Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@anonymous said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby What is Level 4 meant to accomplish at ~60 cases a day when we know we can't get to 0? Get it back to 30? Seems like a complete waste of time and resources.
There's going to be a lot more than that when we're living with covid. If that is his recommendation, then it looks like he's the wrong person for handling the transition.
Going by the article, the point would be harder suppression, not elimination.
It's a cabinet meeting, they get a range of policy advice on everything. The DG's advice on behalf of the Ministry of Health has mostly assumed pre-eminence on Covid, but it hasn't been followed on everything (although it has been followed a lot), and ultimately it's cabinet's decision, not the ministry's.
Personally, I'd go to step 2 today, step 3 in 2 weeks, and replace the level system 2 weeks after that (it's being replaced at some point, probably by traffic lights, may as well give everyone 3-4 weeks to get vaccinated).
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@godder Yeah - it would be buying time - for a few more people to get their first jab, but quite a lot of people to get their 2nd jab and develop the antibodies.
In 2 weeks maybe they'd get back to something like anonymous' 30 cases per day as opposed to having something like 300 cases per day on the current trajectory.
One of the professors on TV last night reckoned about 1 in 10 people in the current outbreak are being hospitalized - so that would get things back to 20 hospital admissions per week, rather than 200.
It's pretty much all about stopping the hospitals from being overwhelmed now, I think.
I don't think they'll go for it today though.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I see headlines talking about a 'circuit breaker' L4 for Auckland...that will go down well.
Will go down like a cup of hot sick. As will having Cindy tell us "You've been naughty Auckland, you couldn't follow the rules."
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@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
They'd be better off having the police patrol more and start dishing out the fines.
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@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
They'd be better off having the police patrol more and start dishing out the fines.
problem is, the Police are stretched already, even more so as they are manning about 20 or so locations 24/7 around Northland/Auckland/Waikato borders, little wonder the gangs are making hay!
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@billy-tell it’s facts mate. Review the stats and you would understand. Your isolated in NZ. Covid equals death to you guys. It’s not teh case.
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@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 4 for 2 weeks rejected based on public health advice that L4 would not reduce more than L3 - thanks Dr Bloomfield. Current restrictions remain for 2 weeks.
If Bloomfield's public health advice is that L4 wouldn't do anything L3 can't do then that raises two questions:
- Who suggested raising it? A suitably qualified person? Someone for whom such a change would have no effect?
- What's the point of L4 if the more restrictive rules don't have a measurable effect?
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 4 for 2 weeks rejected based on public health advice that L4 would not reduce more than L3 - thanks Dr Bloomfield. Current restrictions remain for 2 weeks.
If Bloomfield's public health advice is that L4 wouldn't do anything L3 can't do then that raises two questions:
- Who suggested raising it? A suitably qualified person? Someone for whom such a change would have no effect?
- What's the point of L4 if the more restrictive rules don't have a measurable effect?
- A collection of epidemiologists and other experts.
- Probably none now hence why we aren't going back to it. Originally, a lot less was understood about Covid transmission, so those rules were an abundance of caution.
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@broughie said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@billy-tell it’s facts mate. Review the stats and you would understand. Your isolated in NZ. Covid equals death to you guys. It’s not teh case.
He lives in Switzerland.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 4 for 2 weeks rejected based on public health advice that L4 would not reduce more than L3 - thanks Dr Bloomfield. Current restrictions remain for 2 weeks.
If Bloomfield's public health advice is that L4 wouldn't do anything L3 can't do then that raises two questions:
- Who suggested raising it? A suitably qualified person? Someone for whom such a change would have no effect?
- What's the point of L4 if the more restrictive rules don't have a measurable effect?
It's the classic bait and switch of dishonest politicians. Leak a worse option, and then when you announce the one you wanted to do all the time you look like a hero.
They think people are stupid.
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@antipodean Seems to me that Level 4 pushed the case numbers down in this current outbreak and now they've gone to Level 3 they're going up again.
So my guess is that if they went back to Level 4 they would push the numbers back down - as long as everyone obeyed the rules.
