EPL 2022 / 2023
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@bayimports
I didn't include you in the relegation update because, as I thought three weeks ago, you have a comparatively easy run in. You have nine points from your last five games so sit on 33 with six games to go.Only one of those games is against a top 10 side. Southampton (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (H), Crystal Palace (A), Man Utd (H), Everton (A)
I reckon given the number of games between relegation contenders that 36 points will be the cut-off. If you do lose your next two games it will definitely be sphincter clenching, but I believe you've done enough already to stagger over the line.
Such a relief to be able to post on the relegation battle without skin in the game.
Everton are the one in big trouble. Been in the top tier all my life. Given their financial situation, relegation could be catastrophic for them.
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Bournemouth are safe!!!! Yes I'm calling it. 7 clear of the relegation zone and to be pulled into the bottom 3 they would need to lose their last 5 games and have 3 of the bottom 5 get 6 or 7 points in 5 games. Southampton must be goneburger now and Everton have won only 6 games all season - their game at Leicester is huge for both teams.
Meanwhile Newcastle look nailed on for top 4, and Spurs come back from 2-0 down for a vital point in the 5/6th place race.
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@KiwiPie said in EPL 2022 / 2023:
Bournemouth are safe!!!! Yes I'm calling it. 7 clear of the relegation zone and to be pulled into the bottom 3 they would need to lose their last 5 games and have 3 of the bottom 5 get 6 or 7 points in 5 games. Southampton must be goneburger now and Everton have won only 6 games all season - their game at Leicester is huge for both teams.
Meanwhile Newcastle look nailed on for top 4, and Spurs come back from 2-0 down for a vital point in the 5/6th place race.
Im with Gary ONeil and I dont think 36 is safe just yet, 37 on the other hand and I will be breathing easier. Currently 2 wins ahead of Leeds and Forest but goal difference thanks to Liverpool declaring 9 without loss on us earlier in the season puts us back the fight if we tie. One more point gives us that extra room. Any points from the Leeds fixture should put us in safety. Interestingly we are only one win away from Chelsea on the table...what a weird season.
Still very happy with the result!
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@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:
Leeds 16th - 30 points - 4 points from last 5 games Max 37 points
Bournemouth (A), Man City (A), Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H)Forest 17th 30 points - 3 points from last 5 games Away form dire Max 35 points
Brentford (A), Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Crystal Palace (A)Everton 18th - 28 points -6 points from last 6 games Max 35 points
Newcastle (H), Leicester (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Man City (H), Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H)Leicester 19th - 28 points - 4 points from last 5 games Max 33 points
Everton (H), Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H)Southampton 20th -24 points - 2 points from last 6 games - All but relegated
Bournemouth (H), Newcastle (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H),All of the above are poor sides.
I reckon Saints and Forest are doomed and then it's who is the least bad out of Leeds, Leicester and Everton.
FWIW I reckon Leicester will become the 2nd Premiership winning club to be relegated, but you can make an argument for anyone but Southampton surviving, or indeed Bournemouth / West Ham getting sucked back into the shit fight.
So my guess for bottom three from here, after thinking it through a bit more 33 is now enough to be safe
- Southampton - after this morning, a bit of a no brainer, Forest will use their match up to save themselves
- Leicester - match with Everton potentially helps decide Everton's fate but no further wins, game against West Ham will confirm or deny this, but assume West Ham too strong.
- Leeds - Im going a bit left field here. If Leeds dont beat Bournemouth this weekend then I don't see them winning again. I see Everton and Leeds in a head to head scrap for the drop. GON wants points this weekend and will fight all the way. I'm going to say Bournemouth win/draw at home (they do have a recent habit of tripping up on these home games though). My thoughts are Everton get lucky that their last two matches will be against teams with nothing to play for at this stage and will sneak points to pass Leeds.
Of course, Leeds will beat Bournemouth, Southampton will now beat Forest, Leicester will beat West Ham and a completely different two go down with the Saints, as this always happens with predictions lol
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Can I call it now @bayimports ????
Looking a lot like Southampton down and any 2 from 4 with West Ham still vulnerable.
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@KiwiPie yes... and significant relief, should allow us to retain Lerma now too. Start planning some further spending over the summer. If you said a two months ago, we would have the same points as Chelsea I don't think I would have believed it
I think Forest beat Southampton taking them past Leeds then it becomes a scrap between Leicester, Everton and Leeds with Everton the easier draw.
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Chelsea are absolute rubbish at the moment. Reminds me of when Kirwan coached the blues.
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At least lampard has Mme Bleakley for consolation.
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@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:
Meanwhile the madness continues. Leeds apparently set to appoint Big Sam as their fourth Manager of the season. With only four games left - Citeh, Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs
Have they even got a shot of saving themselves?
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@canefan
You'd have thought not but they are still in 17th . All three clubs behind them have similarly difficult draws with one massive exception. Southampton play Forest next. They need Saints to win that an then all the bottom three to keep losing. If that happens (not totally unrealistic) they don't need another point to stay up.29 points would have been enough two years ago so in theory....
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@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:
@canefan
You'd have thought not but they are still in 17th . All three clubs behind them have similarly difficult draws with one massive exception. Southampton play Forest next. They need Saints to win that an then all the bottom three to keep losing. If that happens (not totally unrealistic) they don't need another point to stay up.29 points would have been enough two years ago so in theory....
Big Sam is a master at keeping teams up, but they have left it pretty late
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@Bovidae said in EPL 2022 / 2023:
Arsenal did enough in the 1st half but once again poor defending by Zinchenko for the Chelsea goal.
@Bovidae said in EPL 2022 / 2023:
Arsenal did enough in the 1st half but once again poor defending by Zinchenko for the Chelsea goal.
I am struggling to see why they are persisting with him.
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@broughie said in EPL 2022 / 2023:
I am struggling to see why they are persisting with him.
He plays as an inverted fullback, which is an important role in Arteta's attacking system. In short, Zinchenko is used as an additional midfielder. He's not a great defender though, and is often out of position because of where he is on the field (central).
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@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:
@canefan
You'd have thought not but they are still in 17th . All three clubs behind them have similarly difficult draws with one massive exception. Southampton play Forest next. They need Saints to win that an then all the bottom three to keep losing. If that happens (not totally unrealistic) they don't need another point to stay up.29 points would have been enough two years ago so in theory....
Personally I think Leeds are done, maybe Big Sam can help earn them a couple of points and that could be enough..but talk about leaving it late, but looking at their next games, I can't see them winning any.
