The Silver Fern

Did the All Blacks do some things wrong? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean that we can't legitimately say the 50/50s didn't go our way. I'm not sure the Boks were necessarily that much better, but the day belonged to them, and they got the rub of the green. There's no conspiracy to it, it was just how things fell.

On another day Kolisi gets a red, Frizell doesn't even get penalised, we get a free kick at the end etc. That's rugby at the top level, it just so happened that there were many incidents in that game, which was an abomination. It wasn't a good game, it was a close game which made it tense. The two big quarter-finals are what the game should strive for... could be wrong, but I don't know if there was a singly 10+ phase movement in that game.

Can I just point out, people criticising McLeod, but look at the amount of breakdown turnovers we won. That was a result of excellent structure.

@voodoo said in All Blacks 2023:

@Tim said in All Blacks 2023:

@Stargazer At least he's available for the QF.

Is that a good thing? So far in about 60mins of playing time he's contributed something like 5 knock-ons, 27 missed tackles, 43 scrum penalties and a red card.

Oh and a try

The way people are turning on de Groot to me is bizarre. The All Blacks are noticeably better when he and Lomax are on the field. Didn't have his best game vs France obviously, but it got way overblown. Wasn't where we lost the game.

Was his tackle vs Namibia on the poor side? Of course it was. But it also isn't the thuggery shoulder charge some people are trying to make it out to be. He is far better than Ofa, and we should 100% rush him straight back in come the quarters.

@Canes4life said in Exodus:

@African-Monkey he's just another Brett Cameron, steady without being spectacular. Not a big loss tbh, especially considering Beaudy is coming back to cover 10.

We'll see. Thought Burke looked to be coming into his own for Canterbury. Whilst this might not necessarily be a great loss to the All Blacks, this is the exact sort of player the Silverlake Deal should be keeping playing Super Rugby.

In all probability, six wins is going to be the mark to be assured of the finals. By that measure, the Canes, Blues, Brumbies and Chiefs are all already home and hosed.

• The Rebels currently sit on five wins, but have one of, if not the toughest run home. Blues and Chiefs at home, and Reds, Brumbies and Drua away. Feasible they could still miss out.

• Reds are currently on four wins, but have played much better rugby than that, with the Force, Waratahs and Rebels still to play, they should get at least six wins (Drua and Crusaders away the other two fixtures)

• Drua are also on four wins, but are far more interesting due to their inability to win away from home. For that reason, to get to six wins, they'd need to beat both the Reds and Rebels at home to get to six... admittedly quite doable, but certainly little margin for error if they can't win away (Brumbies, Force and Highlanders)

• Despite being straight-up rubbish of late, the Highlanders hold eighth with three wins to their name. Assuming they beat the Drua at home, they need to win 2/4 of their remaining fixtures (Moana, Blues and Canes away, Crusaders at home) so in other words, they need to beat Moana and the Crusaders to get to six wins.

• Moana are also on three wins. With games against the Chiefs and Canes likely losses, that leaves them needing to beat the Highlanders (in Tonga) and Waratahs at home, and the Crusaders away. Certainly not impossible, although unlikely.

• Crusaders are on two wins, so need to win four out of: Reds, Blues and Moana (Home) and Brumbies and Highlanders (Away). Not inconceivable, but to beat the Blues and Brumbies is an uphill battle in the context.

• Waratahs are on two wins, both against the Crusaders, but crucially have a decent run home. They're away to the Hurricanes this week, but then finish off with Brumbies (H), Force (A), Moana (A), Reds (H). If they can take the Brumbies at home, they might just get enough momentum to win all four of those.

• Force are on two wins, with their only saving grace being that they have 3/5 of their remaining games in Perth. They should lose to the Chiefs this week, however they'll back themselves against the Drua and Tahs (H). Would have them on four wins with Reds (A) and Brumbies (H) remaining.

