have to admit I underestimated the difference between 15s and 7s. My initial thinking was any of the AB loosies or backs would waltz into 7s and run riot. But the positional play is just so important when there's only 6 other blokes on the field with you - SBW and Messam are really struggling with this, whereas the more experienced 7s players have a knack of being in the right place at the right time.</blockquote>
SBW less so than Messam which is a surprise. But just shows how much it's changed since he was king (Messam). It's played much shallower now and there's absolutely no resting.

hydro11

7's is a lottery but we should have the best squad, I think. Deserve to be favourites but probably only about a 1 in 3 chance of gold.
 
Ko is the best female golfer in the world but she probably has what? a 15-20% chance of gold?

Crucial

I have my fingers crossed that the experience of Titch will see us hitting things just right. The World Series has been a funny beast this year with teams taking very different approaches and trying tactics/players all over the show.
 
NZ in particular has being playing a long game and Titch will have a good idea of who he wants and how he will utilise them.
 
Of the injuries Ben Lam looks to be the biggest blow and there may need to be an adjustment to the final game style. The one that worked really well (and has been shelved since) is to use some hard hit ups in the centre followed by a quick side to side with power on the outside from Akira and Lam.
 
The final selection will be interesting. With only 12 players it will be very important not to carry any niggles into the tournament or you can find yourself short staffed and an extra time game can take the stuffing out of the frontline.
 
My guess is a 6 forward, 5 back, Mikkleson squad
 
I think these guys are locked in (barring injury)
 
 
Forwards: Forbes, SBW, A Ioane,
 
Backs: Kaka, Pulu (we need two playmakers), R Ioane,
 
Mikkleson
 
Then (my guess bold)
 
Forwards (3 from): Messam, Curry, A Savea, Collier, Dickson
 
Backs (2 from): Baker, Ware, Webber (is he injured?), Ahki
 
The others used this year come into contention as backups. Messam or Dickson a hard call.

KiwiPie

Tom Walsh (shot put), in the mix but not the clear favourite 
Lisa Carrington (canoe 200m/500m), Clear favourite - expect 1 gold, hope for 2. 
Cycling sprint team a good chance but not certainties 
Lydia Ko (golf) the favourite but golf too random to expect gold 
Women double sculls - Zoe Stevenson/Eve Macfarlane no idea 
Women lightweight double sculls - Julia Edward/Sophie MacKenzie no idea 
Mens rowing pair - Eric Murray/Hamish Bond very likely 
Rugby sevens (men and women) Aus favourites for women, too close to call for men. 
Mens 49ers sailing very likely
 
Still a chance that Val will improve enough to take gold, it wouldn't be a huge surprise as the distances aren't special.
Are there any other cyclists with a chance?

Frye

Ware has been up and down. If Webber is fit in time than I'd bring him straight in. Otherwise I'd take Molia over Ware.

Frye

Here's the full list 
Athletics 
M Shot Put T. Walsh 
Canoe Sprint 
W K1 200m L. Carrington 
Canoe Sprint 
W K1 500m L. Carrington 
Cycling - Track 
M Team Sprint NZL 
Golf 
W Individual L. Ko 
Rowing 
W Double Sculls Stevenson/MacFarlane 
Rowing 
W Lightweight Double Sculls Edward/Mackenzie 
Rowing 
M Pair Murray/Bond 
Rugby Sevens 
M Team NZL 
Rugby Sevens 
W Team NZL 
Sailing 
M 49er Burling/Tuke 
Silver 
Cycling - Road 
W Individual time trial L. Villumsen 
Cycling - Track 
M Keirin E. Dawkins 
Rowing 
M Lightweight Four NZL 
Rowing 
W Pair Prendergast/Gowler 
Rowing 
M Single Sculls M. Drysdale 
Sailing 
W 470 Aleh/O. Powrie 
Swimming 
W 800m Freestyle L. Boyle 
Bronze 
Athletics 
W Shot Put V. Adams 
Cycling - Track 
M Team Pursuit NZL 
Rowing 
W Eight NZL 
Rowing 
W Single Sculls E. Twigg 
Sailing 
M 470 Willcox/Snow-Hansen

taniwharugby

Carrington got silver in the K1 500m at latest event, isn't this her main event? First loss (or not 1st) in a long time?

Bovidae

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="taniwharugby" data-cid="581708" data-time="1463942636">
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Carrington got silver in the K1 500m at latest event, isn't this her main event? First loss (or not 1st) in a long time?
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</blockquote>
 
Nope. Her main event is the K1 200, which she won the day before and hasn't been beaten in a long time. Danuta KozÃ¡k has been the dominant paddler in the K1 500 for some time. I watched the race live and Carrington wasn't far behind and was gaining. The difficulty for Carrington will be juggling the two events.

taniwharugby

ah ok, that's cool then I thought the longer even was her preferred one.
 
Yeah I knew she had won the 200m the day before, just don't hear much news that this girl loses (well doesn't win)
 
Yeah the Hungarian girl is the current Olympic champion.

Wurzel

I'm doubtful at this stage if the NZ 7s can even medal. Even with SBW and the Ioanes they luck star power. Time to gamble on true x-factor like a Damien McKenzie seeing as he'll be surplus to Hansen's requirements.

Unco

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Our current team has been killed by injuries (and on a lesser note, the Ioane's going back and forth between forms). The NZRU hasn't ruled out adding new players even after the Super season ends so fuck it, send up the SOS and give that kid a parachute.

Wurzel

And while we're at it, the Warriors must know for Shaun Johnson's own professional wellbeing he needs to take a sabbatical from the Warriors woeful season. And where better to take a break than the sunny beaches of Rio.

Toddy

Would D.Macs brilliant attacking skills out way his woeful defence? Would 7s highlight this deficiency more, or could he get away with it?

Unco

His defence is fine. He's no Mils but he's also no Dagg or Barrett.
 
In other Olympics news, Val's back! Great fucking news especially after last night's disaster:
<a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/sport/304506/adams-wins-in-season-opener'>http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/sport/304506/adams-wins-in-season-opener</a>

taniwharugby

I reckon with the open space his pace would paper over any of the cracks in his defence.

Wurzel

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Toddy" data-cid="581741" data-time="1463957071">
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Would D.Macs brilliant attacking skills out way his woeful defence? Would 7s highlight this deficiency more, or could he get away with it?
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</blockquote>
 
 
He'd defend as a sweeper surely, Serevei styles. Chase 'em down and drag them down.

The Silver Fern

Olympic Optimism