Reshuffling the All Blacks backline
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<p>Well alot of Canterbury fans were bemused at him going to the Highlanders when he seemed to have a watershed seaosn with Canterbury last season and only 2 appearances in for the Hihglanders and it looks justified. Crusaders could have matched the money and I am sure he would have preferred the Crusaders but as you say they saw others as higher priority which is the definition of a 'selection mistake'. I did acknowledge that they had probably signed a multi season contract with Fonotia but who was responsible for that?</p>
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<p>8 out of 7 titles yes but in 2013 their backline was not their standout feature and in 2014 their backline looked poor when they didn't even come close to winning the title. 2015 they actually looked the best backline in the competition with a pretty green 10 who without being harsh is only of middling ability compared to their previous ones..</p> -
<p>Blackadder would have loved to have kept Laulala, Thompson, Luke Whitelock (who also had a watershed year in 2015) and Bird. The reality is that you can't keep good players when they are being offered better money elsewhere and have more opportunities to start games..</p>
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<p>Anyway, back on topic, why is Fekitoa suddenly on the nose with posters? I think he's done everything that has been asked of him at AB level and is the form centre in NZ at Super Rugby level. Why would he suddenly be pushed aside? I think he's locked in at 13 and then its up to Crotty and Ngatai to fight for the no.12 jersey.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="tubbyj" data-cid="567764" data-time="1459123701">
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<p>IMO Ryan Crotty is the nailed on 1st shot at centre. Not sure why others don't see this. I think you can sketch these names in now with a fair bit of certainty</p>
<br><p>2nd 5 is up for grabs with Ngatai probably having the inside running at the moment over Moala. But alot can happen over the remainder of the tournament Ranger maybe a longshot and Rob Thompson as a longshot bolter. What counts against Ngatai is both him and Crotty are not percieved as impact runners in the way Nonu was.</p>
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<p>I think the reason that others don't also see Crotty as the nailed on centre is that it is far from true. Fekitoa put in some good performances last year to help us beat SA, whereas Crotty looked average against Samoa. The selectors then brought Fekitoa, not Crotty to the world cup. They already had SBW to use as a bench option, so it is unlikely that it was due to Fekitoa being a better supersub. Fekitoa also actually plays centre, whereas Crotty is usually playing at 12.</p>
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<p>Also, Ranger isn't really an option at 2nd 5. I don't think he has ever played there at SupeRugby or test level? Moala is an option, but Ngatai has actually been much more dynamic than him, while also tackling better, having better distribution and a better kicking game. On a similar number of carries, Ngatai has offloaded just as much as Moala, beaten three times as many tacklers and almost run twice as many metres. If anyone is nailed on, barring a drop in form of cataclysmic proportions, I would think it is Ngatai.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="tubbyj" data-cid="567764" data-time="1459123701">
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<p>IMO Ryan Crotty is the nailed on 1st shot at centre. Not sure why others don't see this. I think you can sketch these names in now with a fair bit of certainty</p>
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<p>We talking about the same Crotty who missed out on the RWC squad while Fekitoa made it? How has he suddenly leap frogged over Fekitoa in his one game this season? Crazy talk.</p>
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<p>Not to completely disregard Crotty, I've got him on my bench because I think he'll be a reliable backup for either 2nd 5 or centre but Ngatai and Fekitoa are head and shoulders above everyone else at the moment IMO.</p> -
<p>I think Crotty lost out in the WC because they already had spades of what he offered. Ie leadership, organisation. If Conrad Smith went down injured I am sure he would have been first man on the plane and leapfrogged Fekitoa into the team.</p>
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<p>Again I like Fekitoa and don't want to run him down as a footballer but I just don't see them going from Conrad Smith whose strength lay completely in those areas to Fekitoa who last year missed alot of tackles in the Black shirt and ran out of the line alot which he continues to do for the Highlanders even if he has been more sucessful so far (which I am sure was not all the AB selectors were asking of him). Defense is way to important to the way the All Blacks play and centre is the lynchpin position in the backline.</p>
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<p>Fekiota made the WC squad ahead of Crotty as he is a very dynamic runner and covers 3 positions from 12 to wing. No way were they starting a WC knockout match with Crotty on the wing.</p>
