Exodus 2017
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@Darren-Nicholson that's only because the 'canes have had a month off...
He's got "early years Rodney So'oialo" hands
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@Nepia said in Exodus 2017:
@No-Quarter said in Exodus 2017:
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
NQ - I reckon Ardie's lacking a bit of height and weight to be a genuine option as an international No. 8. No matter how much energy he brings it's hard to see him as a bullocking, hard driving 8 that I like to see. Even as an openside flanker I reckon Hansen would like to see him a bit bigger a la Cane and McCaw.
Lacking a bit in height probably, but in a similar mold to Rodders who did a great job for us over a number of years. He made some very strong runs when he came on in the weekend, his leg drive is out of this world, so I'm not sold that he doesn't have the physicality required with ball in hand. The wide ranging game suits him a lot better then staying tight and smacking blokes backwards like Cane and Kaino.
Yeah, lets say looking in the future that it's Cane at 7 and a slightly tighter Akira at 6 then you could definitely have a wider ranging 8.
Maybe Squire will be the guy for a few years, ticks the height and then robustness, age might count against him, but players last a bit longer these days.
On the other hand - assuming that Kaino really does retire this year - we can hopefully have at least Squire/Ioane, Cane/Ardie, Read combos through to 2019, by which time the landscape will have changed quite a lot.
You'd hope that, imminently, we're only likely to lose Kaino and Crockett due to age - aside from those already with seats booked on the plane - with Kieran Read, Ben Smith (get well!) and SBW as the next tranche - maybe after the next RWC.
It all bodes pretty well and - despite that he annoys me at times - you have to say Steve Tew has done a pretty sterling job in running NZ rugby. Especially when you see the way the Aussies and Jaapies are struggling.
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@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB, Cruden and Sops, we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
worry? No. By having a player the quality of Sopoaga not even make our test 23 we are in a better spot than basically everyone.
But counting the rest of that list as some kind of measure of depth? A guy who hasn't looked good at 10, and miserably failed his last audition. A guy who has had a breakout season in Super rugby behind a great pack, but battled when the pack got under pressure. Then guys from the 20s, and we've over-rated guys based on that tournament more than once. None of those guys would make the Wallabies 23 as 10s FFS.
Next year, we are an injury from one of them being in the 23.
Yes, this is depth; maybe not for now, but for years to come. I prefer looking ahead; short-term thinking hasn't brought the ABs to the top where they are now. This list is our top "production line". Only Dmac and Mo'unga are players they'll look at in the first two years. I don't think we can dismiss those two as prospects for the near future based on one game against the Lions, esp not Mo'unga who has never played or even trained at test level, unlike Dmac. Both are excellent, young SR players who may develop into good or even great Abs, although I'd prefer Dmac at fullback. Until they are, I expect that players like TJP and, possibly, Dagg and Jordie will cover 10 in emergencies. I have faith in our coaches and they have had plenty of time to think about solutions for those emergencies; I'm sure they have thought about it thoroughly and have a plan.
@KiwiMurph I thought about adding Plummer, but didn't because I don't know what the reason was why he didn't make the U20s, not even the wider training camps late last year (while other 18 year-olds did). He wasn't injured. He may make the U20s next year though.
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@KiwiMurph said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talent
Yep McClutchie was very impressive when he played for NZ Barbarians Schools last year. Another one is Harry Plummer (turned 19 last week, out of St Peters College Auckland) who was the NZ Schools 10 last year. He's the top points scorer in his first season of Auckland club rugby this year in a middle of the road Grammar TEC side.
Also - more on the topic of the thread - Auckland outside back Lolagi Visinia has headed offshore to take up a contract with FC Grenoble in France
So the pigeon arrived?
He already signed last November. -
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
Yes, this is depth; maybe not for now, but for years to come. I prefer looking ahead; short-term thinking hasn't brought the ABs to the top where they are now
alternatively, just about all of our top level All Blacks are in the team within 2 years of their Super rugby debut. Some, like Dane Coles, take a while to build, but most fall in to their lap. What they seem to do is pick the right ones, and get them in early.
Looking too far ahead is pointless. Any new players coming in to the team in 2 years probably aren't even Super rugby players at the moment.
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@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
Only Dmac and Mo'unga are players they'll look at in the first two years. I don't think we can dismiss those two as prospects for the near future based on one game against the Lions, esp not Mo'unga who has never played or even trained at test level, unlike Dmac. Both are excellent, young SR players who may develop into good or even great Abs, although I'd prefer Dmac at fullback. Until they are, I expect that players like TJP and, possibly, Dagg and Jordie will cover 10 in emergencies.
Hell no, to that last sentence!
