Super Rugby 2024
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Anyone that missed the Reds vs Blues game last night would have missed out on one of the most impressive debuts at Super level ever. Tim Ryan aka 'the Junkyard Dog' had an absolute blinder.
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In all probability, six wins is going to be the mark to be assured of the finals. By that measure, the Canes, Blues, Brumbies and Chiefs are all already home and hosed.
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The Rebels currently sit on five wins, but have one of, if not the toughest run home. Blues and Chiefs at home, and Reds, Brumbies and Drua away. Feasible they could still miss out.
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Reds are currently on four wins, but have played much better rugby than that, with the Force, Waratahs and Rebels still to play, they should get at least six wins (Drua and Crusaders away the other two fixtures)
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Drua are also on four wins, but are far more interesting due to their inability to win away from home. For that reason, to get to six wins, they'd need to beat both the Reds and Rebels at home to get to six... admittedly quite doable, but certainly little margin for error if they can't win away (Brumbies, Force and Highlanders)
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Despite being straight-up rubbish of late, the Highlanders hold eighth with three wins to their name. Assuming they beat the Drua at home, they need to win 2/4 of their remaining fixtures (Moana, Blues and Canes away, Crusaders at home) so in other words, they need to beat Moana and the Crusaders to get to six wins.
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Moana are also on three wins. With games against the Chiefs and Canes likely losses, that leaves them needing to beat the Highlanders (in Tonga) and Waratahs at home, and the Crusaders away. Certainly not impossible, although unlikely.
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Crusaders are on two wins, so need to win four out of: Reds, Blues and Moana (Home) and Brumbies and Highlanders (Away). Not inconceivable, but to beat the Blues and Brumbies is an uphill battle in the context.
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Waratahs are on two wins, both against the Crusaders, but crucially have a decent run home. They're away to the Hurricanes this week, but then finish off with Brumbies (H), Force (A), Moana (A), Reds (H). If they can take the Brumbies at home, they might just get enough momentum to win all four of those.
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Force are on two wins, with their only saving grace being that they have 3/5 of their remaining games in Perth. They should lose to the Chiefs this week, however they'll back themselves against the Drua and Tahs (H). Would have them on four wins with Reds (A) and Brumbies (H) remaining.
That being said, I think the Rebels don't win another game (5 Wins), Reds win three (7 Wins), Drua get one win (5 Wins), Highlanders get two wins (5 Wins), Moana don't win another game (3 Wins), Crusaders get three wins (5 Wins), Waratahs get 3 wins (5 Wins), Force get 2 wins (4 Wins)... this is if I have done my maths right.
Would leave the Reds a clear 5th, and with five teams from 6-10th all on five wins, sending it to BPs, which probably sees the Rebels 6th, Crusaders 7th and Highlanders 8th.
Highlanders next two games though are massive in the context of the whole playoff race. If they win both, Moana and the Crusaders almost certainly out of it. If they lose both, they're out of it, and the final round-robin match between Moana and the Crusaders could be like a Round of 16 game (even though it is a 12-team comp lol)
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It also (somewhat) helps justify the decision to have an eight-team play off. If it were just four teams going through, they'd all but be decided by now and the last four or five rounds could be largely meaningless. As it stands, it's almost certain to go down to the final week (and then take a slight downwards turn in the quarters but there could still be an upset there).
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When looking at the table, points difference makes for interesting reading.
Crusaders may be poke this year, but points diff is a real outlier for that end of the table. Same said in opposite direction for the Brumbies. Reds clearly a much better team than their position too.
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@Tim said in Super Rugby 2024:
Liam Napier said on the Rugby Direct podcast that the Rebels are done, and next season will be an 11 team competition.
yeah, its pretty well accepted around melbourne rugby, only question marks are really around development pathways to replace theirs, we're hoping to at least see state youth teams and then the axemen/axewomen as a rep team
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@george33 that was announced ages ago.
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I guess the question is whether that is next year or not?
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@Canes4life yeah as far as I no it depends on the Rebels situation, might happen sooner than later
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@Machpants said in Super Rugby 2024:
Also get rid of the totally not super round
Don't get rid of it. Make it better. 2024 Super Round was good
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@KiwiMurph said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Machpants said in Super Rugby 2024:
Also get rid of the totally not super round
Don't get rid of it. Make it better. 2024 Super Round was good
Maybe Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan (run games a few weeks later to get better weather) on a three year cycle.
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@MajorRage what's the reason?
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Few things about that they are not taking the away games seriously and sending weakened teams.
Truth is that I think the game up here is similar to football in that the local games are attended by the same fans week in, week out which creates great rivalries. Then, the Champions cup (equivalent of Football champions league) is the same but brings in some European flair with passionate European fans.
The SA teams just don't fit this model as the history isn't there.
Be interested in @Dodge view here. I don't follow / watch rugby beneath intl level here, just been reading some commentaries.
