The Silver Fern

Haven't been to any games this year - Cake Tins swirling wind is unbearable. But to watch the Lions win the whole damn thing? Would never forgive myself if I stayed home.

Anyone in Wellington looking to flick off some tickets - I be keen. Got the heart of a Lion though

When do finals tickets go on sale?

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="mariner4life" data-cid="599198" data-time="1469260166"><p>
I have what no gambler's had before, a system!<br><br>

• Homer Simpson</p></blockquote>
  <br>
  Really says it all. Shouldn't be legal and it preys on people who can't say no.<br><br>
  But if someone is gonna do it then doing so with some knowledge seems a safer bet.

Thing I find most effective is to stay away from $1.10 - $1.20 bets all together. It's a two horse race and those odds just aren't attractive enough to back any side.<br><br>
Most effective is to only back those you have a strong hunch about and that are paying good odds ($1.70+). Then just set yourself a target and back your investment and return until you meet that target. I like points start best cause you can call the outsider to run them close very often if you follow rugby closely and the odds are usually around $1.87.<br><br>
$20 at $1.87 5 times is almost $460

I do quite well on Points Starts. Lions were an absolute gold mine this year. Haven't taken a margin bet in years.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="SammyC" data-cid="598649" data-time="1469135033"><p>
I have a mate who makes good money off it, took 8 months off work last year to pursue it as a career.<br><br>
He's the most boring person in the world to watch a game with, he'll have his laptop, Ipad and I phone all in front of him checking odds and watching other games that are on at the same time.<br><br>
He's signed up to 4 different sites.... NZ TAB, William Hill, Bet fair and Bet 365 I think.<br><br>
Bets regularly on Rugby, NRL, Darts, NBA, NFL, Cricket, Tennis and many other sports. I'd say he watches upwards of 35 hours of sport a week so it's a full time job in itself.<br><br><br>
He doesnt speak too highly of the NZ TAB, who often deny larger bets,are slow to pay out, and their in game options are so slow to update compared to the other sites<br><br>
In game options are when he makes a lot of money, total points in game, total tries etc. Reckons the NRL is really predicable in this regard. He's really good at weighing up odds in his mind and covering his losses if things get tight.</p></blockquote>
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Don't know about you but I'd hate to live with that kind of uncertainty. Wonder how he handles it mentally.<br><br>
Might hate getting up in the mornings but living comfortably with a steady stream of money makes it worth it!<br><br>
I have a knack for numbers and worked out spreadsheets and things to do the same exact thing but decided it just wasn't a healthy, interesting or prestigious occupation to pursue

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Don Frye" data-cid="598626" data-time="1469122148"><p>
Subsequent lack of success at identifying "sure things" may throw doubt on previous "sure thing" predictions.</p></blockquote>
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Thanks for that haha.<br><br>
Rather my point is that if you can hit the upsets consistently then you can do well in theory.... But nobody gonna get rich off it.