You can't just press people who don't play there into service at first five in a test match.
I think the first five plan for the next couple of years very clearly should be....
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With a bit of luck we'll have Beauden available to start most tests including all the hardest ones.
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We'll have Lima available to step into the current Cruden role of being on the bench for most tests and starting a few of the lesser ones to develop him in case Beaudy gets injured for a significant period.
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We'll have Richie Mo'unga to step into the apprentice role that Lima's been playing for the past couple of years with a few bench games and maybe the odd start.
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We'll have DMac playing a season of NPC and then helming the Chiefs for a Super season to see how he goes, relative to Otere Black and Ihaia West at the Blues. If any of these guys turn out to be outstanding they can supplant Richie.
Barring both our first fives being broken in a single test, we shouldn't see anyone else in that role.
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Right, I'm starting a "depth chart thread" for 2018 qualified NZ players.
I need to know who I should be hoping signs for the Blues.
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@Chris-B. I agree with that. I'm probably using a more urgent interpretation of emergencies than you do, as in "immediate, because BB/Sops goes down while they are in South Africa and the next 10 isn't ready yet". It underlines the importance of bringing in a new 10 in the squad (as an apprentice) as soon as possible. I hope they pick an apprentice for the RC and don't wait for the EOYT.
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@Bovidae said in Exodus 2017:
The replenishment of the props will be interesting, mainly because the next tier have little or no international experience - yet.
At TH, Charlie is leaving and Franks won't be going on forever. Ofa T is obviously considered the next in line and he will get more opportunity at TH for the Blues from next season to prove he's up to it. After that there is Laulala and JTA.
At LH, Crockett is 34 so will need to be replaced before 2019. The next tier is Hames, Manu and Goodes.
There should be a place available on the EOYT for one of the above.
There would be an argument for taking six props on EOYT. One each 'new' LH and TH.
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@No-Quarter said in Exodus 2017:
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
NQ - I reckon Ardie's lacking a bit of height and weight to be a genuine option as an international No. 8. No matter how much energy he brings it's hard to see him as a bullocking, hard driving 8 that I like to see. Even as an openside flanker I reckon Hansen would like to see him a bit bigger a la Cane and McCaw.
Lacking a bit in height probably, but in a similar mold to Rodders who did a great job for us over a number of years. He made some very strong runs when he came on in the weekend, his leg drive is out of this world, so I'm not sold that he doesn't have the physicality required with ball in hand. The wide ranging game suits him a lot better then staying tight and smacking blokes backwards like Cane and Kaino.
When I'm being really harsh, I reckon the Richie, Jerry, Rodders combo was one of the primary reasons we weren't quite as dominant in Henry's first cycle as we have been subsequently.
The lineout was often a substantial problem that we blamed our throwers for. But the advent of Kaino and Read as tall loose forward options almost immediately solved the woes of Anton and Kevvy (especially).
I'm expecting Codie Taylor and the coaches to rectify some significant lineout problems we had last Saturday - it was an area we should have dominated and didn't. I'll be very disappointed if that isn't a significant point of AB improvement in Wellington giving us quite a bit more first phase possession.
Need to give Gatland some significant credit for winning this phase with a shorter lineout.
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NZ depth at 1st Five eight is ridiculous.
The biggest concern is at tighthead where Faumuina's departure leaves a big hole. Ofa T has got the selectors confidence but he is a serious drop of quality despite being OK in his few appearances under the black jersey. Laulala hasn't stepped up this year. He was better with the Crusaders than he is with the Chiefs. Maybe his knee hasn't healed completely ?
Let's see how JTA performs tonight. The EOYT will be a good occasion to test NZ depth there with two tests against France in 4 days. This means that three (at least) or four THPs will be named. -
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
@Tim said in Exodus 2017:
Also, how do people rate the Highlander's props?
The only one I know much about is Halanukonuka, who is hard to budge in the scrum, but not eligible for NZ.
Aki Seiuli looked pretty useful at LH when he came on for Clan against Lions.
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@pakman said in Exodus 2017:
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
@Tim said in Exodus 2017:
Also, how do people rate the Highlander's props?
The only one I know much about is Halanukonuka, who is hard to budge in the scrum, but not eligible for NZ.
Aki Seiuli looked pretty useful at LH when he came on for Clan against Lions.
Seiuli is brilliant ball in hand.
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@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB, Cruden and Sops, we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
worry? No. By having a player the quality of Sopoaga not even make our test 23 we are in a better spot than basically everyone.
But counting the rest of that list as some kind of measure of depth? A guy who hasn't looked good at 10, and miserably failed his last audition. A guy who has had a breakout season in Super rugby behind a great pack, but battled when the pack got under pressure. Then guys from the 20s, and we've over-rated guys based on that tournament more than once. None of those guys would make the Wallabies 23 as 10s FFS.
