Coronavirus - Australia
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@rotated said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Which countries would you compare Australia too though?
In terms of what?
A potential maximum vaccination rate.
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Change in vaccine willingness in Australia: August 2020 to January 2021
Executive summary
The paper provides data on the vaccine willingness in Australia as of January 2021 and how this changed since August 2020 both at the national level and for particular individuals.
- There has been a substantial increase in vaccine resistance and hesitancy and a large decline in vaccine likeliness between August 2020 and January 2021
Combined, 21.7 per cent of Australians said they probably or definitely would not get a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021, a significant and substantial increase from the 12.7 per cent of Australians who gave the same responses in August 2020.
- At the individual level, 31.9 per cent of Australians became less willing to get the vaccine between August 2020 and January 2021 in that they moved from a more to a less willing category.
There were still some Australians who became more willing over the period to get vaccinated (9.9 per cent).
The largest single flow across willingness categories was the 18.7 per cent of Australians who went from being definitely willing to get a COVID-19 vaccination to only probably willing to get one. There was a large decline in vaccine certainty, alongside increases in vaccine resistance.
We found three attitudinal factors that were particularly important in explaining the decline in willingness. Those Australians who think too much is being made of COVID-19, those who have low confidence in hospitals and the health care system, and those who are not optimistic about the next 12 months had all decreased in terms of their willingness to get vaccinated once a vaccine is available.
- In addition to campaigns targeting vaccination directly, those programs that improve confidence, remind people of the dangers of COVID-19, but importantly highlight the potential for a much better 2022 all have the potential to improve vaccination rates.
Which indicates we won't be hitting the numbers Ireland or Israel have manged for example.
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Question about vaccination rates, for those who've been paying more attention than me:
When we talk about 70% or 80%, is that of the entire population, or adults, or something else?
I saw a suggestion the other day that Morrison was attempting to move the goalposts, and say it was just adults when the original plan had been everyone. But I don't know whether that's true.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
VIC and Federal election in 2022 - will be pretty interesting
It would take some super hare-brained policies from Labor to make me direct my preferences to the current mob. I simply can't reward this level of incompetence.
I'm guessing that Labor's election strategy will be to avoid having any policies at all.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Change in vaccine willingness in Australia: August 2020 to January 2021
Executive summary
The paper provides data on the vaccine willingness in Australia as of January 2021 and how this changed since August 2020 both at the national level and for particular individuals.
- There has been a substantial increase in vaccine resistance and hesitancy and a large decline in vaccine likeliness between August 2020 and January 2021
Combined, 21.7 per cent of Australians said they probably or definitely would not get a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021, a significant and substantial increase from the 12.7 per cent of Australians who gave the same responses in August 2020.
- At the individual level, 31.9 per cent of Australians became less willing to get the vaccine between August 2020 and January 2021 in that they moved from a more to a less willing category.
There were still some Australians who became more willing over the period to get vaccinated (9.9 per cent).
The largest single flow across willingness categories was the 18.7 per cent of Australians who went from being definitely willing to get a COVID-19 vaccination to only probably willing to get one. There was a large decline in vaccine certainty, alongside increases in vaccine resistance.
We found three attitudinal factors that were particularly important in explaining the decline in willingness. Those Australians who think too much is being made of COVID-19, those who have low confidence in hospitals and the health care system, and those who are not optimistic about the next 12 months had all decreased in terms of their willingness to get vaccinated once a vaccine is available.
- In addition to campaigns targeting vaccination directly, those programs that improve confidence, remind people of the dangers of COVID-19, but importantly highlight the potential for a much better 2022 all have the potential to improve vaccination rates.
Which indicates we won't be hitting the numbers Ireland or Israel have manged for example.
the situation has changed MASSIVELY since Jan-21 though - that's when the SNB was locked down over a few cases per day and the rest of the country was free. There was no discussion about the unvaxxed not being allowed in bars or restaurants or at sports events. And there is lots more PZ around.
I don't think the Jan-21 figures are very illustrative of the country today (naturally I have no evidence to back this up)
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@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
VIC and Federal election in 2022 - will be pretty interesting
It would take some super hare-brained policies from Labor to make me direct my preferences to the current mob. I simply can't reward this level of incompetence.
I'm guessing that Labor's election strategy will be to avoid having any policies at all.