You live in New Zealand? TAB website & app works just fine.<br><br>
What I can say about gambling on rugby specifically is that if you have discipline and show restraint you can make good money. But that's nearly impossible for most people because most people who gamble aren't really going in to win, and they don't know when to not take chances or walk away.<br><br>
Back in 2007 I made an absolute fortune backing both the Sharks to make the semi-finals ($4 - they finished top of the table) and backing the Springboks to win the Rugby World Cup ($8.50 in January). I was calling those two as near sure things to everyone I knew. Schalk Burger was near the best player in the world at that time and was returning from injury to bolster the Springboks and so on so I thought Jake White would have a plan. Pretty much paid for any world travel I wanted to do as an early-20's.<br><br>
But haven't had nearly that luck since and week-to-week bets often went astray so I decided on only backing teams paying $1.80 or more and only if I had strong feelings about it. Don't think I'll ever have a year like 2007 again though.<br><br>
It is easy to get carried away and I'd advise people to stay away rather. Seen too many people gamble a weeks pay on what they thought was a sure thing and then need to borrow money. Crazy stuff. Not sure why it's legal.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Billy Tell" data-cid="589584" data-time="1466278389"><p>The worst token black player is kolisi. He is just not an international class 7.</p></blockquote>
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Absolutely HATE pulling the token card because it makes people think you're only picking on certain players while there are numerous players who should've been ashamed of their performance, but when you look at it on a case-by-case basis, then Kolisi is the most obvious of the lot. Doesn't have the build or the type of game required of a blindside and was thrown in there hoping that he'd somehow be able to run the ball like Willem Alberts while still getting around the field quickly.<br><br>
They're going to have a tough time keeping the numbers up while accommodating Ruan Combrinck as well.<br><br><br><blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Disgusted of TW" data-cid="589580" data-time="1466276714"><p>Yes, Combrinck definitely made a difference. Haven't seen any of the SA franchises games this year, is Combrinck just a run through walls in a straight line guy (effective today, for sure), or does he bring more than that? I was also impressed by the stocky little blonde girl at 9, very busy, very nippy.</p></blockquote>
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The bump offs were actually somewhat surprising. He's usually more of a beat you one on one and break down the sideline type player who makes very few mistakes. I think what that was was being pissed off watching what was happening from the sideline.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Billy Tell" data-cid="589574" data-time="1466269557"><p>Ouch.</p></blockquote>
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Haha I thought for sure it was over. In my defense I thought 12 - 3 scoreline was two Irish tries. They did very well to come back.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Tordah" data-cid="589575" data-time="1466270068"><p>that Aussie ref was pretty good. Thought he was one of the best in Super Rugby, too</p></blockquote>
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I'm gonna disagree and say he missed a lot. The most blatant was Elton Jantjies launching an up and under and Franco Mostert was about 10m in front of him and already moving forward. He got to the receiver about the same time as Jantjies. Would've been a sure 3 points for Ireland at a crucial time.<br><br>
Send us Wayne Barnes any day. The kiwis have a moan about him for one off decisions (because of that grudge) but his consistency and accuracy... For me it makes him the best referee in world rugby.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Pixel_Ninja" data-cid="589571" data-time="1466268698"><p>Mvovo and Kolisi shown up by their replacements.</p></blockquote>
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Whiteley actually came on for Duane. Made him look amateur too.<br><br>
Combrinck needs to replace Mvovo who has never been good enough.<br><br>
Other players who need to be looked at: Etzebeth, Louw, Pietersen (he's just terrible) and Willie (who needs to be more accurate)

How good was Ruan Combrinck and Warren Whiteley when they came on? Saved our butts.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Tordah" data-cid="589563" data-time="1466266073"><p>
who would you have in for whom?</p></blockquote>
Steven Kitshoff has been the best loosehead in South Africa for at least 2 years. Give him a chance.<br><br>
Damian de Allende has just given us the lead with a good try, but dear oh dear how many tackles has he missed?<br><br>
First Irish try was a direct result of Mvovo playing like he does and cowering away from a high ball. I can name a handful of better wingers but none that are considered "African" by the government.<br><br>
Siya Kolisi has been nothing short of a disaster.<br><br>
The difference between teams at test level is minuscule. When you're giving up 20% of your effectiveness by not picking the best player for each position, you're making it much much harder for yourself. Coaching is only a small part of it.<br><br>
Very relieved with the win. Very surprised, but very very very relieved.<br><br>
My heart breaks for Allister Coetzee. He's an incredible guy. But he will be given mission impossible over the next 4 years.

Woke up so I checked the score. Just had a good laugh. An extra $300 in the pocket so no complaints from my side. If you don't wanna pick your best players cause you don't like their skin tone then that's what you deserve. RIP Springboks

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Hooroo" data-cid="587242" data-time="1465769206"><p>
I'm seeing quite a few SA facebook mates that live in England think about just supporting England now the quotas are taking over. I expect that if Ireland win the series then that will further enhance their decision.<br><br>
Gee I feel sorry for Bok supporters at the moment.</p></blockquote>
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I've always had a soft spot for the Irish and Argies. I won't be watching any more Springbok games. Cancelled my Sky subscription as well - only ever used it to watch the rugby but no point anymore because they aren't interested in winning and letting their best players onto the field. I'd love to write Sky a letter letting them know that they shouldn't bother paying so much for the product anymore but I doubt it'll make much difference. Given up.

U20 quotas just lost to Argentina as well. And the sports minister has the nerve to say that it's teething problems and that we need to pray for the racists. If that's the case then I pray for you Mr. Mbalula

Never been so disappointed to have made a quick 500 bucks

Even if the Boks claw it back, which looks unlikely, this has been a pathetic performance.<br><br>
Doomsayers proven right I suppose