Rugby Stats
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@nzzp said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 good post.
Data has its place, but only used appropriately. Wayne Smith famously ignored the tackle stats except for 'dominant tackles'. What we see in the media is dumbed down to the point of uselessness.
Yes, my understanding is that usually this is the fault of the media. I'd definitely think that Sky Sport, at least, would have access to some in-depth information that they don't know what to do with. My guess is that they don't want to make things too complicated for the casual viewer.
This is particularly frustrating as I think the rise of youtube rugby analysis channels such as Squidge definitely suggests that there is demand for a comprehensive rugby analysis show. Unfortunately, while it's relatively easy for someone to get access to footage to analyse, it is hard for the casual producer to get access to in-depth statistics without some heavy financial backing.
In an ideal world, Sky would lead the way here with shows like 'The Breakdown' actually breaking games down, rather than having former players share their opinions without any further analysis.
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@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim personally don't take a hell of a lot of notice of stats as 1; they tell you bugger all and 2; there are so many different ones for same matches that don't match up, you wonder how they get counted by different stats keepers!
I find it better to watch a game of rugby (preferably live) and take notice of how players go. . Watch how quick a player gets off ground to be available to part of next play whether attack or defence.. We actually did a bit of a look at stats when I was coaching, and as a coaching group found them pretty useless in working out how good a player was. For tackles for instance, you could see a player had attempted and made say 6 tackles, but unless stats actually tell you if they were in a position to make difference etc doesn't help all that much, or whether the player actually had to move far to make tackles etc. They good for Joe Bloggs who doesn't really watch the game as a rule, but would never use tham as a tool for picking a team.
I'm a data analyst, so I have to defend the use of stats, or I couldn't have any professional pride - albeit the defense will be closer to a muddled collection of thoughts, rather than a well laid out argument. But, aside from that, I also believe they are of huge value in most areas of life, particularly sport. Though I think it is important to note that we don't necessarily see a lot of the more important stats - though they are likely still collected and circulated to the coaching staff).
Our memories are far from perfect. We can't possibly process all the information we experience, so we use a bunch of shortcuts, which are usually pretty useful. However, these lead to a whole bunch of biases and flaws e.g. confirmation bias, where one looks to confirm information they already believe. The result being that intelligent, informed rugby viewers can see the same game, but come out with different opinions. Stats are an objective alternative that can be used in situations where people might disagree - e.g. if some people think Akira Ioane is lazy, and others disagree you can find stats to resolve this including tackles made, rucks hit, turnovers won, metres run without the ball and compare to other players in a similar position.
I agree bobily, and what you are talking about aren't stats as we know them from reading papers. I agree wholeheartedly if when you have a analytics which coaches etc use. Unless you have a proper run down of tackles that are dominant, those that are in which part of field, meters run and passes that are made that create gaps. rucks that hit and when you do it for a reason etc etc. We at a club obviously couldn't get all thoae stats as you need a computer prgramme to do it, and those that coaches use are not even able to be used until the game has been viewed etc an awful lot of times and data fed into computer.
I stand by what I said the stats you get from press is of no use to a coach at all.Lol my granddaughter is a data analyst too, just did her got her masters for it, so I not allowed to rubbish them too much.
Glad I don't have to convince you that stats are great
Agreed, what you get via the press is of little value - and it doesn't really seem to have evolved over the last 10-15 years, either. I think we really need journalists/presenters to up their game and put out some better content - NZ rugby would only be better off for it.
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@bobily2 I don't think the media have access to much do they? When my mate was coaching at the Tahs, they used Opta stats, but they were useless, so they relied much more on their in-house stats guy where they could get the specific things they wanted (dominant tackles, first 3 to rucks, speed off the ground, repeat efforts etc), and they trusted his accuracy. I'd expect the media just have access to the same ESPC stuff that we do?
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@voodoo said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 I don't think the media have access to much do they? When my mate was coaching at the Tahs, they used Opta stats, but they were useless, so they relied much more on their in-house stats guy where they could get the specific things they wanted (dominant tackles, first 3 to rucks, speed off the ground, repeat efforts etc), and they trusted his accuracy. I'd expect the media just have access to the same ESPC stuff that we do?
It's quite possible I'm wrong.
I'm generalising from what I've heard about AFL journalism in Australia from a sports stats rep - where they said the media weren't interested in reporting on the measures that were found to best predict success.
It's quite possible there is more to the story, too. I do know that Opta record more in depth information than your bog standard tackles made/missed. Perhaps media need to pay more for these, and don't see it as being a good use of money.
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@nzzp said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
Wayne Smith famously ignored the tackle stats except for 'dominant tackles'.
yep, and I expect they used other data too in and around the dominant tackle (not to disimilar to what @bobily2 mentioend re time to get up and over the ball or reset the line etc)
I cant recall the name of the system they used to use, I expect it is multiple generations better now, I saw a piece of software when doing my L2 coaching, and we had to use it as part of the course to analyse a Super rugby game, it all helps, and I believe this is part of what Schmidt is there for? Analyst?
@Kirwan yeah I love stats, I wish rugby gave us more like US sports do!!
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That was a great post. I'm pretty big into looking at stats, mainly because I like to test theories that I derive from watching, although in the last three years the number of places putting out stats has dropped off a cliff, which sucks balls.
i was looking at the Opta stats page last week and was tempted to see what a quote would look like for a personal 'rugby blogger', but I don't want to be murdered by my wife.