Bradbury the shit out of it.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Which indicates we won't be hitting the numbers Ireland or Israel have manged for example.
I would argue a ton has changed since January. An active outbreak which will continue through the entire vaccination period in NSW and Vic being the major one.
It's hard to look at some of the states with high uptake in the US or most large provinces in Canada or Ireland/Iceland/Israel and ask why Australia wouldn't achieve similar rates (or better) given the benefits of a mostly centralized population and strong vaccine and public health system.
But for states which don't have outbreaks and lockdowns like WA and Tasmania it is likely that research might be close to the mark.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Change in vaccine willingness in Australia: August 2020 to January 2021
Executive summary
The paper provides data on the vaccine willingness in Australia as of January 2021 and how this changed since August 2020 both at the national level and for particular individuals.
- There has been a substantial increase in vaccine resistance and hesitancy and a large decline in vaccine likeliness between August 2020 and January 2021
Combined, 21.7 per cent of Australians said they probably or definitely would not get a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021, a significant and substantial increase from the 12.7 per cent of Australians who gave the same responses in August 2020.
- At the individual level, 31.9 per cent of Australians became less willing to get the vaccine between August 2020 and January 2021 in that they moved from a more to a less willing category.
There were still some Australians who became more willing over the period to get vaccinated (9.9 per cent).
The largest single flow across willingness categories was the 18.7 per cent of Australians who went from being definitely willing to get a COVID-19 vaccination to only probably willing to get one. There was a large decline in vaccine certainty, alongside increases in vaccine resistance.
We found three attitudinal factors that were particularly important in explaining the decline in willingness. Those Australians who think too much is being made of COVID-19, those who have low confidence in hospitals and the health care system, and those who are not optimistic about the next 12 months had all decreased in terms of their willingness to get vaccinated once a vaccine is available.
- In addition to campaigns targeting vaccination directly, those programs that improve confidence, remind people of the dangers of COVID-19, but importantly highlight the potential for a much better 2022 all have the potential to improve vaccination rates.
Which indicates we won't be hitting the numbers Ireland or Israel have manged for example.
the situation has changed MASSIVELY since Jan-21 though - that's when the SNB was locked down over a few cases per day and the rest of the country was free. There was no discussion about the unvaxxed not being allowed in bars or restaurants or at sports events. And there is lots more PZ around.
I don't think the Jan-21 figures are very illustrative of the country today (naturally I have no evidence to back this up)
I agree, given the massive numbers now of Covid in the community and that it is becoming more apparant some sort of covid vax passport will be waved in front of people like a carrot on a stick (including lotto prizes), I suspect the numbers of anti vax will have dropped. No evidence either to support that however a lot has happened within Australia since that date.
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@rotated said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Which indicates we won't be hitting the numbers Ireland or Israel have manged for example.
I would argue a ton has changed since January. An active outbreak which will continue through the entire vaccination period in NSW and Vic being the major one.
It's hard to look at some of the states with high uptake in the US or most large provinces in Canada or Ireland/Iceland/Israel and ask why Australia wouldn't achieve similar rates (or better) given the benefits of a mostly centralized population and strong vaccine and public health system.
But for states which don't have outbreaks and lockdowns like WA and Tasmania it is likely that research might be close to the mark.
Back in January of you asked someone about vaccines they would probably have been thinking about AZ. These days, it would likely be taken as a much broader question about vaccines as a whole, or possibly "either AZ or Pfizer". So hopefully we'll see a swing back the other way in more recent numbers.
Once again, the bungled vaccine roll-out is in no small measure to blame for this. AZ is a good vaccine, it's allowed the UK to get to where it is. With proper procurement and marketing these hesitancy issues would have been greatly reduced.
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more evidence on the little echo chambers you can find yourself in, I honestly don't know anyone in the real world that isn't keen to get the jab, and it has been discussed A LOT
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Quick question, does anyone know how a vaccinated person compares to someone who survived covid in terms of their immune response to the virus if they come into contact with it again?
I just wonder if the anti-vaxers will eventually develop a natural immunity once they have all caught it and either survived or died.
Meaning once we reach 80% we can let the virus spread and we will all likely catch it but unvaccinated will have a greater risk of dying but long term the survivors will develop a resistance similar to the vaccinated?
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Quick question, does anyone know how a vaccinated person compares to someone who survived covid in terms of their immune response to the virus if they come into contact with it again?
