Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020
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@Hooroo Pleased with that team.
Would have liked to see Ferguson picked, as well (probably instead of Mitchell) - but, he'll probably be a bit underdone.
Now just need the selectors to do what they did last time in Wellington and play without a spinner.
One thing that seems really odd to me is Astle's retirement - mid-season - from playing test cricket. As this article mentions - he'd have probably had the inside running to play these tests. I guess he must have decided he doesn't like playing test cricket - or, was he given some word that he wasn't going to be picked again?
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@canefan said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@nzzp said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@shark said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
I was already thinking we're better off not playing a spinner and the stats I heard today completely reaffirmed that for me. I'd play three specialist seamers plus CDG and Neesham, assuming he's up for the bowling.
I'm not opposed to that, but I really really want a part timer to throw down a few overs. Otherwise the batsmen get set and don't have to deal with different pace; just medium/medium fast all day, mostly right arm. If you can deal with 3 top bowlers, is a part timer really going to get you out or stop up an end more than a spinner? Ashleigh Giles built a career on being a trundling half decent number 8.
Not fundamentally opposed to no spinner, but I'd probably pad the batting, and also have an answer to the captain looking around for something different halfway through the third or fourth session
Kane will have to be our part time spinner. Unless Jeet makes the team
How is his shoulder injury? Kane won't be bowling.
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@Rapido said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@canefan said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@nzzp said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@shark said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
I was already thinking we're better off not playing a spinner and the stats I heard today completely reaffirmed that for me. I'd play three specialist seamers plus CDG and Neesham, assuming he's up for the bowling.
I'm not opposed to that, but I really really want a part timer to throw down a few overs. Otherwise the batsmen get set and don't have to deal with different pace; just medium/medium fast all day, mostly right arm. If you can deal with 3 top bowlers, is a part timer really going to get you out or stop up an end more than a spinner? Ashleigh Giles built a career on being a trundling half decent number 8.
Not fundamentally opposed to no spinner, but I'd probably pad the batting, and also have an answer to the captain looking around for something different halfway through the third or fourth session
Kane will have to be our part time spinner. Unless Jeet makes the team
How is his shoulder injury? Kane won't be bowling.
It's the basin, do we even need a spinner? Boult, Tim, Wags, Jamieson and CdG
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@shark said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
The stats re spinners taking test wickets in NZ, and particularly NZ spinners, were trotted out this arvo on RS. And they're fucking abysmal. The most any single spinner has taken in NZ in the last decade is 25. 25!!! In many other countries that's a good series!
I was already thinking we're better off not playing a spinner and the stats I heard today completely reaffirmed that for me. I'd play three specialist seamers plus CDG and Neesham, assuming he's up for the bowling.
Did RS compare the NZ spinner stats v NZ seamers bowling 2nd or 3rd change?
I think you'll find Santner has been surprisingly good.
As 4th change or lower: Wagner, head, shoulders, about 10 more heads and shoulders. Then probably Santner. A fit Doug Bracewell I'd back as a Santner replacement. But Neesham, Henry, Mitchell etc I'd think would be less effective. Although Neesham's bowling does look improved. I mean Matt Henry with a new ball has much worse record than Santner, imagine giving him an old ball?
I'm not fussed if Santner gets dropped. Not because of his bowling, though. I'd prefer to be more convinced by his batting in his role.
For me, either replace him with a spinner or a batsman. Dont see what a 5th seamer adds. There are young batsmen around who can bowl part time spin. But that doesn't solve the immediate problem.
Other solution is NZ grounsdmen stop producing such boring wickets....
Must do a statsguru query to back up my hunches/observations, when i have the time.
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I'd pick Neesham over Santner, but hopefully a better bowler comes along.
Apparently this will be Taylor's 100th test match, making him the first player to play 100 internationals in T20, ODIs and tests. Hopefully Kane passes him, but currently our greatest ever batsman.
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Here we go:
The last decade, in nz, bowling 2nd change or lower.
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@Rapido said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
Here we go:
The last decade, in nz, bowling 2nd change or lower.
But we hardly ever pick 4 genuine quicks, so not really a fair comparison.
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@hydro11 said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@Rapido said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
Here we go:
The last decade, in nz, bowling 2nd change or lower.
But we hardly ever pick 4 genuine quicks, so not really a fair comparison.
Hardly surprising
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What was Glenn Phillips bowling the other day that snared him 3-40 in the Ford Trophy final? There's not an opening for him at the moment, and he'd have to be selected as a batsman rather than a keeper-batsman of course, but at some stage his bowling could be of use in all formats.
