Black Caps v Pakistan
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@Bovidae said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
A useful article summarising what needs to happen for NZ to play in the World Test Championship final at Lords.
If my maths is right:
AUSTRALIA
Current points percentage: 76.7 (322 out of 420)What’s left (max
180150 points):-India
21 home tests(30pts per win, 10pts per draw)-South Africa 3 away tests (40pts per win, 13pts per draw)
Also: 2-test series in Bangladesh cancelled (120pts not contested)
What they need to top 70 per cent:
10090 more points (win 3 out of54 against India and South Africa; or drawbothlast against India and win 2 against South Africa)INDIA
Current points percentage: 72 (390 out of 540)What’s left (max
180150 points):-Australia
21 away tests(30pts per win, 10pts per draw)-England 4 home tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)
What they need to top 70 per cent:
120110 more points (win 4 out of65 against Australia and England; or win 3 and draw32)ENGLAND
Current points percentage: 60.8 (292 out of 480)
What’s left (max 240 points):
-Sri Lanka 2 away tests (60pts per win, 20pts per draw)
-India 4 away tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)
What they need to top 70 per cent:
220 more points (win both against Sri Lanka; and win 3 and draw 1 against India)
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Aotearoa vs Pakistan: Timmy — The Niche Cache
All of which has led the Blackcaps and us kiwi cricket fans to this moment where everything is tremendous with one common factor throughout he growth of the Blackcaps being Tim Southee.
Really good read about Timmy, a well researched and accurate article.
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@LABCAT said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
@booboo yeah that's looks correct, probably unlikely we will be in the final based on that and England probably needs a near miracle as well but at least their destiny is in their hands.
Yeah. I'm thinking India win 3, draw 2
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@booboo Australian commentators were saying the Sydney test was going to be the first draw in Oz for ages.
Barring rain, I'd expect an outright result in Brisbane and with all the Indian injuries, I'm thinking Australia is the favourite - though I might change my mind if Oz has to find two new opening batsmen.
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@booboo said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
@LABCAT said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
@booboo yeah that's looks correct, probably unlikely we will be in the final based on that and England probably needs a near miracle as well but at least their destiny is in their hands.
Yeah. I'm thinking India win 3, draw 2
I think we have to switch focus to hoping Australia miss the final, rather than India. That's looking more likely now to me. But both still favourites to meet again in the final.
Assume Brisbane is Aussie win, most likely.
Aus v India ends 1-2
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Australia needs a series win v SA by any margin (3 test series away)
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India needs a 4-0 win v Eng (4 test series home)
I don't really rate the current Englsh team with Rot under-performing. So think 4-0 is likely. But, England are playing a 2 test series v Sri Lanka before this, so that is good prep.
South Africa are bad at the moment by their standards, and weirdly even when good usually lost to Australia at home but won away ....
Dammit, all 3 possibilities are still on the table!
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@Bovidae said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
Here is the updated table.
Grrrrrr........fuck that series in Oz annoys me !!!!!!!!!
So correct me if I'm wrong but if England didn't drop a test to the Windies ( as they shouldn't have to be honest ) would they be ahead of the BCs ?
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No, if England had beaten West Indies they would have 332 points from 480 so a percentage of 69.16%.
I believe that the Australia/SA series hasn't yet been completely confirmed yet so may be still cancelled. If India beat Australia in Brisbane, Australia drop below 70% so I think that is our best chance at the moment.
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@LABCAT said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
No, if England had beaten West Indies they would have 332 points from 480 so a percentage of 69.16%.
I believe that the Australia/SA series hasn't yet been completely confirmed yet so may be still cancelled. If India beat Australia in Brisbane, Australia drop below 70% so I think that is our best chance at the moment.
I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed and that table makes absolutely no sense to me
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@MN5 said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
@LABCAT said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
No, if England had beaten West Indies they would have 332 points from 480 so a percentage of 69.16%.
I believe that the Australia/SA series hasn't yet been completely confirmed yet so may be still cancelled. If India beat Australia in Brisbane, Australia drop below 70% so I think that is our best chance at the moment.
I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed and that table makes absolutely no sense to me
The table on wikipedia might be easier.
The 'PC' column is the total points contested for each team - in NZ's case 600 - so NZ are on 420 points out of 600 possible points - which is why they are sitting at 70%.
The reason for this is points are given differently depending on the length of the series.
See below.
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@KiwiMurph said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
@MN5 said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
@LABCAT said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
No, if England had beaten West Indies they would have 332 points from 480 so a percentage of 69.16%.
I believe that the Australia/SA series hasn't yet been completely confirmed yet so may be still cancelled. If India beat Australia in Brisbane, Australia drop below 70% so I think that is our best chance at the moment.
I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed and that table makes absolutely no sense to me
The table on wikipedia might be easier.
The 'PC' column is the total points contested for each team - in NZ's case 600 - so NZ are on 420 points out of 600 possible points - which is why they are sitting at 70%.
The reason for this is points are given differently depending on the length of the series.
See below.
Ah yep, that looks better.
Is the .5 cos they played at a neutral venue ?
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@KiwiMurph said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
@MN5 I think maybe that is referring to a test series that was only half-complete?
So a 2 test series where it got cancelled after 1 test or something?
You could be right but I thought teams got more for winning away from home or did I imagine that ?
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@MN5 said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
@KiwiMurph said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
@MN5 I think maybe that is referring to a test series that was only half-complete?
So a 2 test series where it got cancelled after 1 test or something?
You could be right but I thought teams got more for winning away from home or did I imagine that ?
I can't find any reference to that. The second table above is how points are achieved.
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Not sure how right this guy is ...
And am assuming his % probabilities are assuming each of the 2,700 odd outcomes have equal chance of occurring, when of course one team is likely to be more favoured over another in any given game, mesding wuth his actual probabilities ...
Or he MAY be full of shit ...
