RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks
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@Dan54 said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
Up to a point I agree, but no way do I think ABs lost because they were keeping powder dry, just beaten by better team. As I say , at times we have to instead of just saying ABs weren't good, we should give opposition credit for being good, much as it seems a lot of us as AB fans can't do it.
Game is so structured how we play at top level add into fact that late changes seem to stuff up a little how teams play, and at top level against very good teams, off by 2% is enough to lose tests.This.
It’s bloody difficult being direct when you’re under the pump and not running at space/soft shoulders.
The ABs haven’t been able to do that at least as far back as RWC 2019.
Instead, you’ve stretched meaner packs with your outside running game and the dinky cross field kicks everyone’s moaning about now.
When that works like the 2019 QF or when the opposition have dicks for fingers (like the 2019 AB Bok RWC game or the first 20 of mt Smart) your forwards have “been direct”, running at the space against unsettled defensive lines.
But when a better pack is backed up by a backline that can deal with your backs and especially field the cross kicks, like England in the 2019 semi or the Irish in last year’s series, you don’t have the cattle to “be direct.”
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@stodders Barrett played 6 against Ireland in 2022 in the first test, didn't he? He played lock in test 2 and then was missing through injury in test 3. NZ missed him.
I don't think it was a surprise that the ABs looked better with Barrett alongside Cane and Savea in test 1. He has the work rate to play 6 well, the lineout prowess to be a bonafide option at the tail, and the power to add ballast to the scrum.
If Retallick can get back to full fitness and Whitelock can be managed through the pool, I would not be surprised to see Barrett playing 6 in the crunch games. And if he doesn't, he will be the backup to Frizell at 6 (even if starting the game in the second row).
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@Smuts Not sure I agree with that.
ABs haven't done it consistently, but they have been successful since 2019 against 2 of the best packs in world rugby - Ireland and South Africa. Not consistently successful, but if you can manage it once, it is inherently possible that you can manage to do it again.
NZ have always used their backline strengths to stretch teams. That ability is still there.
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@stodders said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
@Joans-Town-Jones In fairness, he's had 3 full years. 2020 was a washout.
Again, in fairness, he's been lucky to have had 3 years given what happened in 2021/2022.
only 3 years? Sorry but I think that's a cop out. Why didn't AI and PGS work out? Hell, PGS played one test? Fozzie hasn't allowed the team to play out. Case in point. 2022. Finally may have found a decent 12 in JB. Then chopped and changed the team. They've only played 6 tests this year and the last 3 have been over 7 weeks. If Fozzie's time was so limited, why didn't he settle on a team earlier? What are odds he will field 3 completely different sides over the next 4 weeks...
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@Joans-Town-Jones I think NZ coaches overplay the R&R element sometimes. Foster isn't alone here. It used to work when the depth was there and the drop off in quality was limited, but that isn't the case now.
A 90% fit JB is better than a 100% fit ALB for instance.
No point managing players for a QF/SF/Final if you get booted out at the pool stage.
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@stodders said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
@Smuts Not sure I agree with that.
ABs haven't done it consistently, but they have been successful since 2019 against 2 of the best packs in world rugby - Ireland and South Africa. Not consistently successful, but if you can manage it once, it is inherently possible that you can manage to do it again.
NZ have always used their backline strengths to stretch teams. That ability is still there.
I don't think anyone is doubting whether they can do it. But it's backing it up the next week which hasn't been done since...can't even remember. Adding to that, putting in an 80min performance hasn't happened in a long time.
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@stodders said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
@Joans-Town-Jones I think NZ coaches overplay the R&R element sometimes. Foster isn't alone here. It used to work when the depth was there and the drop off in quality was limited, but that isn't the case now.
A 90% fit JB is better than a 100% fit ALB for instance.
No point managing players for a QF/SF/Final if you get booted out at the pool stage.
The only way NZ lose to Italy is if they have 3 players sent off
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@stodders said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
@Joans-Town-Jones I think NZ coaches overplay the R&R element sometimes. Foster isn't alone here. It used to work when the depth was there and the drop off in quality was limited, but that isn't the case now.
A 90% fit JB is better than a 100% fit ALB for instance.
No point managing players for a QF/SF/Final if you get booted out at the pool stage.
100% agree. When we dropped the Ireland series, then that test to SA, Foster had lost any opportunity to R&R his perceived A side save for a little swapsy here and there. Jesus, Hansen started in back in 2016 when RC and ALB who were looking fantastic as a centre pairing weren't allowed to own that area with all the changes presumably because SBW who was playing league was his guy. Phuck, he was still changing the team into the SF in 2019. I often wonder, after all the greats retiring in 2015, why they wouldn't find their team and then back a Super player to come in when needed to do a job rather than just rotate entire combinations.