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<p>If Fekitoa starts this season I think it will probably be on the wing (if we are exposed there by injuries as we are at the moment) or at 12 inside of Crotty which is also a strong possibilty that should be added to my contenders in the above post..</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Crucial" data-cid="567785" data-time="1459126721"><p>
I get the argument for Crotty as the level head in the centres but I think Ngatai can also fill that role and has far more future in him as a long term AB</p></blockquote>
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No brainer really.<br><br>
He has the same if not more leadership experience than Crotty. Better player, too.<br><br>
I think guys like McKenzie will get an opportunity in the third test after the Welsh have had their spirits well and truly broken. -
So if we are to believe they will change as little as possible due to changes already being forced onto them, then I guess we have:<br><br>
15. B Smith<br>
14.<br>
13.<br>
12.<br>
11. Savea<br>
10. Cruden<br>
9. A Smith.<br><br>
Cruden is the obvious choice at 10 due to his experience and extended run of world class performances in Black pre-injury.<br><br>
They won't drop Savea on the back of Super form, that's not how these coaches have operated. His defense is still fine which is hugely important at test level.<br><br>
B Smith is the number 1 fullback and we will need plenty of experience from the back.<br><br>
14 was NMS or Naholo pre injury, so if neither of them are fit then we will have to try someone else. Moala probably has the inside running.<br><br>
Then it's down to Ngatai, Crotty and Fekitoa to fill 12/13. I'm not overly fussed who they choose but if we want experience then Fekitoa/Crotty get the nod, though Ngatai's form is very hard to deny at the moment.<br><br>
D Mac would be good from the bench but I can't see him getting past Barrett. TKB should be the reserve half back and one of Crotty/Fekitoa/Ngatai to cover the centres.<br><br>
I'm pretty happy with those players given who we are missing from the RWC. -
<p>My question with Ngatai is if he's as good as his fans have been saying is, why hasn't he had more opportunities? I understand that we've had a locked in midfield for years, but there have been some opportunities for new players to be brought into the midfield and consistently other players have been chosen over Ngatai. What is it about Ngatai that the selectors have struggled to embrace? It's not as if he's just burst onto the scene, he debuted six or seven years ago for the Canes.</p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="tubbyj" data-cid="567783" data-time="1459126304">
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<p>I think Crotty lost out in the WC because they already had spades of what he offered. Ie leadership, organisation. If Conrad Smith went down injured I am sure he would have been first man on the plane and leapfrogged Fekitoa into the team.</p>
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<p>Again I like Fekitoa and don't want to run him down as a footballer but I just don't see them going from Conrad Smith whose strength lay completely in those areas to Fekitoa who last year missed alot of tackles in the Black shirt and ran out of the line alot which he continues to do for the Highlanders even if he has been more sucessful so far (which I am sure was not all the AB selectors were asking of him). Defense is way to important to the way the All Blacks play and centre is the lynchpin position in the backline.</p>
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<p>Fekiota made the WC squad ahead of Crotty as he is a very dynamic runner and covers 3 positions from 12 to wing. No way were they starting a WC knockout match with Crotty on the wing.</p>
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<p>If Fekitoa starts this season I think it will probably be on the wing (if we are exposed there by injuries as we are at the moment) or at 12 inside of Crotty which is also a strong possibilty that should be added to my contenders in the above post..</p>
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<p>Fekitoa has not started any games at wing for the All Blacks. Ever. I doubt they'd be playing him on the wing in a knockout match, either. Except as a last resort where they couldn't bring someone in fast enough. If NMS and Naholo were out, I think they would have gone for Barrett at 15 and Smith and 14. So it would have required 3 injuries before that would have been an option, by which point they could have brought in Piutau.</p>
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<p>Fekitoa definitely does push up on defense, but he tends to time it quite well. Additionally, the other Highlanders tend to push up with him. So it could very well be a part of the Highlanders tactics. In which case, if the All Blacks have a different pattern, I'm sure he could adapt to it.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="tubbyj" data-cid="567783" data-time="1459126304"><p>Fekiota made the WC squad ahead of Crotty</p></blockquote><br>That's the factual component of your post. With Wayne Smith in the coaching set up, Fekitoa's perceived frailties would be ironed out.<br><br>No doubt during the selection meetings they canvassed the "what-if" scenario of Conrad going down and were more than happy with Malakai's ability to step in, particularly when they've opted for him to replace an unavailable Conrad in 2014. What makes you think something has changed?