@tim is probably your man here, but prevoiusly the vaccine seemed to have a much broader protection spectrum than pre-infections. This was an argument against herd immunity - but honestly, the amount of reliable data on this virus is surprisingly low.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Quick question, does anyone know how a vaccinated person compares to someone who survived covid in terms of their immune response to the virus if they come into contact with it again?
I just wonder if the anti-vaxers will eventually develop a natural immunity once they have all caught it and either survived or died.
Meaning once we reach 80% we can let the virus spread and we will all likely catch it but unvaccinated will have a greater risk of dying but long term the survivors will develop a resistance similar to the vaccinated?
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Thanks for that, a very interesting read and makes sense, basically we will all develop an immunity to it once it has gone through the population whether we are vaccinated or not. The question for government is if they have the capacity to treat the anti-vaxers and those who need hospitilation when we let it loose.
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@voodoo there must be massive amounts of data out there now (circa 212,000,000 infections recorded and c 190,000,000 recovered) in regard to those who have had the virus and vaccine by now to see if it helps in terms of contracting again, spreading etc...that article seems to more explains how natural immunity works than if there is some and additional protection to Covid??
Problem with letting it loose it the Delta does seem to be worse, in particular it will infect kids, whereas the original strain didnt, do they want to let it run rampant and possibly have kids dying?
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@rotated said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Which indicates we won't be hitting the numbers Ireland or Israel have manged for example.
I would argue a ton has changed since January. An active outbreak which will continue through the entire vaccination period in NSW and Vic being the major one.
It's hard to look at some of the states with high uptake in the US or most large provinces in Canada or Ireland/Iceland/Israel and ask why Australia wouldn't achieve similar rates (or better) given the benefits of a mostly centralized population and strong vaccine and public health system.
But for states which don't have outbreaks and lockdowns like WA and Tasmania it is likely that research might be close to the mark.
The only way forward is to point out two statistics and give a date upon which you're going to open up.
The statistics coming out of NSW are:
- The fully vaccinated accounts for 2.1% of the hospitalisations
- No one fully vaccinated is in ICU
The reason to go for a date and not a target percentage is to give people a deadline to sort their shit out. Otherwise everyone is waiting on the basement dwellers, introverts and agoraphobes who won't be in a rush cause everything's fine and dandy while they can work from home, order in and watch Netflix.
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Vaccination (full) percentage by age group Australia wide
Don't be put off by the date of the article, the data is constantly updated
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@rotated said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Which indicates we won't be hitting the numbers Ireland or Israel have manged for example.
I would argue a ton has changed since January. An active outbreak which will continue through the entire vaccination period in NSW and Vic being the major one.
It's hard to look at some of the states with high uptake in the US or most large provinces in Canada or Ireland/Iceland/Israel and ask why Australia wouldn't achieve similar rates (or better) given the benefits of a mostly centralized population and strong vaccine and public health system.
But for states which don't have outbreaks and lockdowns like WA and Tasmania it is likely that research might be close to the mark.
The only way forward is to point out two statistics and give a date upon which you're going to open up.
The statistics coming out of NSW are:
- The fully vaccinated accounts for 2.1% of the hospitalisations
- No one fully vaccinated is in ICU
The reason to go for a date and not a target percentage is to give people a deadline to sort their shit out. Otherwise everyone is waiting on the basement dwellers, introverts and agoraphobes who won't be in a rush cause everything's fine and dandy while they can work from home, order in and watch Netflix.
Agree with the statistics. Moving the focus more towards hospitalisation and death rates makes sense (although infection rates are of course a leading indicator for those, so still relevant).
Not sure about the date argument though. It's not as simple as "If you're too dumb to have got the vaccine by now then it's on you". If we open up before we're ready then there are tonnes of people who don't fall into that category who get impacted - kids, immunocompromised, pregnant, doctors, nurses & other health workers. Plus people who for whatever reason have fallen to prey to the misinformation.
I guess maybe at some point there may be a need to set a date. But we're still a fair way from that point. Need a bunch more work to sort out availability, hesitancy and misinformation first.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Which begs the question, how is covid19 going in Afghanistan?
I don't know but adulterers are stoned and alcohol is banned so maybe still a teensy-weeny bit stricter, still, than Australia
https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/fr/node/184166