Super Rugby 2024
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@mariner4life stats really are a good way to kill the chat, i like to operate purely on vibes
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Look, there is no doubt the Reds are a better team with an actual coach. They will be kicking themselves about those losses to shit teams, because teams wouldn't relish travelling to Brisbane for knock out games.
But the biggest driver of the overall "improvement" is NZ having 2 shit teams instead of the usual 1. -
@mariner4life said in Super Rugby 2024:
while the over all tone i can't really get on board with, the narrative that the Aussie sides have got better compared to NZ sides is surface level at best.
In 2023 their record v NZ opposition was 5-21 for an average score of 23-36
In 2024 the record is 9-15 for an average score of 22-32The difference is almost exclusively the Crusaders falling off a cliff. In 2023 the 5 aussie wins were over the Landers x3, the Chiefs and Blues once each. The Crusaders and Canes both went 5-0 v Aussie teams.
This year once again the Chiefs lost to the Reds, the Blues have gone 5-0 but the Hurricanes slipped up in Canberra. The Landers lost their 3 games again. And the Crusaders have gone 1-4.
Facts > Feelings. Most sensible and grounded contribution to this thread for a long time.
Last year there were 6 losses 20+ points, this year 8 (so far)
This one is pretty significant isn't it? Still have four rounds to go..
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I'm not sure you prove anything by removing the worst NZ sides results. You could achieve similar by taking out the best Aussie sides results.
All it means if you've decided to remove some results
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i haven't removed anything?
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@mariner4life said in Super Rugby 2024:
Look, there is no doubt the Reds are a better team with an actual coach. They will be kicking themselves about those losses to shit teams, because teams wouldn't relish travelling to Brisbane for knock out games.
But the biggest driver of the overall "improvement" is NZ having 2 shit teams instead of the usual 1.Does New Zealand have two shit teams though, or are the Aussie sides actually just playing better? If the Aussie sides weren't better, the Crusaders and Highlanders would surely have better records? Let's not pretend like the New Zealand sides just lost the games... the Australian sides largely wont them.
I'd also be curious to know, about a true spread breakdown.
Reds went down in GP v the Canes and at the death v Blues
Tahs went down at the death v Landers & Blues, and were in it for a decent stretch v Chiefs
Force went down at the death v the Landers
Rebels largely pounded - fair enough
Brumbies beat the Landers, Canes (and likely the Crusaders) the fact they got pounded v the Canes and Blues feels like an anomaly on their season.Feels like most of the tight games have fallen to the Kiwi sides?
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@frugby The Reds are the only side who've improved, the Brumbies were competitive against NZ franchises and tested them particularly heavily at the breakdown last season with Laurie Fisher there, now with him gone it's back to blowout scores like 46-7, 46-12. They really took it to a more experienced & stronger Chiefs team (compared to 2024) in the Semi Final at Waikato last year. They are back to home-track bullies who invariably wilt against NZ teams in NZ because Lord Laurie isn't there and he was one of the very few Australian coaches who had adequate knowledge of how & where to exploit NZ sides.
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@ruggabee said in Super Rugby 2024:
@frugby The Reds are the only side who've improved, the Brumbies were competitive against NZ franchises and tested them at the breakdown last season with Laurie Fisher there, now with him gone it's back to blowout scores like 46-7, 46-12. They really took it to a more experienced & Chiefs team (compared to 2024) in the Semi Final at Waikato last year. They are back to home-track bullies who invariably wilt against NZ teams in NZ because Lord Laurie isn't there and he was one of the very few Australian coaches who had adequate knowledge of how & where to exploit NZ sides.
Well the Rebels have already won 1 more game than they did last year despite losing to the lowly Crusaders, so I'd say they've also improved.
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@ruggabee said in Super Rugby 2024:
@frugby The Reds are the only side who've improved, the Brumbies were competitive against NZ franchises and tested them particularly heavily at the breakdown last season with Laurie Fisher there, now with him gone it's back to blowout scores like 46-7, 46-12. They really took it to a more experienced & stronger Chiefs team (compared to 2024) in the Semi Final at Waikato last year. They are back to home-track bullies who invariably wilt against NZ teams in NZ because Lord Laurie isn't there and he was one of the very few Australian coaches who had adequate knowledge of how & where to exploit NZ sides.
Fair call on the Brumbies, but those results really feel like outliers... unsure quite what caused them, but I'd expect them to give a much better account of themselves when/if they get another crack.
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@TJ said in Super Rugby 2024:
Well the Rebels have already won 1 more game than they did last year despite losing to the lowly Crusaders, so I'd say they've also improved.
