Coronavirus - UK
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
So this is what it was all for
0.025% of the population
!50,000 people died, but how many people stayed alive due to the actions the government took?
That's the real question and, as we can't re-invent time, we can't know for sure and governments can only take action with the best info available at the time.
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@mikethesnow so can we steelman this argument?
Freedom of Information request? Yes official procedure.Office of National Statistics? Yes official trustworthy institution.
"Please can you advise on deaths purely from Covid with no other underlying causes". Straightforward unambiguous question/request
17,371. The answer/response from the ONS.
Average age of death from covid last year. 82.5. That's beyond the normal life expectancy
700,000 Brits die every year.
You think that's a fair summation Mike?
Poses a lot of questions about covid responses not just from Britain.
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@victor-meldrew could that be answered by comparing with other countries or areas with the same population size?
Factoring in the expertise of intervention of the British response, that would suggest that the equivalent population size death number would be greater than 150k.Just a suggestion, and about as far as my statisticalanalysis knowledge goes🙂.
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@siam said in Coronavirus - UK:
Office of National Statistics? Yes official trustworthy institution.
"Please can you advise on deaths purely from Covid with no other underlying causes". Straightforward unambiguous question/request
17,371. The answer/response from the ONS.
Average age of death from covid last year. 82.5. That's beyond the normal life expectancy
700,000 Brits die every year.Here's another few questions:
How many people would have been denied life-saving medical care had Covid been allowed to let rip and hospitals swamped?
How many people below the average life-expectancy would have died?
How much money would be saved if we had only focussed medical resources and public health actions on those below average life-expectancy?
How many people would have died if the authorities had taken no action and life was left to go on as normal?
What would have been the average age of those people?
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@victor-meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
@siam said in Coronavirus - UK:
Office of National Statistics? Yes official trustworthy institution.
"Please can you advise on deaths purely from Covid with no other underlying causes". Straightforward unambiguous question/request
17,371. The answer/response from the ONS.
Average age of death from covid last year. 82.5. That's beyond the normal life expectancy
700,000 Brits die every year.Here's another few questions:
How many people would have been denied life-saving medical care had Covid been allowed to let rip and hospitals swamped?
How many people below the average life-expectancy would have died?
How much money would be saved if we had only focussed medical resources and public health actions on those below average life-expectancy?
How many people would have died if the authorities had taken no action and life was left to go on as normal?
What would have been the average age of those people?
hmm, me thinks you're not being fair dinkum, but, since you asked, the answer to everything is obviously 42
How about we catch up in 2 years time and see where we are after 17,371 (not a number I calculated) deaths "of" covid?
Stay Safe till then mate
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@siam said in Coronavirus - UK:
hmm, me thinks you're not being fair dinkum
Nah, you raised some good points which simply prompted to muse on other questions..
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@majorrage im completely against mandates and all but i can agree with that for sure. i'd sign it happily to end mandates and rules as britain has done.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - UK:
Nah, that the Millenium Bug retrospective argument.
You'd be amazed at the number of people business - even at Director level - who thought Y2K was a hoax.
One bank (Barclays I think) used to change the date to I Jan 2000 on a sandboxed system and run reports as a demo to show the problems. The reports came out in pre-decimal Pounds, shillings and pence.....
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@victor-meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - UK:
Nah, that the Millenium Bug retrospective argument.
You'd be amazed at the number of people business - even at Director level - who thought Y2K was a hoax.
One bank (Barclays I think) used to change the date to I Jan 2000 on a sandboxed system and run reports as a demo to show the problems. The reports came out in pre-decimal Pounds, shillings and pence.....
I was pretty busy during that period fixing all sorts of issues. We nerds just did a great job fixing everything, you are welcome.
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@muddyriver said in Coronavirus - UK:
@rapido Florida is a great case study, be interestin to see their "of" vs "with" numbers.
But what does of and with even mean?
I haven't looked at the stuff above where Siam has pulled the obviously completely stupid number of 17,371 from.
I mean if you classify pneumonia as dieing with (rather than of), then both this pandemic and (1919 influenza) will be halved or three-quartered (my guesses).
I don't know if Florida would be a good comparison for a lace like UK, maybe Queensland would be a good fit. But TBH there are a lot of variables that can lead to uneven effects in different places.