That being said, I think the Rebels don't win another game (5 Wins), Reds win three (7 Wins), Drua get one win (5 Wins), Highlanders get two wins (5 Wins), Moana don't win another game (3 Wins), Crusaders get three wins (5 Wins), Waratahs get 3 wins (5 Wins), Force get 2 wins (4 Wins)... this is if I have done my maths right.

Would leave the Reds a clear 5th, and with five teams from 6-10th all on five wins, sending it to BPs, which probably sees the Rebels 6th, Crusaders 7th and Highlanders 8th.

Highlanders next two games though are massive in the context of the whole playoff race. If they win both, Moana and the Crusaders almost certainly out of it. If they lose both, they're out of it, and the final round-robin match between Moana and the Crusaders could be like a Round of 16 game (even though it is a 12-team comp lol)

@sparky said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:

@MajorRage Ardie overlooked for the captaincy, albeit for a very good candidate in Scott Barrett

Akira Ioane, nowhere to be seen, although he's signed to go to Japan.

Hoskins Sotutu not included, but given some encouraging comments by the Head Coach.

We might not like it, but questions will be asked if there's a pattern here?

The irony here. Sotutu misses out to Sititi. Ioane misses out to Finau.

The Barrett as captain has nothing to do with racism, and everything to do with being a trusted ally.

@BerniesCorner said in RWC SF: All Blacks v Argentina:

Play Roigard. He was awesome against SA. Give him time against Argentina

I don't know if this is satire, but I'm going to lose my mind if people spend all week moaning about Roigard.

For right or for wrong they think Christie is their second best, and World Cup SFs aren't about giving people time. Smith will probably play 70 minutes minimum, unless we are up by like 20 with 20 to play, but I can't see that.

If it is one score, wouldn't be stunned to see Smith go the 80 again.

Can only think he was promised a special bench would be built for Michael Manson.

@Machpants I think 3 is a little low. Taylor was one of, if not the best All Black on defence. Lineout was a shambles, but not solely to blame. Did give away that dumb penalty, but he carried well, so a real mixed game.

TSF now stands for The Sotutu Forum

Big issue was taking the three at 30-26... was asking a lot to get back down the other end, a confident All Black side puts that in the corner and goes for the kill.

BB is playing the gameplan... Will Jordan's big weakness is kicking and people want to play him at fullback? I don't follow. The modern-day game is one in the air, by working good competitive kicks, and kicking well for territory.

The hatred towards Barrett these days is a little bit bizarre. People are holding him up to unrealistic standards, watch that game without any knowledge of that New Zealand side, and I'm not really sure you'd come away with fullback as being the big issue.

Lack of punch from the bench, and the majority of our starting forwards, and a poor game from Will Jordan rate is far bigger issues for mine.

Papalii is one thing, but if the selectors think Vaa'i is better at 6 than Jacobson, then I really don't see why they selected him in the squad.

@Duluth said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:

How many names have been mentioned now? 60?

Props:
de Groot
Williams
Newell
Bower
Lomax
Numia
Tosi
Dyer
Tu'ungafasi
Ta'avao
Renata
(11)

Hookers:
Taylor
McAllister
Bell
Aumua
Taukei'aho
Thompson
Riccitelli
(7)

Locks:
Dunshea
S Barrett
Hannah
Strange
Walker-Leawere
Delaney
Vaa'i
Lord
Tuipulotu
Darry
(10)

Loose Forwards:
Haig
Harmon
Lio-Willie
Blackadder
Grace
Iose
Savea
Lakai
Finau
Jacobson
Sititi
Cane
Sotutu
A Ioane
Papalii
(15)

(43 Forwards)

Halfbacks:
Fakatava
Hotham
Perenara
Ratima
Christie
Funaki
(6)

First Fives:
McKenzie
B Barrett
Perofeta
Plummer
(4)

Midfielders:
Havili
McLeod
J Barrett
Procter
Lienert-Brown
Tupaea
Rona
Pohipi
Lam
R Ioane
(10)

Outside Backs:
Nareki
Tavatavanawai
Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens
Fihaki
Reece
Love
Stevenson
Nanai-Seturo
Narawa
Clarke
Telea
Z Sullivan
(12)

(32 Backs)

So unless I have missed anyone, 75 different players have had a shout.

