Rough tips and other bets...
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Holeesheet. Fave ZAAKI scratched from the Cox Plate, goes in a few hours. Shocker!
J-Mac was in the saddle. He’s actually ridden 7 of these horses, and won’t have a mount. (Waller wouldn’t bump Damian Lane off Verry Elleegent, would he?) Mo’unga stands a verrry good chance of taking this out. I love VE but she’ll have to be on the speed to get there, that Valley straight is too short for her full windup.
Anamoe now fave, and VE shortening.
For those keeping score, with the two scratchings there are now 8 entrants:
Four NZL (Verry Elleegent, Probabeel, Mo’unga, Callsign Mav)
Three AUS
One IRECan Callsign Mav shock the world?
I’ll tell you what, this Irish horse has me scratching my head. Very ambitious. His last race was a win in the G1 Saratoga Derby in NY, the Summer at Saratoga is the most prestigious race meet in America, and a G1 win at Saratoga makes me sit up. This horse has flown way under the radar. I can’t imagine it winning, but… c’mon, VE kick it’s ass!
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@kid-chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Holeesheet. Fave ZAAKI scratched from the Cox Plate, goes in a few hours. Shocker!
J-Mac was in the saddle. He’s actually ridden 7 of these horses, and won’t have a mount. (Waller wouldn’t bump Damian Lane off Verry Elleegent, would he?)
He'd have to get that one past the Racing Victoria stewards and that won't be happening, especially when riders have been declared for several days.
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@kid-chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
I’ll tell you what, this Irish horse has me scratching my head. Very ambitious. His last race was a win in the G1 Saratoga Derby in NY, the Summer at Saratoga is the most prestigious race meet in America, and a G1 win at Saratoga makes me sit up. This horse has flown way under the radar. I can’t imagine it winning, but…
It (STATE OF REST) survived a 30-min protest and won. Bumped Anamoe near line. VE was hard-charging wide, and for a moment I thought had good chance to win, but that straight is too short.
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@kid-chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
I’ll tell you what, this Irish horse has me scratching my head. Very ambitious. His last race was a win in the G1 Saratoga Derby in NY, the Summer at Saratoga is the most prestigious race meet in America, and a G1 win at Saratoga makes me sit up. This horse has flown way under the radar. I can’t imagine it winning, but…
I’m miffed about this. Good on ya young Joseph O’Brien, what a target, what a bullseye. Hmm, I’ll take my horse that’s never won a race win a million-dollar G1 in America then a $5 million Australiasian Championship 2 for 2. Ridiculous. STATE OF REST (IRE) had only five starts and one win coming into the Cox Plate. No prep races. Formline read :
First Australian start. Arrives off G1 Saratoga Derby win at first try beyond 1600m.
He came in to the race with the lowest international time rating in the field (115, tied with Callsign Mav) and is listed as a 4yo in that field, but is really a northern hemisphere three -year old, so got dinged a couple extra kilograms. The horse he beat by a length at the G1 at Saratoga in August (SOLDIER RISING (GB)) was 8/5 fave at a $400K G2 for 3yos at Belmont today but could only manage 5th, and the American turf crop right now is weak. Unless that horse becomes a superstar, that result is just shit for Aus racing.
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More rotten luck for J-Mac.
Melbourne Cup shock – favoured international runner ruled out
Melbourne Cup contender Away He Goes has been ruled out of the great race with a tendon injury.
It comes barely 72 hours after champion Sydney jockey James McDonald secured the ride on the Ismail Mohammed-trained British challenger.
Away He Goes, runner-up in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup in July, was rated a $15 Melbourne Cup markets.
He lost out on any share of the Cox Plate ($5 mill) and now the Cup ($8 mill). That’s leaving a lot of chow at the table.
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@kid-chocolate I'm miffed about State of Rest as well, because I read your earlier post and it got me wondering - but not enough to put a small amount of cash on his nose.
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Watching that replay i've changed my mind about the whole race
I was furious at Lane for where he took VE but holy shit, it was probably the right move. Blew past everyone, but that sharp bend and Mounga being determined to be wide all day pushed him well wide. And there was absolutely no reason for that gap the winners took to appear either. Dalasan goes towards the rail for some fucking reason, the other 2 front runners shifted out, and bang, a gap appears, and the 1 and 2 pour through. I have watched a lot of Valley racing and seen more than 1 good horse just get stuck in the straight behind tiring leaders before running out of room.
