Rough tips and other bets...
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@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
Do they call it "Soft" over there? (Where we would call it a "Dead6" then it would be a 'Slow7))
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
Do they call it "Soft" over there? (Where we would call it a "Dead6" then it would be a 'Slow7))
Yeah mate
Firm Good Soft Heavy
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@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
Do they call it "Soft" over there? (Where we would call it a "Dead6" then it would be a 'Slow7))
Yeah mate
Firm Good Soft Heavy
That's annoying. I wish we were the same. Fast, Good, Dead, Slow & Heavy
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got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
Soft 6 right now. Rail has gone out 3m to take care of most of the chop from Saturday. While they are not expecting any more rain, they don't think it will dry out too much.
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@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
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@voodoo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
favourite never wins!
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@mariner4life yeah, 23% record of favs getting up apparently. Still, imagine that's better than the record of the rank outsider!
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which roughie are you sticking $5 on in hope?
Rostropovich at $81 for me.
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Think I'll do the usual flexi-tri, aiming to get c. 20% of the pool with a large group of runners - the strategy that hasn't been successful for me in this race since 1998 when I got the Jezabeel/Champagne/Persian Punch tri!
I also like Mustajeer (and particularly DO on board), will have a go EW there
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@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@voodoo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
favourite never wins!
I’d be very surprised if any selection is within a couple dollars of No. 2 for favouritism at post-time. I have reservations whether she can stay, but have to go with it for safety in my multis, simply can’t leave out.
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Sadly, I have to overthink it, because to me it’s a fun puzzle that I’m almost certain to lose, and losing a hundred is no small potatoes, so I need to overthink my donation.
I try to handicap the field down to six horses, a process of elimination that occasionally involves a blindfold and a flag. Hey, it’s The Melbourne Cup, ffs!
I hated to drop a few that will likely come back to bite me in the ass (I’m looking at you Finche, you too Il Paradiso...)... My six multi-wager selections are:
#8 MUSTAJEER; #2 MER DE GRACE and with hand firmly over my heart #18 SURPRISE BABY (for wins); and
#1 CROSS COUNTER; #3 MASTER OF REALITY; and #13 RAYMOND TUSK to fill the minors.
I like Mustajeer. I reckon Mer De Grace won’t like the soft turf and distance may be a bridge too far, but I learned the hard way in the Caulfield and have to keep her safe. As for Surprise Baby, nothing would make me happier than to see a Kiwibred win, especially if I have dollars wagered. It’s a huge leap in class and might not be able to handle the pressure, but it’s a gamble I am compelled to take.
Ticket #1:
$1 EXACTA box
1-3,8,18/ 1-3,8,18
Total $30Ticket #2:
$2 TRIFECTA box
2,8,18/ 2,8,18
Total $12Ticket #3:
$2 TRIFECTA straight
8/ 1-3,13,18/ 1-3,13,18
Total $40Ticket #4:
$1 TRIFECTA straight
2,18/ 1-3,8,13,18/ 1-3,8,13,18
Total $40TOTAL WAGER: $122.
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first race i had a bet on and got the winner. Delayed flight home yesterday so put some on, had the winner in the last at 11s, it jumped at 3.90! fuck i love fixed odds.
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@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
first race i had a bet on and got the winner. Delayed flight home yesterday so put some on, had the winner in the last at 11s, it jumped at 3.90! fuck i love fixed odds.
That's a peach!!
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@Rapido said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Not much buzz in NZ.
we were just commenting on that at work today.
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35 mins out, market movers are Constantinople current fave at 5/1; Cross Counter and Master of Reality have halved their opening lines to 6/1; Mer de Glace still at 6/1. Finche dropped down to 7/1...
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Herald Sun selected #5 Southern France as their top selection. Opened at 33/1, currently down to 25/1. Maybe if it stays up there at post I might take a bite.
Surprise Baby has drifted from 13/1 out to 25/1...
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Caulfield runner-up Vow And Declare, the Aussie’s best hope, has drifted from 10/1 morning to 24/1 current. If it goes higher I might take a small bite...