All of a sudden, Cam Roigard's boot becomes incredibly important if Beaudy, Nugget and Rich are not going to kick long.
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@MiketheSnow entirely plausible. I think even one red card at the moment would pose a problem. Italy aren't easy beats now. They were unlucky not to beat France in the opening 6N game this year.
In nearly all of the games they have lost this year they have been within 2 scores.
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@MiketheSnow said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
@stodders said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
@Joans-Town-Jones I think NZ coaches overplay the R&R element sometimes. Foster isn't alone here. It used to work when the depth was there and the drop off in quality was limited, but that isn't the case now.
A 90% fit JB is better than a 100% fit ALB for instance.
No point managing players for a QF/SF/Final if you get booted out at the pool stage.
The only way NZ lose to Italy is if they have 3 players sent off
They'll find a way...
Should the ABs get behind on the scoreboard early, they rack up a bunch of penalties and Italy knock over a few, it's not beyond the possibility the ABs shit the bed and its another first and the ABs go home. In the passed the ABs could be down 20 with 15 to go and you'd back them to steamroll home or at least get very close. This team gets 8 behind and they're done.
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@Joans-Town-Jones since July. When they beat Argentina (a) 12-41 (July 8th), beat South African(h) 35-20 (July 15th), beat Australia (a) 7-38 (July 29th).
Fair enough things have derailed a bit since then, but 2 months ago, the ABs put 3 decent performances together in a row.
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@stodders said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
@Joans-Town-Jones since July. When they beat Argentina (a) 12-41 (July 8th), beat South African(h) 35-20 (July 15th), beat Australia (a) 7-38 (July 29th).
Fair enough things have derailed a bit since then, but 2 months ago, the ABs put 3 decent performances together in a row.
Point of order. Both games 1 and 2 they lost the second half. Still won the game but signs were there. Fozzie then changes pretty much the entire team for game 4 and it took a last min PG to win. Game 5 we got smoke, a man down plus a couple more in the bin, but smoked none the less. So I challenge that 80mins.
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@Joans-Town-Jones Yes. Game 1, they were so far ahead after a near perfect 1st 40 mins that they did not maintain their standards in the 2nd 40 mins.
Game 2 is more nuanced - dominated the 1st 20 mins and took their opportunities. Boks gained ascendancy in 2nd 20 mins and really applied the blowtorch in the 3rd 20 mins, at which point the ABs recalibrated and reasserted control and took their opportunities.
If anything, game 2 shows that the players are capable of thinking on the hoof when things are not working.
In both cases, the ABs had scoreboard pressure on their side that both Arg and SA struggled with (SA less so, but still did to an extent).
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AB issues in last 2 tests have been predominantly at the breakdown and their discipline. Throw in a couple of poor lineout throws to gift ball back to the opposition and some scrum penalties to gift field position, and they have struggled.
It will be interesting to see how the coaches and players react now.
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@Joans-Town-Jones Fair point. I think back to 2013 vs the Irish at Aviva stadium. Few teams would have pulled that back. Irish were on fire that day and still lost.
ABs were in a hole against Oz in Dunedin this year. They pulled through. Just saying.
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@stodders said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
He's played Scott Barrett there. Barrett has the engine and the power game to play 6.
I'm not sure if that is enough, I can see why Schalk Burger loves Scott at 6 (ferocity, workrate, size), but seems to me the 3 Barretts are star players but not glue players, they have unique attributes as individuals but they don't coordinate those around them so well. Seems to me there needs to be more of a glue person, a connector, in the loosies, (at 6 or 8, pref at 6) Ardie is closest but not close enough.
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@nostrildamus Frizell is a glue player? I'd say Ardie has the glue role in the AB backrow.
For me, the SA backrow of Kolisi, PSDT and Vermeulen has the best balance right now (though SA go with Wiese at 8 against NH teams it seems). Kolisi is the glue.
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@stodders said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
@nostrildamus Frizell is a glue player? I'd say Ardie has the glue role in the AB backrow.
I thought I said Ardie was the closest? Frizell has parts of a glue player at times but I don't think he has a natural rugby game mind, he isn't that great a connector.
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@stodders said in RWC Week 1: France v All Blacks:
@Joans-Town-Jones Fair point. I think back to 2013 vs the Irish at Aviva stadium. Few teams would have pulled that back. Irish were on fire that day and still lost.
ABs were in a hole against Oz in Dunedin this year. They pulled through. Just saying.
And that was a statement game missed. Also, a poor Wallabies side.