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@victor-meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - UK:
Nah, that the Millenium Bug retrospective argument.
You'd be amazed at the number of people business - even at Director level - who thought Y2K was a hoax.
One bank (Barclays I think) used to change the date to I Jan 2000 on a sandboxed system and run reports as a demo to show the problems. The reports came out in pre-decimal Pounds, shillings and pence.....
I was pretty busy during that period fixing all sorts of issues. We nerds just did a great job fixing everything, you are welcome.
I withdrew and extra 100 quid out of the ATM just before new year, just in case you nerds stuffed it up. My version of doomsday prepping.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - UK:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@victor-meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - UK:
Nah, that the Millenium Bug retrospective argument.
You'd be amazed at the number of people business - even at Director level - who thought Y2K was a hoax.
One bank (Barclays I think) used to change the date to I Jan 2000 on a sandboxed system and run reports as a demo to show the problems. The reports came out in pre-decimal Pounds, shillings and pence.....
I was pretty busy during that period fixing all sorts of issues. We nerds just did a great job fixing everything, you are welcome.
I withdrew and extra 100 quid out of the ATM just before new year, just in case you nerds stuffed it up. My version of doomsday prepping.
Risky, you could have ended up owing thousands
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@rapido it was an official request so it should be stated somewhere surely.
obviously secondary illness after covid should be counted as covid deaths so who knows how they got the figure.
listening to it now, i believe its the people with no medical conditions that could not have caused their death.
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@muddyriver said in Coronavirus - UK:
@rapido it was an official request so it should be stated somewhere surely.
obviously secondary illness after covid should be counted as covid deaths so who knows how they got the figure.
listening to it now, i believe its the people with no medical conditions that could not have caused their death.
And the doctor made that clear that it was blurry distinction as after 60, most people have a secondary illness of some description. It's not as easy as Farage was trying to make out to compare those figures.
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Dunno the situation in Aus or NZ but would assume similar to the UK. On the death certificate all known conditions that could have had an influence on death are noted but in descending order.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - UK:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@victor-meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - UK:
Nah, that the Millenium Bug retrospective argument.
You'd be amazed at the number of people business - even at Director level - who thought Y2K was a hoax.
One bank (Barclays I think) used to change the date to I Jan 2000 on a sandboxed system and run reports as a demo to show the problems. The reports came out in pre-decimal Pounds, shillings and pence.....
I was pretty busy during that period fixing all sorts of issues. We nerds just did a great job fixing everything, you are welcome.
I withdrew and extra 100 quid out of the ATM just before new year, just in case you nerds stuffed it up. My version of doomsday prepping.
I know a practical joker who stuck fake labels on lift buttons at 11:59 on 31 Dec 1999 in a London hotel..... Dined out on the story for months.
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
And the doctor made that clear that it was blurry distinction as after 60, most people have a secondary illness of some description. It's not as easy as Farage was trying to make out to compare those figures.
Yep. People like Chris Whitty and others have said we won't get a true indication of Covid deaths for some time until excess deaths data is in. I did read that so far it correlates with the official stats to a major degree though
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@victor-meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
And the doctor made that clear that it was blurry distinction as after 60, most people have a secondary illness of some description. It's not as easy as Farage was trying to make out to compare those figures.
Yep. People like Chris Whitty and others have said we won't get a true indication of Covid deaths for some time until excess deaths data is in. I did read that so far it correlates with the official stats to a major degree though
As of December 26th:
- 147,940 covid deaths
- 151,400 excess deaths
For a long time during the pandemic, UK actually had about 20k more covid deaths than excess deaths. But now they have evened up in the latest numbers. Don't know why, would be interesting.
I would actually expect UK to have about 20k covid deaths per year more than the excess number, as that would be the rough amount of displaced pneumonia deaths caused by covid instead of other seasonal viruses (If use NZ as an example of about 1800 excess lives per year per 5m people).
It's weird that UK counting method has cause the most controversy in the English speaking media, but has looked to me, to actually be the most accurate real time numbers in the entire world for most of the pandemic (For those countries without elimination-type policies where counting was hard during the pressure times).
Several years after the fact the numbers will be more refined, but for real time policy making on the hoof, UK had actually ended up with a surprisingly accurate method.