NPC - Premiership remaining matches
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@KiwiPie said in NPC - Premiership remaining matches:
The mighty Bay can finish 2nd and get a home semi-final or 7th and get relegated. If we're expecting Canterbury and Wellington to win then the Bay v Harbour game is going to be a titanic struggle with a semi-final for the winner and relegation for the loser.
the relegated team is gonna be shitty that 5 wins doesn't guarantee safety, but 6 gets you a semi...
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As discussed above, Auckland is guaranteed to finish 1st and along with Ta$man and Waikato, are the only teams that can't be relegated. The rest of the placings (#2-7) are up for grabs.
As Canterbury hosts Auckland in the final match of the round robin they will know what they need to do to make the SFs or avoid relegation.
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So if Auckland takes this weekend seriously they can save both:
- Their Blues franchise partner North Harbour from relegation, and
- The Mighty Bay of Plenty Steamers who saved Auckland from relegation in the final round of 2017 by beating Waikato 36 - 32 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Mitre_10_Cup)
And Auckland can relegate Canterbury in the process. This clearly calls for a full strength Auckland side
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@Donsteppa The other twist is that Canterbury could lose and still not get relegated. That does require Manawatu to beat Wellington, and Wellington to not get any bonus points. Very unlikely but a possibility amongst the many.
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@Bovidae said in NPC - Premiership remaining matches:
@Donsteppa The other twist is that Canterbury could lose and still not get relegated. That does require Manawatu to beat Wellington, and Wellington to not get any bonus points. Very unlikely but a possibility amongst the many.
Yep, it feels like too much to hope for, but I imagine Manawatu will have a point to prove against their Hurricanes big brother!
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@dogmeat I'm very annoyed with Harbour.
They were paying $26 to win a seven horse race after beating the favourite convincingly - and everyone else was looking pretty dogshit.
So I put on an insurance bet - and then I looked at the odds again and put on a bet for profit!
And then somehow they lost to Wellington - basically by playing like clowns!
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@Donsteppa You guys also let us get a crucial bonus point win that year when we played so yeah, Auckland do owe you guys one.
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@Chris-B The rest of the country is annoyed at your mob for throwing your last game to keep your mates in the division 😉.
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@African-Monkey That's very fair - I'm fucking annoyed with them, as well!
If this sort of shit continues, there's a vague possibility we will no longer be NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!!!
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@Chris-B said in NPC - Premiership remaining matches:
@African-Monkey That's very fair - I'm fucking annoyed with them, as well!
If this sort of shit continues, there's a vague possibility we will no longer be NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!!!
pretty much anything that happened pre-covid has been written off bro, let it go
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@KiwiPie said in NPC - Premiership remaining matches:
If the favourites all win, Harbour are relegated ....
So long as we don't do a 1991 and King Country... not that we're such relatively strong favourites this time around, but then this is the Bay
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Premiership: Auckland 34 points, Ta$man 29, Waikato 29, Bay of Plenty 26, North Harbour 25, Canterbury 24, Wellington 24. 1st, Auckland: Won 7, lost 2, points difference +102, points 34, play Canterbury (A), highest possible points total: 39 The only team guaranteed to occupy the same position, Auckland will finish top because they’re five points clear of Ta$man and Waikato and beat both earlier in the season. 