Coronavirus - Australia
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@nta said in Coronavirus - Australia:
NSW skips straight past the 1300s into the 1400s. How very renaissance.
Fucking awesome day here, too, and I've got the day off. At least I can exercise nonstop from 0500-2100.
which I assume you're doing?
Nah. Donated blood/plasma so no exertion - except for the meeting just now with Parramatta Eels over the swanky new facilities we're about to get for being co-located in their precinct. I've practically spooged a marathon.
Will piss rain tomorrow and Sunday apparently, so perfect for watching rugby
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From the ABC:
Interestingly data shows that WA and Qld may not be the miscreants this graph shows them to be as they're administering the doses they have allocated:
From health.gov.au -
@barbarian @mariner4life Watching this Boise State v UCF college football game on ESPN right now? Great game with thousands enjoying the contest.
Florida, where this game is being played - 20,000+ new Covid cases and 1300+ deaths yesterday. 53% fully vaccinated, 64% first dose. Their community has been open for some time now.
The modelling and and assumptions in the Doherty Institute report are fine, and people do need something to look forward too.
But ultimately itās going to come down to what is āacceptable riskā judged by the ācommunityā. For a risk averse country like Australia (and I put NZ in the same boat), that means lockdowns. For a gotcha media that is waiting for anyone to fail, that means high levels of restrictions, idiotic debates about zero Covid. It means inflexibility in policy response. It means blame games. It means division.
Iām all for public debate, critical analysis, and even calling out blatant misinformation, but here Melbourne and in Sydney, people need a more reasonable response where kids can get back to school, people can have opportunities to interact and engage in activities that help them balance lifeās demands. People need that hope because after weeks and months of lockdowns, the discontent and hopelessness is rising.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Ultimately we are going to have to accept a level of death in the community. We've put that discussion off for as long as we could, but now we need to face up to it.
Yep, and I think they should be talking numbers that die from other infections as well, so people begin to understand that nothing will stop people dying but the best way to return to a normal post covid life is to learn to live with it.
Last night our news focused on Britain's highest daily death toll in months despite high vaccination levels, but what information isn't being given is how many of the 38,000 new infections that day as well as the 100 deaths, how many of them are unvaccinated, but equally as importantly, how.many are in hospital due to covid.
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@act-crusader Yeah, no minimising here, we've been through it you know? Including the months of lockdowns, no physical schooling, political bullshit and over promising, chaos on exam assessments and university admissions, plus accepting thousands of deaths as a sad reality even after vaccination. Just coming out the other side. People are still masking in shops etc but that's very gradually coming down. Most people thankfully see it as a social responsibility rather than an individual freedom. International travel is back. We just want to get on with life again.
I get it, the Doherty Institute report is hopeful. That's really what I'm hearing, so okay but ... I'm waiting for the next revision though, trying to understand the actual plan.
I hope we can get to 80% vaccinated across all of Australia. And NZ. It would be one hell of an achievement.
I certainly wish Australia all the best as my Dad is in WA now. Double vaccinated but 80+, has been in hospital on oxygen with respiratory issues in the last few years, definitely vulnerable. If he gets CoVid his chances are... really (really) not good I suspect.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Ultimately we are going to have to accept a level of death in the community. We've put that discussion off for as long as we could, but now we need to face up to it.
Yep, and I think they should be talking numbers that die from other infections as well, so people begin to understand that nothing will stop people dying but the best way to return to a normal post covid life is to learn to live with it.
Last night our news focused on Britain's highest daily death toll in months despite high vaccination levels, but what information isn't being given is how many of the 38,000 new infections that day as well as the 100 deaths, how many of them are unvaccinated, but equally as importantly, how.many are in hospital due to covid.
Guardian has daily UK hospitalisation and ICU numbers. It's hardly secret, in fact quite the opposite. It's freely available here.
Part of the reason not (over) stressing deaths vaccinated vs unvaccinated is that when you have a high vaccination rate, many of your deaths are elderly and vulnerable who have been fully vaccinated, but are "breakout" infections due to all the vaccines not being 100% effective... which is just normal.
Think about it. If you have 100% population vaccinated, 100% of your CoVid deaths are vaccinated, right? Does this mean vaccines don't work, no... they are not perfect, but they do hugely reduce hospitalisation and mortality as a percentage of cases. They also lower cases and hence overall risk of infection too.
There have been lots of articles over here laying this out so people get it and don't freak out, else the stats can be misleadingly used to feed an anti-vax narrative
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@landp but this is nz with low vaccination rates and a fear of covid....
My point was our media took a very small snapshot, and plenty still look to our media expecting balanced reporting.
I have family in the UK too.
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@taniwharugby I misspoke, no ICU data on the Guardian!!
It is published and very available though either UK Government or Public Health England dashboards. I really need to find it again. Last I heard CoVid was occupying 20% of ICU capacity but maybe that's higher now. Nowhere near previous waves.
The high number of deaths was noted here, but no dramas since there was a public holiday MMonda, some reporting gets deferred. Was that mentioned in NZ?
