The Ashes
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@catogrande said in The Ashes:
Well this could get interesting. Starc is putting down a couple of crackers each over, and following it with shit.
Lyon is all over left- and right-handers, but nothing is sticking.
Poms could do this... or collapse in a screaming heap.
I'll go for option two please.
In the balance. I'm thinking 60-40 Aus wins. (Maybe 65-35).
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Sorry I would have Oz at 85% minimum. I'd be very happy to be proved wrong but Aussie need effectively 3 wickets because the rest will contribute about 30 runs.
May be a touch of wishful thinking but this c ould go either way.
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It's very evenly poised. I think the Poms have enough depth in Woakes, Ali, Bairstow and Overton to support Root. It's really a 50/50 and will come down to a couple of half-chances in the field IMO.
From a series perspective, I'm kind of hoping the Poms get there. Just a little bit. It's been so long since we've had a genuinely live Ashes series coming into the 5th test, and you'd think if we win then it's highly unlikely England will fight back at the WACA.
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@barbarian said in The Ashes:
It's very evenly poised. I think the Poms have enough depth in Woakes, Ali, Bairstow and Overton to support Root. It's really a 50/50 and will come down to a couple of half-chances in the field IMO.
From a series perspective, I'm kind of hoping the Poms get there. Just a little bit. It's been so long since we've had a genuinely live Ashes series coming into the 5th test, and you'd think if we win then it's highly unlikely England will fight back at the WACA.
Woakes in as nightwatchman and he can bat OK. After that there is both Ali and Bairstow that can change the course of a game, so on paper we're still in it. I don't see this though, I feel that if Root goes then the house of cards falls. I can't really say why I don't have any confidence but It just seems to me that our recent results have flattered us somewhat.
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I was talking to my brother today and we agreed that it's still an 80/20 chance for Australia to win. It looks like the bookmakers give England a marginally better chance than that but still have Aus warm favs. I hope England get up though - it would be nice to still be watching a live series over Christmas.
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@catogrande said in The Ashes:
Well this could get interesting. Starc is putting down a couple of crackers each over, and following it with shit.
Lyon is all over left- and right-handers, but nothing is sticking.
Poms could do this... or collapse in a screaming heap.
I'll go for option two please.
In the balance. I'm thinking 60-40 Aus wins. (Maybe 65-35).
.
Sorry I would have Oz at 85% minimum. I'd be very happy to be proved wrong but Aussie need effectively 3 wickets because the rest will contribute about 30 runs.
They added around 90 from 7 down in the first innings - anything is possible when you have a target to aim at - and also it is entirely possible to focus so hard on the target that you play a dumb shot ....
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Those thinking this was close, or in the balance, were deluded before. Now that they have lost one after 2 balls it's over.
England have at least shown they can knock Aus over, but they are still not good enough with the bat to seriously challenge for a win.
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Its a series between a home team with two really good batsmen and 3 really good bowlers and the rest pretty meh against a team playing away with two really good batsmen and 2 really good bowlers and the rest pretty meh. So in theory it should be close but the reality is the Aussie good 'uns are far more reliable than the Pommy ones - some of whom are also getting long in the tooth / have shit previous form in Oz (or both).
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4 really good bowlers. Cummins is fucking good as well.
And boom, it's over by the 3rd over of the day. 5-0 is still the favourite.
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@mariner4life said in The Ashes:
Those thinking this was close, or in the balance, were deluded before. Now that they have lost one after 2 balls it's over.
England have at least shown they can knock Aus over, but they are still not good enough with the bat to seriously challenge for a win.
Root gone now. 2-nil coming up.
@Virgil is about to have his period
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@mariner4life said in The Ashes:
Those thinking this was close, or in the balance, were deluded before. Now that they have lost one after 2 balls it's over.
England have at least shown they can knock Aus over, but they are still not good enough with the bat to seriously challenge for a win.
Root gone now. 2-nil coming up.
@Virgil is about to have his period
I see the angry lesbian has snuck his average over 61.
That's not a bad effort.
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@nta fair play, you can have all teh fun you want, winners = grinners and all that
BUT
Smith has made a couple of ordinary captaincy decisions in this that has made it a shit load closer than it has any right to be. Are he and Root in a contest to see who can make the biggest blunder of the summer?
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@mariner4life the DRS decisions last night - both the failure to pin Cook early, then the two dud calls for caught behind and LBW on Root - need to be harshly treated. That was poor.
I'm a bit more sanguine about the follow-on decision.
Its very easy to say "send the Poms back in against a swinging ball at night" but there has been little evidence that Starc is bowling well enough to do it. You have the game at your mercy if you survive the evening session with the bat, and if you don't there is still all sorts of records to tumble for England to win.
Risking 130 overs back-to-back might not have delivered the crushing blow we wanted, and then we might have to bowl first in Perth on a deck that hasn't offered a lot lately. Throw in Cummins' injury history and you might go from a potential 2-nil up to maybe 1-all in Perth, with your pace attack cracking at the edges.
As it is, Hazelwood is having a decent spell here, and Lyon is all over the English left-handers no matter where they bat in the order. Cummins is firing at pace. Just Starc needs to tighten his shit up really and we're unassailable.
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Nick I also think the controversy of the follow-on call obscures just how well Anderson bowled that night.
I was there at the ground and it was the best spell of bowling I've seen live. 11 straight overs of pure quality. Not a ball wasted. He had three wickets by the end, but should have had six.
The assumption in the criticism of Smith is that we could have done similar, when last night showed that bowling at night isn't quite as easy as Anderson made it look.
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that fat lady, she is out the back warming up