All of @duluth 's work collating teamsheets and past results has been really great for looking into patterns of win results etc.
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I thought that the emphasis in rugby analysis had shifted from a pure stats base to now generating footage of individual player actions for the analysts and coaches to review back with the player after the game. So it is now all about the effectiveness of the tackle or pass or action at the breakdown and also about how quickly a player is getting into an effective position in attack or defence.
I don't like all the harshly critical conjecture from the keyboard. What would be more useful is knowing what techniques are employed by various coaches and teams and how well they are deployed. Can any insiders help inform the forum?
I was involved as an analyst in the early days of super rugby and have kept an interest here. The stats now reported on TV and on rugby websites are largely disappointing and not much has changed there. But I had thought the detailed player review tapes were widely used, but not shared publicly for obvious reasons. Can anyone shed more light on what is actually common at various levels now? -
@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
i was looking at the Opta stats page last week and was tempted to see what a quote would look like for a personal 'rugby blogger', but I don't want to be murdered by my wife.
I looked into this once (different company) and wasn't given a price, but I was given the impression it would cost me tens of thousands - they didn't go over what this would cover, as it presumably wasn't worth their time.
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The Evolution of Rugby: A Statistical Analysis
Rugby Union is almost an unrecognisable sport from the one which saw its first Test match played back in 1871. Read on as we use Stats Perform’s detailed rugby data to unearth the major ways the sport has evolved.
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@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
i was looking at the Opta stats page last week and was tempted to see what a quote would look like for a personal 'rugby blogger', but I don't want to be murdered by my wife.
I looked into this once (different company) and wasn't given a price, but I was given the impression it would cost me tens of thousands - they didn't go over what this would cover, as it presumably wasn't worth their time.
downvote, but as I expected.
If any geeks around here are looking for a hobby, lifting the data for ESPN stats while they are still up could be a good idea. iI haven't figured out a way to fold it into a research project yet...
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I hate stats
Nerds always ruin sports. Look what those poindexters did to the NBA!
I refuse to change my belief that Rugby is too fluid with too many variables to be a stats driven game.
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@mariner4life Agree re rugby but one of the joys of cricket is a deep dive into the stats
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@mariner4life dunno, I think there are trends and patterns that assist in developing game plans to get oppositions to react certain ways or force them into decisions that are more beneficial to you.
But agree rugby is fluid and anything but predictable, and when you input the variables, the science will struggle, but then analysing will always happen, I mean what the hell do we do here?
We watch games, see scores, see what stats we get access to, use our minds to analyse and determine what should have happened, or think will happen.
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@dogmeat said in Rugby Stats:
@mariner4life Agree re rugby but one of the joys of cricket is a deep dive into the stats
Cricket is way different. So is baseball. So is even American Football.
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@mariner4life What about league? Dynamic, but much more structured and uniform than union.
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@tim dunno
Yes more static and structured. Be interesting to see what they actually use rather than thr usual "metres after contact" and "metres" you seeEven the basic tackle stats are misleading as the 2rd guy in gets a stat for little more than flopping on the ruck (hello Nathan Hindmarsh)
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Stats are fucking great for planning in any sport that is a series of one-on-one battles.
I feel like for fuid team sports there is a place, but my gut tells me it's more team analytics. I feel like endless video would be more worthwhile.
But again I have zero fucking idea. I am guessing what is used and how. Be interesting for someone to actually tell us (fat chance of that from anyone still in the game)
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@mariner4life said in Rugby Stats:
@tim dunno
Yes more static and structured. Be interesting to see what they actually use rather than thr usual "metres after contact" and "metres" you seeEven the basic tackle stats are misleading as the 2rd guy in gets a stat for little more than flopping on the ruck (hello Nathan Hindmarsh)
Which can also be crucial for slowing down the next play and is actually beneficial - but I agree with your point.
I just don't trust published stats these days (obviously unless they suit my argument
). The anti Akira brigade were using stats to claim Akira ran no metres in a test this year when any fool with eyes saw him run metres.There's also the difference between someone making tackles and Sam Cane nailing someone early in a test match that makes them think about it later in the match (are you fucking listening Hansen?)
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@bobily2 said in Rugby Stats:
@voodoo said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 I don't think the media have access to much do they? When my mate was coaching at the Tahs, they used Opta stats, but they were useless, so they relied much more on their in-house stats guy where they could get the specific things they wanted (dominant tackles, first 3 to rucks, speed off the ground, repeat efforts etc), and they trusted his accuracy. I'd expect the media just have access to the same ESPC stuff that we do?
It's quite possible I'm wrong.
I'm generalising from what I've heard about AFL journalism in Australia from a sports stats rep - where they said the media weren't interested in reporting on the measures that were found to best predict success.
It's quite possible there is more to the story, too. I do know that Opta record more in depth information than your bog standard tackles made/missed. Perhaps media need to pay more for these, and don't see it as being a good use of money.
Most of the AFL media is more interested in selling the product which is understandable given the amount of money that is paid for rights. They delve a little because the audience these days demands more (as opposed to the 80s fans when the only individual stat worth looking at was goals kicked).
But there are a couple of decent shows on Fox Footy and SEN radio that really get into the nitty gritty and demonstrate they have more stats than what you can find on the web. I know a couple of AFL insiders that also said they rely heavily on their own in-house club stats because they tend look at three or four things in combination as part of their post-game and preparation analysis.
Part of me finds it extremely interesting but part of me also finds it a bit sad because a game like AFL has become so manufactured almost. Rugby too.
