AB Blindside - past, present & future
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@canefan said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
But I might need to feed it into chat gpt for a summary in 100 words or less...
Yeah, I went a bit over the top with the word count. I suppose the summary is:
(1) Poor planning and future-proofing by AB selectors after Kaino
(2) Too many variables in selectors' demands of the position
(3) If divided into tight and loose blindside candidates, plenty of options in NZ
(4) Proper blindside: combination of tight five grunt work and number 8 soft skills
(5) Interesting option for 2025: Simon Parker.That's, I think, the gist of it.
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@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@canefan said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
But I might need to feed it into chat gpt for a summary in 100 words or less...
Yeah, I went a bit over the top with the word count. I suppose the summary is:
(1) Poor planning and future-proofing by AB selectors after Kaino
(2) Too many variables in selectors' demands of the position
(3) If divided into tight and loose blindside candidates, plenty of options in NZ
(4) Proper blindside: combination of tight five grunt work and number 8 soft skills
(5) Interesting option for 2025: Simon Parker.That's, I think, the gist of it.
The selectors and coaches should eat a large slice of blame pie. Lack of leadership starts at the top, and without direction and good communication, how can they expect the players to perform in the way they want?
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@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@canefan said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
But I might need to feed it into chat gpt for a summary in 100 words or less...
Yeah, I went a bit over the top with the word count. I suppose the summary is:
(1) Poor planning and future-proofing by AB selectors after Kaino
(2) Too many variables in selectors' demands of the position
(3) If divided into tight and loose blindside candidates, plenty of options in NZ
(4) Proper blindside: combination of tight five grunt work and number 8 soft skills
(5) Interesting option for 2025: Simon Parker.That's, I think, the gist of it.
I have to ask, though, isn't there the potential factor that they couldn't replace Kaino because no one was consistent enough (or, potentially, flexible enough?)
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@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
I have to ask, though, isn't there the potential factor that they couldn't replace Kaino because no one was consistent enough (or, potentially, flexible enough?)
To me, part of the issue, if we’re talking about the situation immediately after Kaino’s departure (late 2017-’19), is that, in the selectors' eyes, they had already identified the perfect replacement in Squire.
The problem, of course, is that Squire suffered from injuries as well as his own personal struggles. The fact that they selected, in his absence, (1) a player who plays in a completely different manner (Fifita) and (2) a player who was very raw at the time (Frizell), tells me that they never considered that Squire might not make the World Cup.
So the question – were there no players available? – becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as they didn't test the players which could've potentially done a job. To me, there were players in Super Rugby at the time – Brad Shields, Taleni Seu, Akira Ioane – who, at least, mirrored certain aspects of Squire’s play more than someone like Fifita did. So the selectors' mistake, to me, is their overconfidence that Squire would come right and their inability to plan for a scenario where he doesn’t make it.
It’s how you end up in a semi-final of a World Cup with a completely makeshift loose forward trio, which then gets badly outplayed by their opposites.
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@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
I have to ask, though, isn't there the potential factor that they couldn't replace Kaino because no one was consistent enough (or, potentially, flexible enough?)
To me, part of the issue, if we’re talking about the situation immediately after Kaino’s departure (late 2017-’19), is that, in the selectors' eyes, they had already identified the perfect replacement in Squire.
The problem, of course, is that Squire suffered from injuries as well as his own personal struggles. The fact that they selected, in his absence, (1) a player who plays in a completely different manner (Fifita) and (2) a player who was very raw at the time (Frizell), tells me that they never considered that Squire might not make the World Cup.
So the question – were there no players available? – becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as they didn't test the players which could've potentially done a job. To me, there were players in Super Rugby at the time – Brad Shields, Taleni Seu, Akira Ioane – who, at least, mirrored certain aspects of Squire’s play more than someone like Fifita did. So the selectors' mistake, to me, is their overconfidence that Squire would come right and their inability to plan for a scenario where he doesn’t make it.
It’s how you end up in a semi-final of a World Cup with a completely makeshift loose forward trio, which then gets badly outplayed by their opposites.
