Coronavirus - Australia
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@landp I think the main issue with people attacking Doherty model (which I've only read parts of, admittedly), seems to be:
- The assumption that upon reaching 70% we will remove all restrictions. That's clearly not going to happen, and
- We will hit 70% double vacced and then go no further.
Some of the assumptions you mention are based on a flat rate of 70% vaccinated, which is never going to be flat. It's going to keep rising and as a result deaths will fall. Now it clearly won't get to 100% coverage but some of the more dire prognostications will never come to pass.
Ultimately we are going to have to accept a level of death in the community. We've put that discussion off for as long as we could, but now we need to face up to it.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@nta said in Coronavirus - Australia:
NSW skips straight past the 1300s into the 1400s. How very renaissance.
Fucking awesome day here, too, and I've got the day off. At least I can exercise nonstop from 0500-2100.
which I assume you're doing?
Nah. Donated blood/plasma so no exertion - except for the meeting just now with Parramatta Eels over the swanky new facilities we're about to get for being co-located in their precinct. I've practically spooged a marathon.
Will piss rain tomorrow and Sunday apparently, so perfect for watching rugby
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From the ABC:
Interestingly data shows that WA and Qld may not be the miscreants this graph shows them to be as they're administering the doses they have allocated:
From health.gov.au -
@barbarian @mariner4life Watching this Boise State v UCF college football game on ESPN right now? Great game with thousands enjoying the contest.
Florida, where this game is being played - 20,000+ new Covid cases and 1300+ deaths yesterday. 53% fully vaccinated, 64% first dose. Their community has been open for some time now.
The modelling and and assumptions in the Doherty Institute report are fine, and people do need something to look forward too.
But ultimately it’s going to come down to what is “acceptable risk” judged by the “community”. For a risk averse country like Australia (and I put NZ in the same boat), that means lockdowns. For a gotcha media that is waiting for anyone to fail, that means high levels of restrictions, idiotic debates about zero Covid. It means inflexibility in policy response. It means blame games. It means division.
I’m all for public debate, critical analysis, and even calling out blatant misinformation, but here Melbourne and in Sydney, people need a more reasonable response where kids can get back to school, people can have opportunities to interact and engage in activities that help them balance life’s demands. People need that hope because after weeks and months of lockdowns, the discontent and hopelessness is rising.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Ultimately we are going to have to accept a level of death in the community. We've put that discussion off for as long as we could, but now we need to face up to it.
Yep, and I think they should be talking numbers that die from other infections as well, so people begin to understand that nothing will stop people dying but the best way to return to a normal post covid life is to learn to live with it.
Last night our news focused on Britain's highest daily death toll in months despite high vaccination levels, but what information isn't being given is how many of the 38,000 new infections that day as well as the 100 deaths, how many of them are unvaccinated, but equally as importantly, how.many are in hospital due to covid.
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@act-crusader Yeah, no minimising here, we've been through it you know? Including the months of lockdowns, no physical schooling, political bullshit and over promising, chaos on exam assessments and university admissions, plus accepting thousands of deaths as a sad reality even after vaccination. Just coming out the other side. People are still masking in shops etc but that's very gradually coming down. Most people thankfully see it as a social responsibility rather than an individual freedom. International travel is back. We just want to get on with life again.
I get it, the Doherty Institute report is hopeful. That's really what I'm hearing, so okay but ... I'm waiting for the next revision though, trying to understand the actual plan.
I hope we can get to 80% vaccinated across all of Australia. And NZ. It would be one hell of an achievement.
I certainly wish Australia all the best as my Dad is in WA now. Double vaccinated but 80+, has been in hospital on oxygen with respiratory issues in the last few years, definitely vulnerable. If he gets CoVid his chances are... really (really) not good I suspect.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Ultimately we are going to have to accept a level of death in the community. We've put that discussion off for as long as we could, but now we need to face up to it.
Yep, and I think they should be talking numbers that die from other infections as well, so people begin to understand that nothing will stop people dying but the best way to return to a normal post covid life is to learn to live with it.
Last night our news focused on Britain's highest daily death toll in months despite high vaccination levels, but what information isn't being given is how many of the 38,000 new infections that day as well as the 100 deaths, how many of them are unvaccinated, but equally as importantly, how.many are in hospital due to covid.
Guardian has daily UK hospitalisation and ICU numbers. It's hardly secret, in fact quite the opposite. It's freely available here.
Part of the reason not (over) stressing deaths vaccinated vs unvaccinated is that when you have a high vaccination rate, many of your deaths are elderly and vulnerable who have been fully vaccinated, but are "breakout" infections due to all the vaccines not being 100% effective... which is just normal.
Think about it. If you have 100% population vaccinated, 100% of your CoVid deaths are vaccinated, right? Does this mean vaccines don't work, no... they are not perfect, but they do hugely reduce hospitalisation and mortality as a percentage of cases. They also lower cases and hence overall risk of infection too.
There have been lots of articles over here laying this out so people get it and don't freak out, else the stats can be misleadingly used to feed an anti-vax narrative
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@landp but this is nz with low vaccination rates and a fear of covid....
My point was our media took a very small snapshot, and plenty still look to our media expecting balanced reporting.
I have family in the UK too.
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@taniwharugby I misspoke, no ICU data on the Guardian!!
It is published and very available though either UK Government or Public Health England dashboards. I really need to find it again. Last I heard CoVid was occupying 20% of ICU capacity but maybe that's higher now. Nowhere near previous waves.
The high number of deaths was noted here, but no dramas since there was a public holiday MMonda, some reporting gets deferred. Was that mentioned in NZ?
I have no idea what UK narrative the NZ press is trying to feed. With CoVid you can always find negative news or a negative angle if you really want it???? Just look around the world... if not UK check US, Israel etc. You'll find a negative angle somewhere because CoVid is a nightmare to manage period.
The honest narrative needed may be that vaccines are bloody good, but not perfect? And the explain why...
There are clear statistics on how much they reduce infection, hospitalisation and mortality per vaccine. The statistics on hospitalisation and mortality post vaccination are (still) HUGELY age dependent. Most people understand this over here. Plus yes... vaccines appear to wane, Pfizer rather more than AZ. There are initial numbers on that from Israel and UK. Boosters may be needed etc.
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@landp again, it is just how our media portrayed it...UK with huge vaccination numbers had highest deaths in months.
Yeah they mentioned it was a Bank Holiday weekend.
Not sure of any agenda, just poor reporting, I mean they are very much in Labours pocket, so you'd think with Cindy pushing vaccinations they'd message it appropriately, or at least provide context.
Then 10 mins later they show packed football stadiums in the UK....
I do try to not watch the news any more, but tougher to do when you are in Lockdown, and Mrs TR watches it.