Rough tips and other bets...
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@voodoo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
favourite never wins!
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@mariner4life yeah, 23% record of favs getting up apparently. Still, imagine that's better than the record of the rank outsider!
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which roughie are you sticking $5 on in hope?
Rostropovich at $81 for me.
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Think I'll do the usual flexi-tri, aiming to get c. 20% of the pool with a large group of runners - the strategy that hasn't been successful for me in this race since 1998 when I got the Jezabeel/Champagne/Persian Punch tri!
I also like Mustajeer (and particularly DO on board), will have a go EW there
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@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@voodoo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
favourite never wins!
I’d be very surprised if any selection is within a couple dollars of No. 2 for favouritism at post-time. I have reservations whether she can stay, but have to go with it for safety in my multis, simply can’t leave out.
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Sadly, I have to overthink it, because to me it’s a fun puzzle that I’m almost certain to lose, and losing a hundred is no small potatoes, so I need to overthink my donation.
I try to handicap the field down to six horses, a process of elimination that occasionally involves a blindfold and a flag. Hey, it’s The Melbourne Cup, ffs!
I hated to drop a few that will likely come back to bite me in the ass (I’m looking at you Finche, you too Il Paradiso...)... My six multi-wager selections are:
#8 MUSTAJEER; #2 MER DE GRACE and with hand firmly over my heart #18 SURPRISE BABY (for wins); and
#1 CROSS COUNTER; #3 MASTER OF REALITY; and #13 RAYMOND TUSK to fill the minors.
I like Mustajeer. I reckon Mer De Grace won’t like the soft turf and distance may be a bridge too far, but I learned the hard way in the Caulfield and have to keep her safe. As for Surprise Baby, nothing would make me happier than to see a Kiwibred win, especially if I have dollars wagered. It’s a huge leap in class and might not be able to handle the pressure, but it’s a gamble I am compelled to take.
Ticket #1:
$1 EXACTA box
1-3,8,18/ 1-3,8,18
Total $30Ticket #2:
$2 TRIFECTA box
2,8,18/ 2,8,18
Total $12Ticket #3:
$2 TRIFECTA straight
8/ 1-3,13,18/ 1-3,13,18
Total $40Ticket #4:
$1 TRIFECTA straight
2,18/ 1-3,8,13,18/ 1-3,8,13,18
Total $40TOTAL WAGER: $122.
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first race i had a bet on and got the winner. Delayed flight home yesterday so put some on, had the winner in the last at 11s, it jumped at 3.90! fuck i love fixed odds.
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@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
first race i had a bet on and got the winner. Delayed flight home yesterday so put some on, had the winner in the last at 11s, it jumped at 3.90! fuck i love fixed odds.
That's a peach!!
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@Rapido said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Not much buzz in NZ.
we were just commenting on that at work today.
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35 mins out, market movers are Constantinople current fave at 5/1; Cross Counter and Master of Reality have halved their opening lines to 6/1; Mer de Glace still at 6/1. Finche dropped down to 7/1...
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Herald Sun selected #5 Southern France as their top selection. Opened at 33/1, currently down to 25/1. Maybe if it stays up there at post I might take a bite.
Surprise Baby has drifted from 13/1 out to 25/1...
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Caulfield runner-up Vow And Declare, the Aussie’s best hope, has drifted from 10/1 morning to 24/1 current. If it goes higher I might take a small bite...
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@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
which roughie are you sticking $5 on in hope?
Rostropovich at $81 for me.
Hooroo has Sound, opened at 80/1, currently at 99/1 (actual is $224 for $1 — biggest longshot right now)...
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Herald Sun’s top selections:
- Southern France
- Cross Counter
- Constantinople
- Il Paradiso
- Prince Of Arran
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Mustajeer
Prince of Arran
Il Paradiso -
Jayzuz, Sound is out past $265 for a $2 win bet.
Correction. That’s $265 for a $1 win bet.
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Well, I just flushed over a hundred dollars down the loo, but that was an incredible finish.
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The replay angle of that finish from the inside rail is breathtaking.
