Exodus 2017
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@Billy-Tell said in Exodus 2017:
Players off contract in 2017:
Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock, Owen Franks, Cory Jane, Israel Dagg, Aaron Cruden, Ben Smith, Charlie Faumuina, Sam Cane, Steven Luatua, Malakai Fekitoa, Hikawera Elliot, Nepo Laulala, Codie Taylor, James Broadhurst, Tawera Kerr Barlow, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Waisake Naholo, Brad Weber, Charlie Ngatai and Ryan Crotty
Current ABs in bold (Laulala, NMS & Ngatai would have been there but for injury IMHO, possibly Broadhurst).
All the talk is currently about Dagg, Smith & Cruden, but there are a lot of other names there that I haven't seen re-sign yet.
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@Billy-Tell Yes, to add a few others: TJP, Squire, Tamanivalu & Hames, as well as the likes of James Lowe, Matt Proctor, Ash Dixon, Tom Franklin & Parsons.
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@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
@Billy-Tell said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
@Billy-Tell Just a pity that we lose another reasonably good prop, although losing a TH would have been worse.
I tend to agree with Wayne Smith that slowly but surely the rugby base is moving north. He will earn much more as a squad prop for Clermont than as a squad prop for the canes.
In that light:
That's quite damning and a huge problem for France internationally unless they get a handle on it.
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@Catogrande said in Exodus 2017:
That's quite damning and a huge problem for France internationally unless they get a handle on it.
I'll say! France used to be the home of scrummaging yet somehow Jamie Mackintosh is the best they have playing?
Even his own team mates in Southland describe him as overrated. -
@Crucial Another point there is that they've used 8 different teams so it's not even a case of picking guys that have been part of an awesome team effort.
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@Catogrande said in Exodus 2017:
@Crucial Another point there is that they've used 8 different teams so it's not even a case of picking guys that have been part of an awesome team effort.
Is their an element of 'encouragement' awards in this? Like kids sports?
Is the media simply trying to keep as many readers as possible happy by seeing their own team mentioned? -
Dagg, Cruden, Smith.
You can keep one, who do you choose?
In 2019, the players will be aged
Dagg 31
Cruden 30
Smith 33Do NZ often field outside backs aged over 30?
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@Billy-Tell I think Cruden is at most risk, IMO Dagg will want another 'highlight' (Lions) to add to his career and given his resurgence, is a very good shot to start v the Lions, if he stays, Smith wil start v the Lions, whereas Cruden has BB to contend with, and Sopoaga who must be so close to getting more minutes.
Hansen said he is ok to lose one of the 3, and I suspect he has his preference over who he'd like to keep.
I guess the fact these guys spoke to whatever NH teams a few weeks back, and they have not yet signed, means there is hope that NZR will retain their services, especially with the new agreement signed.
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They are all already signed through past the lions that has no role to play. It's for 2018/2019.
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@Billy-Tell ah ok, then I don't think it is a big deal, we could lose 2/3 and not really feel it IMO...even though I don't like losing any players as what these guys can give back at M10 cup level is the biggest thing we lose.
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@taniwharugby said in Exodus 2017:
@Billy-Tell ah ok, then I don't think it is a big deal, we could lose 2/3 and not really feel it IMO...even though I don't like losing any players as what these guys can give back at M10 cup level is the biggest thing we lose.
I don't like it either. But realistically if our 2019 RWC back 3 includes 33 year old smith and 31 year old Dagg we will probably be in trouble.
I will be surprised if Cruden stays: the NZRU can't, won't and shouldn't try and match €800,000 per season. If you offer it to one bench player you'll end up having to offer it to many more.
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@Billy-Tell what I meant was that in an ideal world, while these guys are no longer a big part in the ABs, they stick around playing their part at the lower levels.
Next year Dagg will likely have NMS and Ioane pressing claims for the 14 jersey, leaving Savea and Naholo to scrap it out for the 11 spot, although the thought of say NMS & Naholo/Savea on the wings think it leaves us exposed to an aerial attack.
Maybe Dagg can play 11 if NMS gets back to top form for the other wing?
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If you have to let one go it's Ben Smith just based on age and projecting out to the next RWC. To make it to 2019 anywhere close to his current form would be unprecedented.
The value of proven elite depth at 10 is more attractive to me than either of the other two. It also gives you the option of moving Beauden back to 15 if the Smith hole cannot be filled.
Also who knows how the game will develop over the next 3 years - Cruden provides a nice hedge.
Dagg will likely come the cheapest of the three simply because he seems the least interested in leaving (could have left for the cash after RWC omission and didn't) so I suspect like Jane he will be retained longer than necessary simply because he is willing to come in at a reduced rate.
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Losing Smith would be a disaster IMO.
He is one of the first names on the team sheet.
I don't see how being 33 means he will be past it. His game isn't based on top end speed or power and he is pretty solid when it comes to injuries.Losing Cruden and Dagg wouldn't be ideal but there is cover there.
Hipefully we don't see a mini exodus after the Lions. May dent our RWC hopes a little.
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The Lions series will be a big incentive for a lot of the AB veterans. I'm sure NZR would have liked to have contracted their best players until 2019 to have some security leading into the next RWC.
For the 3 players mentioned, and others whose contract expires in 2017, I don't think it's any coincidence that is linked to being available for the Lions and then having more leverage when negotiating a new contract. Or having the option to head up north. But as Sorenson said, if it's only about the money then NZR can't compete.
I think Cruden is the most likely to go. With Smith and Dagg, Dagg's decision may be dependent on Smith's because if BFA leaves Dagg would be the best option at FB. What Hansen won't want is a repeat of 1990 with Gallagher and Ridge.
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@pukunui said in Exodus 2017:
Losing Smith would be a disaster IMO.
He is one of the first names on the team sheet.If you had have asked me in 2012 to bet the farm on one player making it to the 2015 RWC squad I would have bet Dagg - based on age/form/talent. That didn't pan out.
Players fall off, and quick, before him Mils looked one of our best in 2009 (admittedly there wasn't much competition) and the next year he turned up off the pace in the shadow of Dagg.
We are almost certainly going to get an infusion of back talent over the next three years that need to be accommodated J.Barrett, R.Ioane, D.MacKenzie we know about, NMS will return. There will be others.
At this point in the 2011 cycle Dagg was unknown, Jane and Kahui were on the very periphery of the squad and SBW was in France.
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@rotated said in Exodus 2017:
@pukunui said in Exodus 2017:
Losing Smith would be a disaster IMO.
He is one of the first names on the team sheet.If you had have asked me in 2012 to bet the farm on one player making it to the 2015 RWC squad I would have bet Dagg - based on age/form/talent. That didn't pan out.
Players fall off, and quick, before him Mils looked one of our best in 2009 (admittedly there wasn't much competition) and the next year he turned up off the pace in the shadow of Dagg.
We are almost certainly going to get an infusion of back talent over the next three years that need to be accommodated J.Barrett, R.Ioane, D.MacKenzie we know about, NMS will return. There will be others.
At this point in the 2011 cycle Dagg was unknown, Jane and Kahui were on the very periphery of the squad and SBW was in France.
Similarly guys like Mccaw, Carter, Kaino, Mealamu, Nonu, Smith and Woodcock were written off countless times but most of them were huge at RWC 2015.
I just think Smith's strongest attributes aren't the sorts of things that are affected by age so much. -
