2018 Football World Cup
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@chester-draws said in 2018 Football World Cup:
@canefan yeah, but only to buy cheap players who, for whatever reason, are undervalued.
Sabremetrics will tell you who are the best players. The top will all be well paid superstars. Moneyball is about buying the guys on that list who aren't priced highly enough, not the top ones.
And about playing a game plan that emphasises winning over style.
So a rugby version might emphasise props, goal kickers and backs that can tackle. Then playing ten man rugby when needed. You'd pick Ritchie Mounga, because he's cheap and solid, not Beauden Barrett who'd top any Sabremetrics. You'd buy Buckman over Israel Dagg. You'd buy cheap Tongan props over the Franks.
More precisely it was identifying that traditional statistics were less reliable predictors of performance than most people realised. I think in baseball it was batting average that was traditionally regarded as the best marker for quality (and therefore price), but on base percentage that was the more reliable indicator of performance. So you'd find guys with relatively poor averages and great on base percentages.
I don't see how you can break football down in that same way. Sure there will be undervalued players (Leicester had a bunch of them) but they're not likely to be easily identified through statistical analysis as in baseball. So a 'moneyball' approach really just becomes a 'we're going to get a scouting guru' approach.
The playing style thing was the same. Turns our stealing bases is net-negative to your chances to win - so stop doing it. But how do you break down football like that? That might be more possible (e.g. chances created by fullbacks coming forward vs counter attacks creating chances following a fullback coming forward), but still has many more variables thanks to the more open, flowing nature of football. In fact I'd say football (and rugby) are probably the two hardest sports to apply moneyball principles to thanks to the nature of the game.
The other thing is the season length - there's what; 100 odd games per baseball season? If you playing a style that you know will be more successful in the long run then you can be confident that any blips (e.g. when your opponents have an improbable run of successful base stealing attempts) will smooth out over the season. Whereas in shorter seasons those two games you lost because a high risk strategy from the opponent got lucky might be the difference. Even the Oakland Athletics, although being wildly more successful than their budget should have allowed, never won a world series (post moneyball).
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@cyclops I agree with the point that football and rugby aren't easily broken statistically by player. But there are some -- penalties vs turnovers for flankers, lineout percent for bookers.
But I reckon that they can be broken by play and playing style. Some look flashy but don't work well, whereas lineout drives should be your first option every single attacking lineout (I've seen a quite ordinary team win a championship with just that).
I would for example pick the props that give away the least penalties, not the ones that look good or dead lift the most. I would value scrum push for locks far more than most (and hence rate Bird higher). There is room for such arbitrage.
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Clubs like Southampton have tried a type of moneyball approach by buying players fairly cheaply who shine in the EPL and then they can sell on for substantial profits - as well as having a top-notch academy system. In the Champions League final, Mane, Lovren, van Dijk, Lallana and Bale all passed through Southampton as well as Clyne who probably would have played instead of Alexander-Arnold were he not injured.
Signs that system only works while you're buying gems and as soon as you get some duds, it's move the manager along and get desperate like every other club.
I'd like to see Belgium or France win the World Cup to cap the old golden generation thing. Still no idea who will win given that one of Croatia, Russia, England, Sweden will be in the final and if you ranked the teams, they may be 5-8 of the 8 that are left.
Sweden are obdurate. They were in a group with France and the Netherlands to qualify and edged out the Dutch (2010 finalists). They had a playoff with Italy to qualify and edged out the 2006 winners. A tough group with Germany and Mexico and topped it, sending home the 2014 winners.
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@kiwipie While I agree that the top half of the draw contains the best four teams for reasons that I'm not sure I can explain, even to myself, I don't like any of them.
Maybe Uruguay because they punch above their weight . Brazil Fuck off Neymar plus the whole masters of the game vibe when for the last 50 years Germany have been the best performing team. France - well they're French for a start. Belgium yeah nah. Lived in the Netherlands Fuck Belgium winning it before they do plus the whole golden generation thing fucks me off as much as it did during Ericsons England tenure.
Agree Sweden will be tough for the Poms - ABBA - crime against humanity. Fuck off home.
Russia - c'mon. Well done - hosting a great tournament but reality is its a shit team.
Croatia - nice football - great storyline re small country constantly footing it with the big boys. Wouldn't be distressed if they won it, but the downer (for all the Balkan nations) is the fans. Yeah boisterous fun blah blah but scratch the surface rabid racist hilklbilly psychos.
Which leave ING-GA-LUND. Limited team haven't done much so far but do seem to be a team and let's face it England's pretty fucked (as a country) - surely they deserve some sort of feel good to last them the next 50 years?
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- Brazil. The fucks have a culture of winning WCs.
- ENGERRLLAAANND!!!!
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@bovidae said in 2018 Football World Cup:
Southampton, otherwise known as the Liverpool reserves...
Leicester City must be the best recent example of getting value for money in a squad.
Kante and Mahrez were bargain buys from France (in fact Kante was probably the greatest purchase of recent years), Vardy turned out to be a gem and the rest of them were very efficient/experienced. Perfect storm of all the usual contenders declining for that season.
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@dogmeat I don't think you need to scratch the surface of a Croatian football fan. Many start as violent thugs and get worse (organised crime in the Balkans operates through football clubs and their fan groups).
I don't know how racist they are. True they'd literally tear Serbs apart if they got the chance, but other than old hates its hard to tell.
Incidentally, the Serb-Croat hate runs very deep (ethnic cleansing post Yugoslavia, fascist vs communist in WWII, etc). Russia is the traditional supporter of the Serbs (post Yugo, Communist in WWII etc). The Croatia vs Russia game will not be pretty if there's an incident.
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@kiwipie said in 2018 Football World Cup:
@bovidae said in 2018 Football World Cup:
Southampton, otherwise known as the Liverpool reserves...
Leicester City must be the best recent example of getting value for money in a squad.
Kante and Mahrez were bargain buys from France (in fact Kante was probably the greatest purchase of recent years), Vardy turned out to be a gem and the rest of them were very efficient/experienced. Perfect storm of all the usual contenders declining for that season.
Jamie Vardy
Discarded by Sheffield Wednesday at 16
Languishng in non-league football until 2010
Premiership winner in 20015/16
to World Cup winner in 2018Now that would be a story
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France now up 2-0 and they are doing most of the attacking. They’re a good side to watch.
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Yep
France v Brazil (likely) / Belgium (unlikely) should be a cracker
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This game is great. Quality football.
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Almost just did
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On this performance £865 per week would be a stretch for Neymar
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Great skill for the Brazil goal fair play.
Funny how now Brazil have a sniff the theatrics have diminished.
Brazil 1 - 2 Belgium
78 mins gone