I have no idea what UK narrative the NZ press is trying to feed. With CoVid you can always find negative news or a negative angle if you really want it???? Just look around the world... if not UK check US, Israel etc. You'll find a negative angle somewhere because CoVid is a nightmare to manage period.
The honest narrative needed may be that vaccines are bloody good, but not perfect? And the explain why...
There are clear statistics on how much they reduce infection, hospitalisation and mortality per vaccine. The statistics on hospitalisation and mortality post vaccination are (still) HUGELY age dependent. Most people understand this over here. Plus yes... vaccines appear to wane, Pfizer rather more than AZ. There are initial numbers on that from Israel and UK. Boosters may be needed etc.
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@landp again, it is just how our media portrayed it...UK with huge vaccination numbers had highest deaths in months.
Yeah they mentioned it was a Bank Holiday weekend.
Not sure of any agenda, just poor reporting, I mean they are very much in Labours pocket, so you'd think with Cindy pushing vaccinations they'd message it appropriately, or at least provide context.
Then 10 mins later they show packed football stadiums in the UK....
I do try to not watch the news any more, but tougher to do when you are in Lockdown, and Mrs TR watches it.
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@taniwharugby Its okay, I don't read the NZ media much. Just wondered if there's a vibe of "see what happens if you open up too fast like the UK"
Except if you scratch beneath the surface you'll find a pretty fast UK summer reopening was decided to help flatten an expected winter spike and help spread the load on NHS healthcare. Some very joined up science-healthcare thinking.
Everyone opening up is now winging it. For example Israel has huge case rates now, crazy high, despite good vaccination rates. But they have 100% Pfizer, whereas UK is majority AZ then Pfizer plus a dash of Moderna. Could be that Pfizer (mRNA? ) vaccines wane pretty fast vs AZ? There's some UK data supporting that.
Israel is giving Pfizer boosters to everyone, UK only giving boosters
to at risk groups and elderly. I haven't dug into why... yet.It's complex to follow the science, but I wish more journalists would at least try to instead of just reporting headline numbers.
Rant over... sorry. Been a long 18 months!! š
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@landp said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@taniwharugby Its okay, I don't read the NZ media much. Just wondered if there's a vibe of "see what happens if you open up too fast like the UK"
Except if you scratch beneath the surface you'll find a pretty fast UK summer reopening was decided to help flatten an expected winter spike and help spread the load on NHS healthcare. Some very joined up science-healthcare thinking.
Everyone opening up is now winging it. For example Israel has huge case rates now, crazy high, despite good vaccination rates. But they have 100% Pfizer, whereas UK is majority AZ then Pfizer plus a dash of Moderna. Could be that Pfizer (mRNA? ) vaccines wane pretty fast vs AZ? There's some UK data supporting that.
Israel is giving Pfizer boosters to everyone, UK only giving boosters
to at risk groups and elderly. I haven't dug into why... yet.It's complex to follow the science, but I wish more journalists would at least try to instead of just reporting headline numbers.
Rant over... sorry. Been a long 18 months!! š
Never underestimate how many in the UK are being kept alive by modern medicine.
I expect to see continued deaths 'with COVID' as the next cohort of old and/or immuno-compromised get exposed to new variants.
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@landp said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Just wondered if there's a vibe of "see what happens if you open up too fast like the UK"
Pretty much the angle...seems there is a portion of nz who think the best way to deal with covid is to shut out borders, completely, probably a larger portion than the just open up and let shit run group...
Our govt and media have done a good job making people very scared.
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Exclusive: Covid-19 hospitalisations three times higher than reported
The Saturday Paper logo SEARCH SUBSCRIBELOGIN The Saturday Paper logo NEWS OPINION CULTURE LIFE FOOD PUZZLES SPORT POST PODCASTS EDITIONS SEPTEMBER 4 ā 10, 2021 | No. 365 NEWS Victoria and NSW are at a crisis point, with Covid-19 hospitalisations being underreported and cascading impacts on ambulance services and medical staffing. By Rick Morton. Exclusive: Covid-19 hospitalisations three times higher than reported A Covid-19 patient being cared for in the intensive care unit of St Vincentās Hospital, Sydney.CREDIT: AAP / SUPPLIED BY KATE GERAGHTY / SMH / ST VINCENTāS HOSPITAL The rate of Covid-19 hospitalisations in New South Wales is being reported at one-third of the real figure, with the actual numbers being masked by a decision to only report those who end up in medical facilities, and not the thousands receiving care under the stateās āhospital in the homeā arrangements. On Tuesday, Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the āmost recent figure I have for the rate of hospitalisation was 5.5 per cent in terms of cases converting to hospitalisationā. The real figure, however, is about 15 per cent, according to medical experts and a briefing provided to national cabinet. On Thursday, the state reported almost 1000 people with Covid-19 were in hospital and 160 of those were receiving the most complex form of healthcare in intensive care units. But that figure leaves out almost 1700 people who are receiving hospital-grade care for coronavirus in their own homes in NSW. Most of those are being monitored by staff from the swamped Westmead Hospital in the stateās Western Sydney Local Health District. Under these arrangements, patients who would otherwise be on the hospital ward are instead given oxygen and other support at home with scheduled visits from hospital staff. At least eight people in the state have died at home since the Delta outbreak began. Some, who were being given home care, deteriorated so quickly from mild illness to death that there was no time for even an ambulance to be called. The coroner is investigating these deaths. The Saturday Paper has also been provided access to the nationās Critical Health Resource Information System (CHRIS), which provides real-time data on the use of intensive care beds in every state and territory hospital network. On Thursday, 80 per cent or 689 of the 855 staffed ICU beds in NSW were full. Of these, 170 ā or one-quarter of the occupied beds ā are being used to treat Covid-19 patients. The situation in Victoria is worse. More than 90 per cent of ICU beds are full there. Hospitals are struggling to encourage nurses who worked in last yearās outbreak to help again. ...