This is the selection strategy of Fozzie and Razor (to date) in a nutshell. Either don't give players a fair go to see if they can actually make a valuable contribution (the game in Dunedin where Fozzie made wholesale changes springs to mins), or give them a few garbage minutes as lip service (Plummer, Stevenson) and cast them aside. I won't hold my breath waiting to see if Razor can select the best of our promising talent (not just from the area around Nelson and the Port Hills) an molding them into a formidable team with a clear game plan. Although this is exactly what I hoped he would do based on his apparent reputation
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Fifita seemed to lose favour because he was playing lock at the Canes. When he played lock he was a tighter player than Squire. And despite Fifitas comments around contact he was a very physical player.
I'm not sold on the categorisations of loose and tight. It's not so black and white.
For example Akira Ioane played it tight last year. Players tend to play as they're asked to by the coaches. Vern wanted Akira to play tighter and he did.
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@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Fifita seemed to lose favour because he was playing lock at the Canes. When he played lock he was a tighter player than Squire. And despite Fifitas comments around contact he was a very physical player.
I'm not sold on the categorisations of loose and tight. It's not so black and white.
For example Akira Ioane played it tight last year. Players tend to play as they're asked to by the coaches. Vern wanted Akira to play tighter and he did.
That and Akira losing a bit of athleticism in his older years forced him to play closer last season.
Obviously something went on behind the scenes and I'm rewriting history here, but how on earth did Akira Ioane not get a go before the 2019 world cup? Hansen really knew how to hold a grudge especially with some of the bizarre selections before him (Luke Whitelock and Gareth Evans spring to mind). Hansen really began to run that team into the ground from the loss to Ireland in 2016 onwards.
Almost as bizarre as seeing Liam Squire playing so many tests. I don't think he was ever the answer and went missing in big tests once he was getting beaten up physically (Ireland 2018 springs to mind before he went off). Not saying Simon Parker is gonna follow the same fate, but his play is similar to Liam Squire, similar with Finau and Vaea Fifita (Finau Is better thought).
Another guy that wasn't taken into consideration and was treated poorly by Hansen was Steven Luatua. He really started to shine, but Hansen treated him like a prick, received bugger all feedback after being shamed in public in 2014, was the form 6 in 2017 but had already signed overseas by then and part of that was because of Hansen's poor man management towards him and sure enough, once Luatua signed overseas, Hansen had a big whinge about it.
It's taken a few years to recover from Hansen's disastrous last 2-3 years in charge and the 6 spot was one of them.
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There’s this kid Parker that might be worth having a look at
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@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Players tend to play as they're asked to by the coaches.
Well, they'll certainly try. Every player wants, to a certain point, show their coaches that they can deliver what is asked of them.
But there's also such a thing as ingrained habits. Players have instincts which they've cultivated over years of playing the game. And it becomes exponentially harder to suppress those instincts the higher up the game you go, as the pressure increases and your window to process things becomes smaller and smaller.
At least, that's how I think of those things. It just makes sense to me. Perhaps you'll go out there and try to play exactly like your coach has told you to. But when there's 50.000 people around you and an angry Afrikaaner is coming at you at a 100 miles an hour, those instincts tend to kick in pretty quickly.
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@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Players tend to play as they're asked to by the coaches.
Well, they'll certainly try. Every player wants, to a certain point, show their coaches that they can deliver what is asked of them.
But there's also such a thing as ingrained habits. Players have instincts which they've cultivated over years of playing the game. And it becomes exponentially harder to suppress those instincts the higher up the game you go, as the pressure increases and your window to process things becomes smaller and smaller.
At least, that's how I think of those things. It just makes sense to me. Perhaps you'll go out there and try to play exactly like your coach has told you to. But when there's 50.000 people around you and an angry Afrikaaner is coming at you at a 100 miles an hour, those instincts tend to kick in pretty quickly.
I dunno, it feels like a lot of it just comes down to where you stand on the field. If you're near the breakdown, you're going to be carrying into contact. If you're parked out on the wings, you're going to be running in the open field more. It's very hard to be an 'open' player if you're hitting the ball up in the middle of the field.