Hot take: If they don't run the Manikato meet the night before at the Valley, thus fucking the rail, VE wins a CP.
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@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
And there was absolutely no reason for that gap the winners took to appear either. Dalasan goes towards the rail for some fucking reason, the other 2 front runners shifted out, and bang, a gap appears, and the 1 and 2 pour through. I have watched a lot of Valley racing and seen more than 1 good horse just get stuck in the straight behind tiring leaders before running out of room.
Too right. watching live i said holyfuckinbatshit, parted like the Red Sea. I couldn’t believe it, on a short straight yet. what a gift.
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James isn’t just a rider; he’s also a writer.
“I don’t even get to touch them. They fall apart before I get to them.”
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Could J-Mac reunite with Verry Elleegant in Melbourne Cup?
https://www.racenet.com.au/news/melbourne-cup-damian-lane-confirmed-to-ride-the-chosen-one-20211029
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@hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Haven’t tipped out a horse in a while but I think our Sussex is a cracking chance today. Race 2, Tauranga
Mortgage. On.
No pressure
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Melbourne Cup in 24 hours.
I’ve done pretty well the past couple Cups, hitting nice exactas and tri’s, but I reckon this year there’s fuckall value so only going to play the race as the first leg in the late quaddie.
Selections.
2 INCENTIVISE going at shortest odds since Phar Lap. Don’t know if he can go the distance, but form and race record says everything. The hype says he can’t lose.
3 SPANISH MISSION (USA) has been dueling with Strativarius in marathons. After what happened in the Cox you’d be a fool to pass on anything top-drawer coming from UK. Serious threat.
Those are clear standouts.
After that I have to throw in…3 VERRY ELLEGEENT (NZ) my sentimental fave, but it’s a long race, she’s a small horse, and she’s carrying a lot of weight. Doubt she can do it, but it’s Jmac-Waller, I can’t leave off my ticket.
12 PERSAN loves the course, peaking at the right time, and a 5yo gelding which is an angle I always use when I’m lazy.
Gotta throw in one more roughie, and a Kiwi at that, so looking to
21 TRALEE ROSE (NZ) for some value.
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@kid-chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Melbourne Cup in 24 hours.
I’ve done pretty well the past couple Cups, hitting nice exactas and tri’s, but I reckon this year there’s fuckall value so only going to play the race as the first leg in the late quaddie.
Selections.
- INCENTIVISE going at shortest odds since Phar Lap. Don’t know if he can go the distance, but form and race record says everything. The hype says he can’t lose.
the weight he copped for the Caufield Cup run says he can lose, but sh*t that was a good run
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@bayimports said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@kid-chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Melbourne Cup in 24 hours.
I’ve done pretty well the past couple Cups, hitting nice exactas and tri’s, but I reckon this year there’s fuckall value so only going to play the race as the first leg in the late quaddie.
Selections.
- INCENTIVISE going at shortest odds since Phar Lap. Don’t know if he can go the distance, but form and race record says everything. The hype says he can’t lose.
the weight he copped for the Caufield Cup run says he can lose, but sh*t that was a good run
and a terrible ride!!!
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Still looking for upsetters, I’m going to throw in a couple more 5yo geldings 16 GRAND PROMENADE and 22 FLOATING ARTIST, both should stay the trip at very low weights, peaking condition, and the latter has Ted Nugent in the saddle.
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I almost never follow the hype - but, today I'm going to. Because my TAB account is in a bad way. (I really should stick to sports betting and leave horses well alone).
I am assured by Jimmy Cassidy that Incentivise is going to shit in.
...and a little place bet on Tralee Rose just in case Jimmy is horribly wrong.
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I’m getting a last minute feeling last years’ winner and topweight Irish import 1 TWILIGHT PAYMENT might repeat. I’m adding to all my tickets as an insurance policy!!
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OMG!!! Amazing. J-Mac (NZ) Chris Waller (NZ) VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
