Super Rugby 2025
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Someone answered my question on Twitter, about all 5 NZ teams losing on one weekend
"Has only happened once before ... Round 12 - 2000, all 5 NZ teams lost.
However, as the Highlanders aren't playing ... 4 NZ teams have lost in the same round on 11 occasions.
Last time was in Round 4 - 2013."
But only 3 teams lost, so not a huge upset in and of itself
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@SouthernMann I didn't realise until the other night the Tahs 1st month of the comp would all occur in Sydney. Reds on the other hand with an icky schedule yesterday Christchurch, this week Brisbane and the following week Dunedin
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Yeah, some common sense and thought should go into the draw. Cue a Tui ad.
The Brumbies played both games in NZ on the same tour. There is no reason that the Reds couldn't have done the same. The Chiefs were originally going to have to go Fiji, NZ and then Tonga in two weeks.
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@Grooter said in Super Rugby 2025:
@SouthernMann I didn't realise until the other night the Tahs 1st month of the comp would all occur in Sydney. Reds on the other hand with an icky schedule yesterday Christchurch, this week Brisbane and the following week Dunedin
I'm guessing this is due to stadium availability with the NRL kicking off?
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Interest in this year's comp should surely be higher than it has been for years. The demise of the Rebels has made the Aussie teams look more competitive amongst themselves and against NZ teams so far.
Apart from the form of the Blues, the only one I'm surprised by on the weekend was the Reds. Genuinely thought they'd be better, even accounting for a good performance by the Crusaders.
I'd say tipping is difficult with such a comp, but I've never troubled the top of the table in that regard.
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I'm enjoying Super Rugby a lot this year. The games are pacy, fun and the gap in standard between the sides is a lot closer than I can ever remember. There have been lots of games where the result goes down to the wire. There are also lots of fantastic young players coming through. Well done to everyone concerned with a great product in 2025.
But we need to be wary of the difference to how international Rugby will be officiated once the Tests arrive.
In Super Rugby, if Refs think it is a try they will give it. At international level, if there is any reasonable doubt at all they will send it to the TMOs to check.
There are tries being given in Super Rugby that would be scrubbed off at International Level because of all the checks that take place after a potential score.
Because of these breaks, the pace of international Rugby is slower. So there will be some superb Super Rugby players who won't be as well suited to the attritional grind of contemporary Test Rugby.
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@sparky said in Super Rugby 2025:
The Super Rugby table after Round 5.
I think the Chiefs are best and the Crusaders probably second best, but not much between the other sides.
It's hard to know where the Crusaders are, they've had two big wins the last two weeks but they've played two weakened Aussie sides at home and have leaked a fair few points. Good thing for them is they are piling on the points.
For me the Chiefs are clearly the best side atm, followed probably by the Reds when they have their full strength side on the park.
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@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:
I expect the Hurricanes/Highlanders rematch in May will decode the final make-up of the top six.
I imagine Chiefs, Crusaders, Reds, Brumbies, Blue will take the top five (more or less in the order).
The Blues have to win one of their home games against either the Crusaders and Canes coming up. Canes likely to be near full strength for that match with a number of players coming back after the bye so that should be close.
Lose both and they will struggle to make the top 6, especially considering they will have to beat the Saders down in Chch two weeks after those matches and then win every remaining game for the season. A big month coming up for the Blues.
I'm picking the below as my top 6
- Chiefs
- Reds
- Crusaders
- Brumbies
- Hurricanes
- Highlanders
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@Canes4life said in Super Rugby 2025:
@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:
I expect the Hurricanes/Highlanders rematch in May will decode the final make-up of the top six.
I imagine Chiefs, Crusaders, Reds, Brumbies, Blue will take the top five (more or less in the order).
The Blues have to win one of their home games against either the Crusaders and Canes coming up. Canes likely to be near full strength for that match with a number of players coming back after the bye so that should be close.
Lose both and they will struggle to make the top 6, especially considering they will have to beat the Saders down in Chch two weeks after those matches and then win every remaining game for the season. A big month coming up for the Blues.
I'm picking the below as my top 6
- Chiefs
- Reds
- Crusaders
- Brumbies
- Hurricanes
- Highlanders
After factoring in two schedules, I'd rather be the Blues (who are 3 points behind the Highlanders but have played an extra game).
Highlanders:
Chiefs
Chiefs
Crusaders
Crusaders
Reds
Brumbies
Hurricanes (w injured players back)
Force (in Perth)
Drua
MoanaBlues:
Crusaders
Crusaders
Reds
Hurricanes (w/o injured players back)
Drua (in Fiji)
Waratahs
Force
Moana
Moana -
@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:
@Canes4life said in Super Rugby 2025:
@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:
I expect the Hurricanes/Highlanders rematch in May will decode the final make-up of the top six.
I imagine Chiefs, Crusaders, Reds, Brumbies, Blue will take the top five (more or less in the order).
The Blues have to win one of their home games against either the Crusaders and Canes coming up. Canes likely to be near full strength for that match with a number of players coming back after the bye so that should be close.
Lose both and they will struggle to make the top 6, especially considering they will have to beat the Saders down in Chch two weeks after those matches and then win every remaining game for the season. A big month coming up for the Blues.
I'm picking the below as my top 6
- Chiefs
- Reds
- Crusaders
- Brumbies
- Hurricanes
- Highlanders
After factoring in two schedules, I'd rather be the Blues (who are 3 points behind the Highlanders but have played an extra game).
I have popped in the result predictions for the remaining games and based off this I have predicted how many points each team will make for the rest of the regular season. I think the Blues and Hurricanes will just pip the Highlanders for a playoff spot which goes against what I posted above. Likelihood is that I'll be completely wrong and there will be plenty of upsets remaining. All of this will be moot anyway as whoever gets in will likely play the Chiefs and/or someone like the Saders away in the quarters so that will be bloody difficult anyway but not impossible if they have most of their players available and healthy.
Highlanders:
Chiefs - likely loss away
Chiefs - 50/50 at home
Crusaders - likely loss away
Crusaders - 50/50 at home
Reds - 50/50
Brumbies - likely loss away
Hurricanes - likely loss away
Force (in Perth) - likely win
Drua - depends if home or away. If away likely loss
Moana - likely winPoints prediction from games above: 21 points which will leave them on 31 points to finish the season
Blues:
Crusaders - 50/50 at home
Crusaders - likely loss away
Reds - if at home likely win, if away 50/50
Hurricanes (w/o injured players back) - 50/50
Drua (in Fiji) - 50/50
Waratahs - likely win
Force - likely win
Moana - likely win
Moana - likely winPoints prediction from games above: 30 points which will leave them on 37 points to finish the season.
Hurricanes:
Waratahs - likely win
Blues - 50/50
Crusaders - 50/50
Force - likely win
Brumbies - the Canes have a horrible record in Canberra
Chiefs - 50/50
Highlanders - likely win
Reds - 50/50
Moana - likely winPoints prediction from games above: 27 points which will leave them on 36 points to finish the season
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@Canes4life the 6th place cutoff last year was 28 points.
If we win 5, we should get to the playoffs. And the run home looks very doable (brain fart against the Brumbies excluded):
M-P
Reds
Drua
M-P
TahsIf you drop drua, you can pick up a game against Sadersx2 or Canes.
That loss to the Brumbies really hurt us. Our draw is so front loaded it's not funny.