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@Mr-Fish said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
I dunno, it feels like a lot of it just comes down to where you stand on the field. If you're near the breakdown, you're going to be carrying into contact. If you're parked out on the wings, you're going to be running in the open field more. It's very hard to be an 'open' player if you're hitting the ball up in the middle of the field.
But the question is, how did they end up there, at that particular place on the field? And that does make a big difference. I think there’s three aspects to this: team structure from set-piece, individual decision-making and then, what I’d call, instinctive drift in multi-phase.
Most players end up in positions where they’re supposed to be from something like lineout or scrum attack. So your six might be tasked with clearing a ruck blindside before folding back to the open. That’s just structure.
Then there’s recognition of opportunities by the players themselves on the field. Someone like Finau is a good example of this: he’s constantly calling to space, running improvised lines or creating his own ‘pod’ on the fly. He does seem to play with a lot of freedom at the Chiefs, so he ends up in different places, a lot of it seemingly by his own design.
And finally, as the phases stack up in open play and structure slowly disappears, players are constantly realigning in either attack or defence. And then you see very different patterns with certain players. Some players never move far away from the source, preferring to play close to the ball. Others will naturally drift to the edge, because they’re more comfortable there. That resembles something like instinct.
So the combination of those three factors – structure, individual decision-making and drift – usually make the difference to me between a player who prefers to play tight and someone who prefers to play wider. Again, that’s just how I see it. I’d also understand if this seems like I’m overthinking things, which wouldn’t be the first time.
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Related to the discussion, though Elliot Smith generally seems to be completely full of shit (and most of his articles have no relation to reality):
Elliott Smith: The ABs selection questions hanging over Super Rugby playoffs
OPINION: Some All Blacks hopefuls are sidelined as their teams missed the playoffs.
There’s recent precedent for the playoffs helping to clear up tight selections for the All Blacks coaches, with Wallace Sititi’s wrecking-ball performance against the Hurricanes in last year’s semifinal for the Chiefs helping to earn him a spot.
Akira Ioane and Hoskins Sotutu had a line drawn through their names as the Blues pack was torn to shreds by the Crusaders the previous season, with then All Blacks coach Ian Foster admitting their performances that night had made up the selectors’ minds.
IIRC, Ioane was just returning from a Lisfranc injury.
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@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Players tend to play as they're asked to by the coaches.
Well, they'll certainly try. Every player wants, to a certain point, show their coaches that they can deliver what is asked of them.
But there's also such a thing as ingrained habits. Players have instincts which they've cultivated over years of playing the game. And it becomes exponentially harder to suppress those instincts the higher up the game you go, as the pressure increases and your window to process things becomes smaller and smaller.
At least, that's how I think of those things. It just makes sense to me. Perhaps you'll go out there and try to play exactly like your coach has told you to. But when there's 50.000 people around you and an angry Afrikaaner is coming at you at a 100 miles an hour, those instincts tend to kick in pretty quickly.
There is ingrained habits but your post assumes too much of the players. Macdonald and Foster wanted to play wider games and Akira Ioane obliged. When Vern came along and wanted to keep it close Akira Ioane immediately followed the game pattern and stuck to it all year. So in the case of Akira Ioane I think it shows that clearly they were not ingrained habits.
Also Fifita when he went back to lock for the Canes played a very tight game and was one of the most physical players in the comp. He was also one of the most physical players in the stodgy NH.
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In terms of Parker I saw him as a potential AB last year however I do think that if Blackadder is fit he is likely to be in the squad as the starting 6 with Savea at 7 and Sititi at 8. Jason Ryan loves him some Blackadder and I can't see him looking past him. Personally I'd like to see someone like Parker in the squad over Blackadder but I'll be shocked if it happens.
Haig hasn't had a lot of game time this year. I do think there is a place for Finau and Parker in the squad.
I don't see Razor and co going for a tight 6 under their game plan. They picked Blackadder, Finau, and Sititi as starters last year. They're looking for mobile guys.
