Coronavirus - Overall
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I'm unsure as to the timing in New Zealand, but in Australia the panic was characterised by two "events". The Italy count and the Ruby Princess.
Earlier today I was reading this: Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Published August last year.
In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season.
We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly.
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.
That's interesting for a baseline.
But, how much of Italy has Covid19 impacted yet though? Italy don't release stats by state/region, so the JHU stats don't break down by region for Italy, so there's been no reporting of it yet that I have seen. Has the country gone into lockdown before it spread much from Lombardy and the rest of the Po Valley? (Although Po Valley acccounts for half of Italy's population)
Have found this:
The top 4 are all Po Valley. Rome (Lazio) and Naples (Campania) have barely been effected yet.
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When Italy went into lockdown, they already had 9000 confirmed cases. Recent evidence suggests that many, many more Italians would have been exposed and spreading it.
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How is Greece not completely fu*ked? Ton of smokers, old population, generational living arrangements, poor public health system etc. Is it purely a case of covid19 not getting a hold there yet and the worst is to come? Or is there some other reason for low infection rate?
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Toddy Perhaps because they’re so fucking lazy and work shy they’re already in partial lockdown?
It's a miracle they were the world's biggest empire back in the day
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Toddy Perhaps because they’re so fucking lazy and work shy they’re already in partial lockdown?
It's a miracle they were the world's biggest empire back in the day
they are still resting from the effort that took
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@Catogrande Work lazy I get, but they're pretty social people (kiss for greetings etc). They love to go to a cafe (instead of working) during the day and talk bullsh*t. Well, the men do. How are they not dying in droves?
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@canefan also, were they technically an empire? It was a collection of loosely allied states, and they seem to take turns being in charge depending on who was the strongest at the time. Bunch of different king and shit. And seemed to spend half the time butchering each other.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@canefan also, were they technically an empire? It was a collection of loosely allied states, and they seem to take turns being in charge depending on who was the strongest at the time. Bunch of different king and shit. And seemed to spend half the time butchering each other.
Hahaha, yeah, further evidence of their laziness, they couldn't even be bothered to have a proper empire like Rome eventually would.
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@Toddy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande Work lazy I get, but they're pretty social people (kiss for greetings etc). They love to go to a cafe (instead of working) during the day and talk bullsh*t. Well, the men do. How are they not dying in droves?
Yep, there's some very puzzling things about this virus in the differing impacts on countries.
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@Tim said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Thanks, Tim, Torygraph here in UK yesterday reported that group in the first batch weren't representative and many had replied to FB ad because they felt unwell?
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@Rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I'm unsure as to the timing in New Zealand, but in Australia the panic was characterised by two "events". The Italy count and the Ruby Princess.
Earlier today I was reading this: Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Published August last year.
In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season.
We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly.
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.
That's interesting for a baseline.
But, how much of Italy has Covid19 impacted yet though? Italy don't release stats by state/region, so the JHU stats don't break down by region for Italy, so there's been no reporting of it yet that I have seen. Has the country gone into lockdown before it spread much from Lombardy and the rest of the Po Valley? (Although Po Valley acccounts for half of Italy's population)
Have found this:
The top 4 are all Po Valley. Rome (Lazio) and Naples (Campania) have barely been effected yet.
Interesting graph, thanks. Most countries have much higher incidence in localities which contain decent sized cities.
One interesting thing, though, about Italy, is that people, at least in the north, tend to live more in 200k pop towns than big cities: hence Amazon has found it tricky to make its model work there.
Arguing against myself!
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
And destroy capital values in the meantime.
One man's debt is another man's capital asset..
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
And destroy capital values in the meantime.
One man's debt is another man's capital asset..
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
And destroy capital values in the meantime.
One man's debt is another man's capital asset..
Yep, but rising interest rates attack capital values of bonds and make corporate and govvy debt more expensive to service. With interest rates where they are the longer term outlook for the safe haven of government and IG bonds is not particularly good. In the UK we’ve basically had a 40 year bull market in bonds as rates have reduced. Sooner or later that easy ride will turn to a painful ride and I’m not sure we’re placed to deal with it.
And it sort of fucks over Modern Portfolio Theory which has been the cornerstone of investment professionals since the 1950’s and is much favoured by the compliance and regulatory regimes which dictate risk management.
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@Catogrande 2% interest is an attack on capital value now?
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@Tim said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande 2% interest is an attack on capital value now?
Sure. On a 10 year bond a 2% increase in rates is about a 20% drop in capital values. Broad brush view but close enough.