All Blacks 2025
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I guess they'll also be looking at someone who can play on both sides of the scrum, like Ofa can.
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@African-Monkey Mafileo.
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Is Saula Ma'u worth a look? Don't think he's the finished article, but I think he has a bit if potential to get better.
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@ploughboy said in All Blacks 2025:
you know robertson will pic bower
You could almost guarantee that, right or wrong, he will go with what he’s more comfortable with. Jase Ryan also has that relationship with him
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@African-Monkey Is he playing better than any of the other tighthead props? Would seem to be well down the list.
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@African-Monkey said in All Blacks 2025:
Is Saula Ma'u worth a look? Don't think he's the finished article, but I think he has a bit if potential to get better.
I know they’ve already had eyes on him for a year or 2 down the line. The slight surprise AB XV selection last year shows they are watching him.
His form this year though is a slight concern, not playing at the level he was last year. His minutes have seen a huge increase as well with Kautai struggling to be available consistently.
Still young enough to turn the corner though, there’s a solid player in there. Not in the frame this season though.
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@African-Monkey said in All Blacks 2025:
So from reports, Ofa's injury sounds worse than first thought. Who realistically comes in? Obviously fans of teams are gonna pick their guys to come in, but who sticks out from the rest of the contenders?
Any particular reports, not seen anything? Necks are tricky injuries for props. Was very pleasantly surprised Angus T recovered so well from his.
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2025:
So you think they won't select Tosi? If it's six props there is only a LH spot available.
No they will, my question though is who replaces Ofa in the squad if he doesn't recover?
My other point is whether they look for someone to play on both sides of the scrum, like Ofa has the ability to.
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@Tim said in All Blacks 2025:
@African-Monkey Norris, Mafileo, Fusitua?
I like Norris' work this season - he's doing a good job in the scrum but is he doing enough around the field for the All Blacks?
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@sparky said in All Blacks 2025:
Will Jordan with a MCL injury so a doubt for the France series.
If it's a partial he'll be fine.
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And in a "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" report, Havili will definitely make the All Blacks. Heaps of carries, tackles, defenders beaten in the loss to the Chiefs. Big effort both sides of the ball.
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
@sparky said in All Blacks 2025:
Will Jordan with a MCL injury so a doubt for the France series.
If it's a partial he'll be fine.
I’d rather he took time to get it 100% right.
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
And in a "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" report, Havili will definitely make the All Blacks. Heaps of carries, tackles, defenders beaten in the loss to the Chiefs. Big effort both sides of the ball.
Yet Tupaea outplayed him completely. No doubt Razor will find a spot for his pet though
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@Landers92 said in All Blacks 2025:
I know they’ve already had eyes on him for a year or 2 down the line. The slight surprise AB XV selection last year shows they are watching him.
Good to know there's some sensible future planning in place. We now need to give AB newbies some actual game time.
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@African-Monkey said in All Blacks 2025:
My other point is whether they look for someone to play on both sides of the scrum, like Ofa has the ability to.
It's been a while since Ofa was used as a TH, so I don't think that is a factor.
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
I like Norris' work this season - he's doing a good job in the scrum but is he doing enough around the field for the All Blacks?
These are the Opta stats for some of the loosehead candidates – X. Numia, T. Mafileo, O. Norris, J. Fusitua, and G. Bower – on both the attacking and defending side.
Attack
So on attack, especially as a carrier, Numia seems to offer the most out of the available options, averaging 8.7 carries/80min, while pairing this with the highest percentages in gainline (56.9), dominant carries (52), 2+ tacklers committed (84.5), and tackle evasion (23.1). In contrast, Bower seems to offer the least on attack: while his 7 carries/80min is a respectable number, he scores the lowest on all other percentages, such as dominant carries (7.1), gainline (30), 2+ tacklers committed (60.6) and tackle evasion (6.7).
As a cleaner for attacking rucks, Norris stands out, making 22.6 cleans/80min at a very high rate of effectiveness (91.9%). The others all average around 18-20 cleans/80min, with only Numia having a considerably lower rate at 13 offensive cleans/80min, which can be explained through his higher carrying rate.
Defence
In terms of defence, it has to be said that no single candidate looks to be a bad defender. A tackle success rate of 90+% is more than respectable for a prop, and no loosehead from this group dips below that. In terms of volume – Numia: 11.5 tackles/80min; Mafileo: 12.4 tackles/80min; Norris: 15.6 tackles/80min; Fusitua: 17.8 tackles/80min; Bower: 19.4 tackles/80min – Fusitua and Bower score the highest, while Norris puts in the most dominant tackles (5). As far as the defensive ruck is concerned, Numia and Norris offer the most threat in that area, at 16% and 5.7% effectiveness respectively.
The choice
What the selectors eventually pick will most likely come down to their specific requirements. I suspect they’ll look at scrummaging and other set-piece work first, before seeing whether they want a more offensive-carrying profile (Numia), a hardworking cleaner on attack (Norris), a volume defender (Bower/Fusitua) or someone who can effectively scrummage on both sides (Mafileo).Looking at these profiles, as well as the eye test, it has to be said that loosehead is a position of decent depth right now, as this group doesn’t even take the current AB players into consideration. The biggest question mark will be their scrummaging ability at Test level. And while Norris, Fusitua and Numia have taken considerable leaps in this area in the past two seasons, it still remains to be seen whether they can produce similar results against international tighthead props.
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@Mauss great post thanks. In that case I'd opt for Norris as I'm a big fan of individuals who make the effort to ensure good quality ruck ball. The opportunities that makes are worth triple in Test rugby.