In terms of workrate Finau, Parker and Haig are very much alike compared to Blackadder. Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks. With regards to Blackadder the coaches seem to be more interested in volume as opposed to actual impact. He's always been a high volume low impact guy.
Contact Involvements per 80 Minutes Loose Forwards ( Carries + Tackles + Rucks )
69.25 Ethan Blackadder
61.62 Corey Kellow
61.0 Tom Christie
58.87 Dalton Papali'i
58.51 Du'Plessis Kirifi
58.41 Sean Withy
56.02 Jahrome Brown
54.84 Peter Lakai
53.63 Ardie Savea
52.35 Vaiolini Ekuasi
52.17 Luke Jacobson
50.6 Cullen Grace
48.87 Christian Lio-Willie
48.33 Brayden Iose
47.89 Kaylum Boshier
47.36 Hugh Renton
45.14 Hoskins Sotutu
44.21 Simon Parker
42.27 Oliver Haig
39.32 Samipeni FinauTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Rucks Per 80 minutes
35.24 Dalton Papali'i
35.19 Ethan Blackadder
33.57 Sean Withy
31.78 Corey Kellow
31.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
29.68 Tom Christie
29.13 Jahrome Brown
27.87 Ardie Savea
26.91 Luke Jacobson
25.77 Peter Lakai
25.44 Kaylum Boshier
23.85 Cullen Grace
23.35 Simon Parker
22.39 Vaiolini Ekuasi
21.74 Oliver Haig
20.72 Christian Lio-Willie
20.28 Samipeni Finau
20.0 Brayden Iose
19.95 Hoskins Sotutu
16.75 Hugh RentonTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Attacking Ruck Effectiveness
91.8% Samipeni Finau
91.3% Tom Christie
90.2% Dalton Papali'i
90.2% Vaiolini Ekuasi
88.1% Ardie Savea
87.8% Peter Lakai
87.6% Jahrome Brown
86.9% Christian Lio-Willie
85.9% Hoskins Sotutu
85.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi
85.2% Brayden Iose
85.1% Luke Jacobson
85.0% Sean Withy
84.5% Corey Kellow
84.5% Oliver Haig
83.1% Simon Parker
82.6% Hugh Renton
81.9% Cullen Grace
81.5% Ethan Blackadder
77.3% Kaylum BoshierTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Defensive Ruck Effectiveness
29.6% Simon Parker
23.9% Luke Jacobson
23.1% Kaylum Boshier
22.4% Du'Plessis Kirifi
21.9% Samipeni Finau
20.1% Ardie Savea
17.6% Cullen Grace
17.3% Dalton Papali'i
16.1% Tom Christie
15.2% Jahrome Brown
14.8% Christian Lio-Willie
14.7% Sean Withy
13.1% Peter Lakai
12.1% Hoskins Sotutu
12.0% Corey Kellow
11.8% Vaiolini Ekuasi
9.1% Brayden Iose
8.3% Hugh Renton
7.4% Ethan Blackadder
0.0% Oliver HaigTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Dominant Tackle %
16.5% Simon Parker
11.5% Samipeni Finau
8.0% Hugh Renton
7.9% Ardie Savea
7.1% Brayden Iose
6.2% Christian Lio-Willie
6.0% Ethan Blackadder
5.8% Hoskins Sotutu
5.5% Peter Lakai
5.3% Sean Withy
4.4% Kaylum Boshier
4.4% Corey Kellow
4.3% Du'Plessis Kirifi
4.2% Luke Jacobson
3.5% Jahrome Brown
3.4% Cullen Grace
3.3% Tom Christie
3.3% Dalton Papali'i
2.0% Oliver Haig
0.0% Vaiolini EkuasiStats from Opta theanalyst.
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Interesting stats, EBs are even more impressive given he isn't that fast, it is not just Ryan but also Razor who loves him but apart from that do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
How is Parker in the lineout compared to Finau?
I forgot about Luatua, he was good. Vito as a 6/8 (8/6) I also liked. -
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
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@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
Unless he ends up born again hard in the next year or so, I fear EB will end up stuffing our RWC cycle because of a failure of the coaches to see past him for the good of the team