There's more, but I find that info interesting in the context of what our infected: hospitalisation rate is.
There's lots of research to suggest that home care is the best option for a lot of people who don't need to be in a facility. So this is a good thing in a lot of ways.
But it definitely isn't if you take a sudden turn and need emergency care.
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@landp said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
the gut feel of a few state CHOs will decide where we go
Good luck, hang in there, and I mean it genuinely. You will get through it, somehow.
It seems in Oz, on healthcare and state borders the Feds can only try to herd the cats (states) but the state has the real ownership and responsibility, is that how it works?
There's superficial UK comparisons with Scottish and Welsh devolved responsibilities on healthcare here but ... nah ... UK Covid numbers and vaccination rates have been relatively similar across UK so no huge differences on direction compared to NSW vs WA.
Until they need to shift blame.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@landp I think the main issue with people attacking Doherty model (which I've only read parts of, admittedly), seems to be:
- The assumption that upon reaching 70% we will remove all restrictions. That's clearly not going to happen, and
- We will hit 70% double vacced and then go no further.
Some of the assumptions you mention are based on a flat rate of 70% vaccinated, which is never going to be flat. It's going to keep rising and as a result deaths will fall. Now it clearly won't get to 100% coverage but some of the more dire prognostications will never come to pass.
Ultimately we are going to have to accept a level of death in the community. We've put that discussion off for as long as we could, but now we need to face up to it.
Jeanette Young won't accept ANY. Caught her at the QLD presser yesterday getting quite pissy.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@landp said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Just wondered if there's a vibe of "see what happens if you open up too fast like the UK"
Pretty much the angle...seems there is a portion of nz who think the best way to deal with covid is to shut out borders, completely, probably a larger portion than the just open up and let shit run group...
Our govt and media have done a good job making people very scared.
Yeah, I wondered about that. There's an undercurrent of enjoying isolation in NZ culture even without CoVid. I can't explain but I get it 100% ... grew up there secondary and Uni and started working. Family all still there. I went back a few years for family reasons.
Anyway life here is "pretty normal now + masks in shops". My daughter is at a Prom tonight etc, off to Uni in a few weeks. We went to Portugal on holiday etc.
But if NZ still wants to stay isolated and keep MIQ, I'm sure there will be enough bad news for a few years yet to support a narrative to stay isolated .. . winter wave in UK and Europe, then probably US and then you'll have Asia and then bad news in Africa to come. I'm serious.
Once NZ is vaccinated, it's a purely cultural issue because reality opening up is still cases, hospitalizations, death and how fast to deal with it? And ICU capacity yeah... that's a key constraint. Really key.
Writing this I can feel I have changed. We have changed. The western world and societies outside NZ have changed. The first lockdown in UK all traffic stopped, all air traffic too, almost zero. In London all you heard was ambulance sirens. And another. And another. Ongoing for weeks at least. Scary because you knew odds on it was CoVid.
I'm still scared of death but now I accept its inevitably much more. I know in winter annually
in UK thousands will die of flu. I'm not heartless but I expect tens of thousands more UK deaths from CoVid, mainly elderly and vulnerable but deaths.I'm not sure Western society is more caring tbh but yeah, we probably understand, maybe accept, the inevitably of death more?? A bit battered, a bit less scared also ... we want to live again with no lockdowns.
That was cathartic š
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@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
On the subject of scaring people, got a text from UAP at 8am telling me about a vaccine adverse events report. Craig Kelly is a electoral adverse event.
Yeah, a few of my mates have got that too (or a similar text, doesn't mention the report, I wonder where they're getting the phone numbers from?
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@nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
On the subject of scaring people, got a text from UAP at 8am telling me about a vaccine adverse events report. Craig Kelly is a electoral adverse event.
Yeah, a few of my mates have got that too (or a similar text, doesn't mention the report, I wonder where they're getting the phone numbers from?
This is the second one I've got in the last few days. First one was "you can't trust Labor or the Liberals", which is a message everyone can relate to. Now they're starting with the disinformation phase.
Kelly claims he didn't purchase any numbers, and they're all just randomly generated. I hope that's true, because imagine being identified as a potential UAP voter