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@shark said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
What was Glenn Phillips bowling the other day that snared him 3-40 in the Ford Trophy final? There's not an opening for him at the moment, and he'd have to be selected as a batsman rather than a keeper-batsman of course, but at some stage his bowling could be of use in all formats.
He was bowling little offies
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@nzzp said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@Rapido did you see the strike rate for Kane? It was decent - 46 balls or so. Everyone wants to see him chuck a few more down (emphasis on the chuck at times regrettably :))
Kane was a great 5th bowling option back when ICC weren't clamping down on chuckers. He's still pretty good when he concentrates on keeping a straight arm. But his bowling stats are flattered by the chucking days.
I'd be happy to play an extra batsman and have Kane bowl if he was fit and confident enough though. But he isn't. If Kane didn't have a shoulder injury .... do you notice him anytime he has to dive in the field?
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@hydro11 said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@Rapido said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
Here we go:
The last decade, in nz, bowling 2nd change or lower.
But we hardly ever pick 4 genuine quicks, so not really a fair comparison.
They're just the facts, ma'am.
Albeit limited by the criteria that it only records their bowling position of their first spell, but it;s the best we have.You can sort them, filter them, however you like.
Excluding the freak that is Wagner.
Specialist seam bowlers (Tuffey, Bracewell, Southee, CdG, Henry, Arnel, Boult, Franklin, Gillespie) have averaged 69.00 when bowling second change or lower (compared to their collective career average of 37.18).If include the batting allrounder/competent seamers (Anderson, Neesham, Mitchell) in the non-Wagner list. It improves to averaging 51.88
If add Wagner in, it single-handedly becomes excellent: Averaving 26.28
In comparison. Specialist spin bowlers have averaged 46.41. (Specialists plus Kane average 45.08)
If we can find a second Wagner: Then yes, that would be better than a spinner.
A decade of historical stats suggests finding a second Wagner is pretty hard, and a failed second Wagner is actually 50% worse than a spinner. (69 v 46).
Facts.
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@Chris-B said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@Rapido The tactics are very clear.
Boult and Southee open the bowling.
Jamieson first change.
Wagner second change.Under no circumstances does Wags bowl before Jamieson - even if Kyle just bowls one over.
Not bad, But where does CdG fit in?
Is he 3rd change? Would he average less than 45 (the historical average for a spinner last decade in NZ) no longer getting the newish ball to nibble around as first change?
I don't know, but there a tradeoffs.
Or would one of Southee or Boult no longer get that second spell before lunch with a 20 over-old ball? Instead that space is given to CdG and Jamieson?
I'm sure professional coaches have data-scraping programmes working out what is most effective in overs 40-70 when the ball has gotten old and not yet reversing, and selecting a bowling balance to cater for that.
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@Rapido Hopefully, the stats show we've bowled them out without having to resort to a fifth bowler - since it's apparently largely a waste of time. Otherwise I guess he's the famous "holding seamer".
Notable point from your stats above is that if we go in with CdG and Ajaz - with Wags most likely first change - we're expecting 1/153.
Alternatively, maybe one of the opening bowlers fakes an injury and CdG comes on to finish their over in a sort of Platform 9 3/4ths move?
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@Chris-B said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@Rapido Hopefully, the stats show we've bowled them out without having to resort to a fifth bowler - since it's apparently largely a waste of time. Otherwise I guess he's the famous "holding seamer".
Notable point from your stats above is that if we go in with CdG and Ajaz - with Wags most likely first change - we're expecting 1/153.
Alternatively, maybe one of the opening bowlers fakes an injury and CdG comes on to finish their over in a sort of Platform 9 3/4ths move?
I don't get the bolded bit.
CdG has bowled 1st change (or opened) in 37 of his 41 innings. Why would he bowl 2nd change or lower with Wagner re-elevated above him? If Ajaz is selected.
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@Chris-B said in Indian Cricket Tour of NZ 2020:
@Rapido Has he (Colin)? That surprises me!
Yes, He's pushed poor old Wags to be a totally old ball specialist. As it is judged the best use of collective resources:
- CdG nibbles the ball around, when its newish.
- Wagner bowls Wagnerball with an old ball.
Although Wagner would be perfectly capable of bowling 1st change, as he did for the first half of his test career before CdG. His value to the team is immeasurable.
Here is all seamers from all countries in any venue, in same timeframe, bowling second change or lower:
All 4th seamers in 2010s:
Bowling records | Test matches | Cricinfo Statsguru | ESPNcricinfo.com