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Cantab79" data-cid="567791" data-time="1459127657">
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<p>My question with Ngatai is if he's as good as his fans have been saying is, why hasn't he had more opportunities? I understand that we've had a locked in midfield for years, but there have been some opportunities for new players to be brought into the midfield and consistently other players have been chosen over Ngatai. What is it about Ngatai that the selectors have struggled to embrace? It's not as if he's just burst onto the scene, he debuted six or seven years ago for the Canes.</p>
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<p>He has always had all the skills, but has had a lot of problems getting consistent game time together due to injuries.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="tubbyj" data-cid="567783" data-time="1459126304">
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<p>I think Crotty lost out in the WC because they already had spades of what he offered. Ie leadership, organisation. If Conrad Smith went down injured I am sure he would have been first man on the plane and leapfrogged Fekitoa into the team.</p>
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<p>Again I like Fekitoa and don't want to run him down as a footballer but I just don't see them going from Conrad Smith whose strength lay completely in those areas to Fekitoa who last year missed alot of tackles in the Black shirt and ran out of the line alot which he continues to do for the Highlanders even if he has been more sucessful so far (which I am sure was not all the AB selectors were asking of him). Defense is way to important to the way the All Blacks play and centre is the lynchpin position in the backline.</p>
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<p>Fekiota made the WC squad ahead of Crotty as he is a very dynamic runner and covers 3 positions from 12 to wing. No way were they starting a WC knockout match with Crotty on the wing.</p>
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<p>If Fekitoa starts this season I think it will probably be on the wing (if we are exposed there by injuries as we are at the moment) or at 12 inside of Crotty which is also a strong possibilty that should be added to my contenders in the above post..</p>
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<p>Crotty was obviously first in line if any midfielders went down during the RWC but you're dreaming if you think he would've leapfrogged anyone into the team. If Conrad went down, we would've seen a SBW/Nonu midfield (just like the second half of the final), with Fekitoa on the bench.</p>
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<p>If we want a Conrad-like in the backline then Ngatai would already fill that spot at 12, letting Fekitoa slot into his best position outside him. On top of that, Ngatai's just a better player than Crotty. A noticeably better runner, kicker and offloader at the very least.</p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Cantab79" data-cid="567791" data-time="1459127657">
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<p>My question with Ngatai is if he's as good as his fans have been saying is, why hasn't he had more opportunities? I understand that we've had a locked in midfield for years, but there have been some opportunities for new players to be brought into the midfield and consistently other players have been chosen over Ngatai. What is it about Ngatai that the selectors have struggled to embrace? It's not as if he's just burst onto the scene, he debuted six or seven years ago for the Canes.</p>
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<p>He's struggled with injuries a lot but it's also worth remembering that two of those six years were in Hammett's Hurricanes as well. He still did enough in his first couple of years at the Chiefs to guarantee a starting spot if he was fit, he just wasn't fit very often. Last year was the first time he really went through most of the season injury free and he's built on that this year.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Cantab79" data-cid="567795" data-time="1459127867"><p>
Can I also just say that I think George Moala is the ideal no.23 to partner Barrett on the bench because he covers all the positions that BB doesn't (ie. 12, 13 and wing).</p></blockquote>
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I don't think the worlds best side, if it wants to remain so, can afford 70 to 75% goal kickers. Which is what AC & BB are. Maybe Cruden can be coached to a better percentage. 80% is the minimum.<br><br>
I hope Cruden & Sopoaga get at least a test each vs Wales. -
<p>Fekitoa is in the category of "too much natural talent not to pick." I have been critical of his distribution skills on here in the past. If Crotty was in good form last year, I would have picked him if Conrad went down. I just think Fekitoa has the potential to be a great and Crotty doesn't have that. I just don't think the selectors can turn down su h great talent. If a player isn't 00% perfect or well rounded, that's what you have coaches for.</p>
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<p>I think the 12 position is most exciting. Ngatai deserves first shot as things stand but Thompson, Crotty, Laumape and Moala are all doing good things.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Crucial" data-cid="567785" data-time="1459126721">
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<p>I get the argument for Crotty as the level head in the centres but I think Ngatai can also fill that role and has far more future in him as a long term AB</p>
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<p>Sumo had an article last year about how Polynesian players are called explosive and pakehas are called solid even when that isn't even the case. Ngatai seems a perfect example of this. Not only does Ngatai fill the Conrad role but he also has a far better kicking game as well. If you want one 'solid' guy in midfield then Ngatai fills that role superbly (while also being a fantastic attacking player in his own right).</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Billy Tell" data-cid="567866" data-time="1459143585">
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<p>I don't think the worlds best side, if it wants to remain so, can afford 70 to 75% goal kickers. Which is what AC & BB are. Maybe Cruden can be coached to a better percentage. 80% is the minimum.<br><br>
I hope Cruden & Sopoaga get at least a test each vs Wales.</p>
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<p>Who of our kickers are over 80%?</p>