And that's the key clause.
Any good you did would probably be offset by the protests you'd spark.
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@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 4 for 2 weeks rejected based on public health advice that L4 would not reduce more than L3 - thanks Dr Bloomfield. Current restrictions remain for 2 weeks.
If Bloomfield's public health advice is that L4 wouldn't do anything L3 can't do then that raises two questions:
- Who suggested raising it? A suitably qualified person? Someone for whom such a change would have no effect?
- What's the point of L4 if the more restrictive rules don't have a measurable effect?
- A collection of epidemiologists and other experts.
- Probably none now hence why we aren't going back to it. Originally, a lot less was understood about Covid transmission, so those rules were an abundance of caution.
Perhaps there's something I'm not getting here.
Cabinet now takes submissions from random strangers, or these people are Bloomfield's staff?
Are these the same experts that developed the original rules? That ignored recent experience a couple of hours flight time away and didn't bother updating them?
This hardly seems a professional and competent response from my vantage point.
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 4 for 2 weeks rejected based on public health advice that L4 would not reduce more than L3 - thanks Dr Bloomfield. Current restrictions remain for 2 weeks.
If Bloomfield's public health advice is that L4 wouldn't do anything L3 can't do then that raises two questions:
- Who suggested raising it? A suitably qualified person? Someone for whom such a change would have no effect?
- What's the point of L4 if the more restrictive rules don't have a measurable effect?
It's the classic bait and switch of dishonest politicians. Leak a worse option, and then when you announce the one you wanted to do all the time you look like a hero.
They think people are stupid.
I haven't seen anything from any Cabinet ministers to suggest they were ever seriously entertaining it. If anything, my impression was that the experts were going public about the possibility of going to level 4 because the experts thought ministers weren't listening to them on that subject.
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@chris-b said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@antipodean Seems to me that Level 4 pushed the case numbers down in this current outbreak and now they've gone to Level 3 they're going up again.
So my guess is that if they went back to Level 4 they would push the numbers back down - as long as everyone obeyed the rules.
And that's the key clause.
Any good you did would probably be offset by the protests you'd spark.
That aligns with my interpretation in NSW and Victoria. It matters not how restrictive they are if they won't be adhered to. And if you know that, don't risk burning out the will of the population on a fool's errand.
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@antipodean Yeah - I don't think they're missing that point either.
If you look how cautious they were about letting the South Island etc. drop from L4 to L3 when we had zero cases - and then a few weeks later, they let Auckland drop - even though there were still plenty of cases.
I think they're balancing what the population will wear.
If the Auckland hospitals start overflowing with covid patients, then I think the population would accept the need for a circuit-breaker.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 4 for 2 weeks rejected based on public health advice that L4 would not reduce more than L3 - thanks Dr Bloomfield. Current restrictions remain for 2 weeks.
If Bloomfield's public health advice is that L4 wouldn't do anything L3 can't do then that raises two questions:
- Who suggested raising it? A suitably qualified person? Someone for whom such a change would have no effect?
- What's the point of L4 if the more restrictive rules don't have a measurable effect?
- A collection of epidemiologists and other experts.
- Probably none now hence why we aren't going back to it. Originally, a lot less was understood about Covid transmission, so those rules were an abundance of caution.
Perhaps there's something I'm not getting here.
Cabinet now takes submissions from random strangers, or these people are Bloomfield's staff?
Are these the same experts that developed the original rules? That ignored recent experience a couple of hours flight time away and didn't bother updating them?
This hardly seems a professional and competent response from my vantage point.
Cabinet receives advice from ministries/departments and elsewhere as a matter of course. The public service doesn't have a monopoly on expertise (or anything close to it) - universities, for example, are loaded with experts who are not public servants (although they are state-funded, they are also covered by different legislation).
The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) collates a lot of material for Cabinet meetings - https://dpmc.govt.nz/ . They have a Covid-19 group here https://dpmc.govt.nz/our-business-units/covid-19-group .
There are also some Covid groups mentioned here: https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and-updates/independent-advisory-groups/ .