Disappointing team. Blackadder never the answer at 6, Ratima deserved to start, Clarke deserved to start at 11 too... had heard Jordan was starting, bench spot only makes sense on his return. Will be fun to see what he can do off the bench.

The midfield is shaping as the most fascinating battle for the All Blacks squad this year. There are loads of players in the frame, but few who should/are actually shoe-ins to make the squad.

The Incumbents
Jordie Barrett - The incumbent second five is currently playing at Leinster, so won't be able to be compared to those playing Super Rugby. Has the best long-range kicking game, and is a certainty to hold his spot in the squad.

Rieko Ioane - The incumbent centre has split opinions for the ABs, and a lacklustre start to the Super Rugby season won't be helping his case. You wonder whether a rumoured sabbatical would have been a good option for him too. On current form, could he struggle to make the squad?

Anton Lienert-Brown - Another who split opinions, the incumbent bench option had some decent showings last year, but hardly enough to nail his spot. Looks good in a good Chiefs backline, but has equally been outshone by others. Should be under-pressure.

David Havili - Give me strength. Should be nowhere near it - Next.

Billy Proctor - Impressed in limited chances for the ABs last year. Has a big chance to show his quality if he returns to a struggling Canes side. Due back in the next couple of weeks if the positive reports are to be believed, though conflicting reports suggest it could be much longer, which would derail an ABs push.

The NZ EOYT Boys

Quinn Tupaea - Just three rounds in, but he has started the year like a house on fire, and looks back to his best - if not even better than his previous level. On current form, he walks back into the ABs squad, and has serious claims to start.

Riley Higgins - Due back in a few weeks, and will have ground to make up. Was tipped to be the big mover this year, but his own injuries and his team's struggling form may mean he has to wait for the time being, but with a good run over the second half of the season, it could be the case of performing at the right time.

AJ Lam - Has been ineffectual for the Blues through the first three rounds. A good player, but probably one who has looked slightly better than he is because of the quality around him. Unless he can prove otherwise, his All Blacks chances seem slim.

Dallas McLeod - Benched for the first two for the Crusaders, but likely to start this week. With a big season, the current coaching group will have him in mind. Certainly showed he has the attributes for Canterbury, and was picked by the last coaching group for good reason. One to watch.

The Chasing Pack
Timoci Tavatavanawai - Easily the biggest mover over the first three rounds, after making what seems to be a full-time switch to the midfield. A tougher outing versus Moana Pasifika, but still beat several defenders and won three turnovers. May not be the man to start at 12, but he looks a very enticing bench option.

Brayden Ennor - Don't forget about Ennor. If he can put a run of games together, he might be the smartest centre in the country, or at the very least one of the better distributors. Seems to be the wrong age profile though, and can't stay fit.

Peter Umaga-Jensen - Seems a longshot, but was capped by the All Blacks for a reason. Midfield injuries are presenting him a chance to have a genuine run of games. A return to black does look highly unlikely that said.

The Could be Worth a Look if Bizarre things Occur
Tanielu Tele'a - Looking good in an improved Highlanders team. Nowhere near All Black quality as things stand, but might be in the frame for the NZ XV

Corey Evans/Xavi Taele/Zarn Sullivan - Would suggest any of these guys are All Blacks this year, but the way things going, someone else is going to get a chance in the Blues midfield at some point, and if they spark a turnaround in form, they will always be in the international conversation.

We've picked four opensides. Unbelievable.

This is what I have across the board for 23/24. Keen to hear how correct this is/more info that can be added.

I thought McKenzie was our worst player by a mile. His in-play kicking and decision making was the worst part of what we were doing.