2nd, Ta$man: Won 6, lost 3, points difference +80, points 29, play Otago (A), highest possible points total: 34 Head to head: (Beat Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Wellington; lost to Harbour, Auckland, Canterbury) Ta$man are ahead of Waikato because they beat the Mooloos in round three and a bonus-point victory against Otago in Dunedin would guarantee second and a home semifinal. Anything less and the Mako would be vulnerable to slipping out of the top two and a loss without any bonus points could also compromise their semifinal spot, although it’s unlikely because only a remarkable sequence of results would see Ta$man slide out of the top four. It's improbable but there is a scenario where Waikato, one of Bay of Plenty or Harbour, and Canterbury finish above Ta$man. However, a bonus point would ensure the Mako can’t be overtaken by Canterbury. The defending champions can’t finish bottom because either Bay of Plenty or Harbour will finish below them. 3rd, Waikato: Won 6, lost 3, points difference +38, points 29, play Northland (A), highest possible points total: 34 Head to head: (Beat Wellington, North Harbour, Canterbury; lost to Ta$man, Auckland, Bay of Plenty) Waikato will be eyeing second to earn a home semifinal and will achieve that if they finish with more competition points than Ta$man. The Mooloos face Northland in Whangarei with a top-four spot in the Premiership guaranteed for the first time since 2011 because they can’t finish lower than fourth. Neither Canterbury nor Wellington can overtake Waikato because they both lost to the semifinal-bound Mooloos. Only one of Bay of Plenty or Harbour can finish higher. Waikato can’t finish bottom because either Bay of Plenty or Harbour will finish below them and beating Northland would mean the Mooloos are guaranteed at least third. 4th, Bay of Plenty: Won 5, lost 4, points difference +6, points 26, play Harbour (H), highest possible points total: 31 Head to head: (Beat Canterbury, Waikato; lost to Wellington, Auckland, Ta$man) 5th, North Harbour: Won 5, lost 4, points difference +54, points 25, play Bay of Plenty (A), highest possible points total: 30 Head to head: (Beat Ta$man, Auckland; lost to Canterbury, Waikato, Wellington) Here's where it gets ludicrously complicated. Bay of Plenty host Harbour, and we’ve decided to summarise what the permutations are for both teams together. Let's keep it as simple as possible with there being so many potential outcomes and Canterbury and Wellington hovering below on 24 points each. Bay of Plenty winning would guarantee them a semifinal, Harbour need a bonus-point victory to be certain, and the loser will be vulnerable to finishing seventh. The highest position the Steamers or Harbour could finish is second, but they would need Ta$man and Waikato to slip up. If you start delving deeper into what’s possible for Bay of Plenty and Harbour, please don't. Neither side will focus too much on the maths and instead concentrate on one outcome: winning to remove all doubt. 6th, Canterbury: Won 4, lost 5, points difference +26, points 24, play Auckland (H), highest possible points total: 29 Head to head: (Beat Harbour, Wellington Ta$man; lost to Waikato, Bay of Plenty) 7th, Wellington: Won 4, lost 5, points difference +15, points 24, play Manawatū (H), highest possible points total: 29 Head to head: (Beat Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Harbour; lost to Waikato, Canterbury, Ta$man) Canterbury are above Wellington because of their golden point win against the Lions in round four and let’s assess them together because they start the final round on the same points (24). Like Bay of Plenty and Harbour, it’s really complicated when you try to consider all the potential outcomes. For example, both could lose, pick up losing bonus points, and finish above Harbour. Both could also win and still miss the cut for the semifinals. It’s that uncertain. Wellington host Manawatū knowing at least four competition points would keep them safe because beating the Turbos guarantees at least 28 on the ladder. If that happens, then either Bay of Plenty or Harbour would finish below the Lions, who are also helped by their wins over both of them. The highest Wellington could finish is fourth because they can’t overtake Ta$man or Waikato after losing to both. Losing to Manawatū without any bonus points would mean the Lions are guaranteed to finish last. As for Canterbury, they’re in the somewhat enviable position of playing when they’ll be certain of what’s required because it’s the final match of the round, although it’s tough because they host leaders Auckland. It’s also tough to forecast exactly what Canterbury will need for a semifinal place, and to potentially avoid finishing seventh, because the three matches on Saturday, as well as the pivotal contest between Bay of Plenty and Harbour, will all change the equation. Canterbury could finish as high as third, though that’s unlikely, and the top four would be out of reach if Ta$man, Waikato and Bay of Plenty have all reached 30 competition points because the most they can achieve is 29. Helping Canterbury’s cause could be their wins over Harbour and Wellington earlier in the season but one thing is certain: defeat Auckland with a bonus point and they can’t finish seventh.