That's not surprising to anyone, they have a superior squad to 2023, before the season started everyone with a mouth predicted they'd do better in 2024 given the signings in the off-season including Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Taniela Tupou, Filipo Daugunu, Matt Proctor, Darby Lancaster, etc.. on paper their squad is actually stronger than Waratahs and Reds but they are just abysmally coached under Foote. It's genuinely hilarious how accepting of mediocrity some of you are.
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@ruggabee uh huh, but I was responding to you saying only 1 Aus side had improved.
I think when you really interrogate it this season has been far more competitive and unpredictable and as a result a far more enjoyable watch than the last few years. -
@ruggabee said in Super Rugby 2024:
@TJ said in Super Rugby 2024:
Well the Rebels have already won 1 more game than they did last year despite losing to the lowly Crusaders, so I'd say they've also improved.
That's not surprising to anyone, they have a superior squad to 2023, before the season started everyone with a mouth predicted they'd do better in 2024 given the signings in the off-season including Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Taniela Tupou, Filipo Daugunu, Matt Proctor, Darby Lancaster, etc.. on paper their squad is actually stronger than Waratahs and Reds but they are just abysmally coached under Foote. It's genuinely hilarious how accepting of mediocrity some of you are.
Rebels also have had to deal with enormous upheaval and uncertainty around the future of the club this season but that doesn't fit your narrative so it's no surprise you don't include it.
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It's also bloody hard to get a read on the Tahs
They actually had some very competitive results early in the season but were never able to get anything close to their top team on the park.
1 missed kick away from beating Highlanders
Golden Point loss to Drua in Fiji
2 point loss to Blues
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@TJ said in Super Rugby 2024:
@ruggabee uh huh, but I was responding to you saying only 1 Aus side had improved.
Yes that's right, a meaningful improvement would have to imply an improvement of the team's systems and structures, not simply looking at results. They are poorly coached at the lineout, at the breakdown, in defense.
No they haven't improved from last year because looking at the context they've had (so far) an easier draw and despite having a stronger squad the team's systems & structures are just as ineffective/poor as last year..
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@ruggabee said in Super Rugby 2024:
@TJ said in Super Rugby 2024:
@ruggabee uh huh, but I was responding to you saying only 1 Aus side had improved.
Yes that's right, a meaningful improvement would have to imply an improvement of the team's systems and structures, not simply looking at results. They are poorly coached at the lineout, at the breakdown, in defense.
No they haven't improved from last year because looking at the context they've had (so far) an easier draw and despite having a stronger squad the team's systems & structures are just as ineffective/poor as last year..
They've had an easier draw than last year? I'm comparing their season so far against the entire season last year, so even if their season ended this round they're up on last year. The draw doesn't come into it.
They're playing much better rugby than last year, definitely a much improved team this year.
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@nzzp said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Duluth it's fluff.
I reckon the Blues drop a game before the finals. Probably the Chefs. We always seem to shit the bed against them... so there is definitely a sniff for the Canes to finish top.
Cooking up a blues loss.
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@nzzp said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Duluth it's fluff.
I reckon the Blues drop a game before the finals. Probably the Chefs. We always seem to shit the bed against them... so there is definitely a sniff for the Canes to finish top.
don't get sucked into that reverse jinx game. The Blues are nailed on for top of the table
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Lets look at the bottom half of the table.
The run home:
Rebels
Chiefs (H), Brumbies (A), Drua (A)
Prediction: L, L, L, and one bonus point - 26 ptsHighlanders
Blues (A), Drua (H), Hurricanes (A)
Prediction: L, W, L, and one bonus point - 28 ptsDrua
Reds (H), Highlanders (A), Rebels (H)
Prediction: L, L, W, and one bonus point - 22 ptsForce
Waratahs (H), Reds (A), Brumbies (H) - do the Brumbies rest players in the final round?
Prediction: W, L, L - 19 ptsMoana Pasifika
Hurricanes (A), Waratahs (H), Crusaders (A)
Prediction: L, W, L - 18 ptsCrusaders
Brumbies (A), Blues (H), MP (H)
Prediction: L, L, W, and one bonus point - 19 ptsWaratahs
Force (A), MP (A), Reds (H)
Prediction: L, L, L, and two bonus points - 14 ptsForce vs. Brumbies, Crusaders vs. MP, and Drua vs. Rebels all important games in the final round.
Predicted cut-off for quarter-finals: 22 points
Final predicted standings:
- Highlanders - 28
- Rebels - 26
- Drua - 22
- Crusaders - 19
- Force - 19
- Moana Pasifika - 18
- Waratahs - 14
