2018 Football World Cup
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some actuarial analysis into who will win...
If you’re wondering who’s likely to win World Cup 2018, then this study from insurance broker JLT Specialty has interesting insights for you.
Citing new research from JLT, Actuarial Post reported the odds – Brazil, with a 17.89% chance to bag World Cup victory, leads the way, followed by Germany, Spain, France, and Argentina.
According to the report, the risk management firm calculated each club’s probability of winning using the average odds of 25 betting houses. In addition, JLT’s study also examined ‘player value’ – France, with £967 million in estimated market value, is considered to have the most valuable squad.
“Despite humiliation four years ago Brazil have bounced back and are now in a great position to walk away from Russia as champions,” Duncan Fraser, head of sport at JLT Specialty, was quoted as saying. “Whether they can replicate their pre-tournament form remains to be seen, and they will be up against stiff competition from the many European teams looking to cause an upset, including reigning champions Germany.
“Our analysis found that the value of players does not necessarily correlate with how likely a team is to win the tournament. Whoever lifts the trophy in July will need a combination of factors to go right for them, including form, fitness, and luck.”
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@taniwharugby said in 2018 Football World Cup:
According to the report, the risk management firm calculated each club’s probability of winning using the average odds of 25 betting houses.
That's analysis now is it?
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@antipodean I guess it is when you collate data from various sources, however basic, even if any other pleb like you or I could do the same....
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@bovidae said in 2018 Football World Cup:
Time for the favours to be returned in kind:
Former FIFA president Sepp Blatter has said he will attend the World Cup as a guest of Russian president Vladimir Putin.
I guess he'll be attending as a guest in Qatar too
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Real Madrid have found a way to sabotage Spain's chances.
Spain’s World Cup campaign is already in disarray after manager Julen Lopetegui was sacked – just two days before their opening clash with Portugal. A news conference was hastily arranged in the wake of Real Madrid’s announcement that Lopetegui would succeed Zinedine Zidane at the Bernabeu next season.
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@bovidae said in 2018 Football World Cup:
Real Madrid have found a way to sabotage Spain's chances.
Spain’s World Cup campaign is already in disarray after manager Julen Lopetegui was sacked – just two days before their opening clash with Portugal. A news conference was hastily arranged in the wake of Real Madrid’s announcement that Lopetegui would succeed Zinedine Zidane at the Bernabeu next season.
Wow!!! That is incredible!
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@booboo said in 2018 Football World Cup:
My first reaction is that it is petty by the Spanish. Cutting off their nose to spite their face.
Anything more to it?
He signed a contract with RM despite being on contract with the Spanish FA until 2020. I guess they felt they had no choice otherwise it sets a dangerous precedent. Shocking timing though, hopefully the players will rise and get it done. I suppose they will promote an assistant
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Former Spain defender Fernando Hierro has been announced as Lopetegui's replacement.
Hierro's only previous senior coaching role was one season with Oviedo in the Spanish second division, although he was also assistant to Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid before that.
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@kiwimurph said in 2018 Football World Cup:
Former Spain defender Fernando Hierro has been announced as Lopetegui's replacement.
Hierro's only previous senior coaching role was one season with Oviedo in the Spanish second division, although he was also assistant to Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid before that.
Too late to implement anything new at this late stage, the players will run the show now
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@canefan said in 2018 Football World Cup:
@kiwimurph said in 2018 Football World Cup:
Former Spain defender Fernando Hierro has been announced as Lopetegui's replacement.
Hierro's only previous senior coaching role was one season with Oviedo in the Spanish second division, although he was also assistant to Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid before that.
Too late to implement anything new at this late stage, the players will run the show now
it's not a bad bunch of players to fall back on. They are pretty good at the whole "winning trophies" thing
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@bovidae said in 2018 Football World Cup:
Spain was undefeated under Lopetegui (P20, W14, D6).
Yeah. Crazy that RM did this prior to the WC. They simply don't care about the welfare of the national team. Surely they could have waited until after the cup? If people at home feel Spain underachieve in the tourney it will not endear RM to anyone
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@canefan said in 2018 Football World Cup:
@bovidae said in 2018 Football World Cup:
Spain was undefeated under Lopetegui (P20, W14, D6).
Yeah. Crazy that RM did this prior to the WC. They simply don't care about the welfare of the national team. Surely they could have waited until after the cup? If people at home feel Spain underachieve in the tourney it will not endear RM to anyone
They don't really give a shit anyway. That nation is far from united. They'll take national team success but will prefer their club team every day of the week.