Next year, we are an injury from one of them being in the 23.
Yes, this is depth; maybe not for now, but for years to come. I prefer looking ahead; short-term thinking hasn't brought the ABs to the top where they are now. This list is our top "production line". Only Dmac and Mo'unga are players they'll look at in the first two years. I don't think we can dismiss those two as prospects for the near future based on one game against the Lions, esp not Mo'unga who has never played or even trained at test level, unlike Dmac. Both are excellent, young SR players who may develop into good or even great Abs, although I'd prefer Dmac at fullback. Until they are, I expect that players like TJP and, possibly, Dagg and Jordie will cover 10 in emergencies. I have faith in our coaches and they have had plenty of time to think about solutions for those emergencies; I'm sure they have thought about it thoroughly and have a plan.
@KiwiMurph I thought about adding Plummer, but didn't because I don't know what the reason was why he didn't make the U20s, not even the wider training camps late last year (while other 18 year-olds did). He wasn't injured. He may make the U20s next year though.
You can't tell an Anscombe from a Barrett at that level.
Honestly. Is Plummer, or Falcon a Dan Kirkpatrick or a Dan Carter? It's silly including them in any discussion at this stage.
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@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
@KiwiMurph I thought about adding Plummer, but didn't because I don't know what the reason was why he didn't make the U20s, not even the wider training camps late last year (while other 18 year-olds did). He wasn't injured. He may make the U20s next year though.
Plummer had shoulder surgery after the NZ Schools campaign last year and is targetting next year's U20 team.
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@Rapido said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB, Cruden and Sops, we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
worry? No. By having a player the quality of Sopoaga not even make our test 23 we are in a better spot than basically everyone.
But counting the rest of that list as some kind of measure of depth? A guy who hasn't looked good at 10, and miserably failed his last audition. A guy who has had a breakout season in Super rugby behind a great pack, but battled when the pack got under pressure. Then guys from the 20s, and we've over-rated guys based on that tournament more than once. None of those guys would make the Wallabies 23 as 10s FFS.
Next year, we are an injury from one of them being in the 23.
Yes, this is depth; maybe not for now, but for years to come. I prefer looking ahead; short-term thinking hasn't brought the ABs to the top where they are now. This list is our top "production line". Only Dmac and Mo'unga are players they'll look at in the first two years. I don't think we can dismiss those two as prospects for the near future based on one game against the Lions, esp not Mo'unga who has never played or even trained at test level, unlike Dmac. Both are excellent, young SR players who may develop into good or even great Abs, although I'd prefer Dmac at fullback. Until they are, I expect that players like TJP and, possibly, Dagg and Jordie will cover 10 in emergencies. I have faith in our coaches and they have had plenty of time to think about solutions for those emergencies; I'm sure they have thought about it thoroughly and have a plan.
@KiwiMurph I thought about adding Plummer, but didn't because I don't know what the reason was why he didn't make the U20s, not even the wider training camps late last year (while other 18 year-olds did). He wasn't injured. He may make the U20s next year though.
You can't tell an Anscombe from a Barrett at that level.
Honestly. Is Plummer, or Falcon a Dan Kirkpatrick or a Dan Carter? It's silly including them in any discussion at this stage.
The list I made of our no. 10s "production line" was only to show the potential there is in this position, from players in or approaching the AB fringes (Dmac & Mo'unga) ready to be looked at, trained and tested for higher honours (maybe via an apprenticeship), to players who may (or may not) develop so well that they could become AB prospects in some years (separating them from the players where you don't see that potential ... yet). I see U20s players who have performed well in their black jerseys (eg, Perofeta & Falcon) definitely as "players to watch", but you have misunderstood the reason for my list if you think I see all players on that list as future All Blacks. The younger and inexperienced the players, the more they will still need time, development, training and game time at Mitre 10 Cup & SR level before any conclusion can be drawn, although in case of Jordie it wasn't actually that much (and before people misunderstand me, no, not all of them are necessarily of the same level as Jordie ... yet). If you think it's silly to follow and discuss these players, that's fine with me. Then don't join the discussion about these players.
I think coaches are different. Boyd was at the Super 8 (or was it Top 4?) Schools finals last year; Scott Robertson was at the U19 tournament in Taupo; I'm sure it wasn't just for their entertainment. Other SR coaches probably were there as well. Similarly, I wouldn't be surprised if the AB coaches have already become (or be made) aware of a player like Aumua, and will be interested in how he continues his rugby development. Who knows, they may even watch footage of the NZU20s games, once the dust of the Lions tour has settled.