The question has been asked, is this an improved squad on last year, and I will categorically say yes. Break it down position by position:

Prop:

• Same crop of players as last year, all of whom will be a year more experienced. Certainly haven't got weaker, and if Ma'u can kick on as he threatened to do in the NPC, this is an improvement

Hooker:

• Whilst we are young and inexperienced here, I don't think you could say we have got worse, because all three of our hookers were poor last year, hence why they have not been re-signed. Bell and Taylor both have potential, and are local, which is better than having old journeyman from elsewhere

Lock:

• Dickson is a loss, but he isn't better than Dunshea who has arrived to replace him. Holland a year older, Parkinson another year into his recovery from that huge knee injury, once again, you couldn't say we have got worse here, especially as we played the majority of last season without half of our locks anyway

Loose Forward:

• Frizell is a loss, but don't forget he was useless for the Landers for the majority of last season. Likewise, MMT was quiet and largely injured
• Sanders probably just another toiler, but with time in the saddle, Broughton could easily really kick on. Withy likewise, whilst Haig and Michaels have plenty of potential.
• We won't be much worse here, by virtue of the fact our most commonly used trio was Withy, Harmon & Renton. Hopefully Broughton and/or Haig can kick on straight away.

Halfback:

• No kidding ourselves, Smith is a loss not just for his ability, but also his experience... HOWEVER, he only played about half of our games last year anyway, and a lot of his strengths didn't really suit the Highlanders, because we lacked a running 10, so his strong passing was probably wasted on us
• With the security of being the outright best halfback, I expect Fakatava to have a big season. I think when he knows he isn't playing for his place, he is a better player
• Depth is a bit of an issue here granted, so I accept we have got weaker, but whether that eventuates, we will see

First Five:

• Banks was unsighted, Hunt not up to it, and Burns largely injured... so can we be much worse? Burns by the end of the season was really tidy, but you'd hope Patchell is an equal replacement
• Then Millar, hopefully can get himself fit, and if he does he will be fine. Once again, not really a drop off. Faleafaga won't play much at 10 unless there is injuries, but as a pure playmaker, there is plenty to like there

Midfield:

• Paea and Gregory are not losses. Te Hiwi might not be a superstar, but he won't be worse. Matt Whaanga I guess the like for like replacement (though obviously technically the TUJ injury replacement) and again, he couldn't be any worse than those guys.
• Is Telea'a as good as TUJ? I guess we will find out, but for all of TUJ's good ball carrying, there was reason he was dropped by the end of last season. If Telea'a can bring some extra speed to the team, it will be an upgrade, and most importantly, if he can stay fit, because both have had their injury troubles... put it this way, at the very worst we are still shit in midfield, but you can't get worse than shit. If all clicks with Gilbert and Telea'a, then it could be the best midfield in half a decade (not saying much granted)

Outside Backs:

• A big issue was a lack of spark from our outsides, JRK and Tavatavanawai are both game breakers, who can create tries from nothing, this will be a massive upgrade, because we have struggled for spark. Also, don't forget, in theory we will have Nareki all season, which he was injured for the majority of last.

I see a team who has largely upgraded by recruitment, or at the very least will be improving by natural progression. The pack went well last year, and has not got weaker.

The backs were appalling, and whatever you might think about the inside backs, having a back three of Nareki, Tavatavanawai and Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens with Bogado in reserve to start the season, is a massive upgrade.

The Team which took on the Blues in R1 Last Year was:

1. de Groot
2. Marshall
3. Ainsley
4. Parkinson
5. Dickson
6. Frizell
7. Harmon
8. Mikaele-Tu'u
9. Fakatava
10. Hunt
11. Garden-Bachop
12. Umaga-Jensen
13. Timu
14. Lowe
15. Gilbert

In my opinion, the team which starts in R1 v Moana Pasifika in 2024 will be quite comfortably better than that.

I'll tag in @Canes4life, who is totally entitled to his opinion, but I'm curious as to where you can definitively say this team is weaker.

We'll have a better season than last year, both because we have got better, but also because we'll probably get some luck, which we didn't get a lot of last year. Add in the fact that the other sides have all got weaker, and I expect we'll probably win at least seven games... and even if we don't, we shouldn't panic.

This is a 2-3 year project, and the majority of these players are signed up for that period.