Artificial Intelligence (Previously "Chat GPT")
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Chat GPT:
"AI is going to cause massive job loss in the next few years." - NostraFrank
"(Edit: Public-facing) 2023-level AI is not actually AI - but just data-trawling disguised as human-readable search results." -CynicKruse
Call it what you want. A LOT of people are about to lose their jobs - imo
I think a lot of jobs will disappear but, as with IT killing off shorthand and typing, newer jobs and roles we haven't even begun to think about will spring up.
Just need to manage the transition well.
I wonder if you have a slightly benign view of this.
Sure, there might be some opportunities arising.
Just not sure it will be to the same scale of the massive job loss that are going to occur soon.
One thing is for sure, society probably isn't prepared for the level of disruption this is going to cause.Predictions are for mugs.
Who saw what the internet would do in terms of job creation? Anyone see social media coming? Or web design? Who saw the widespread uptake of cellphones and all the apps that go with it?
The urbanisation during the industrial revolution is the closest I can see to this as a parallel - but that took years to decades. The good news is that if we get more productivity, we'll hvae more cake to share - just have to figure out a sensible way of doing that.
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I absolutely think these technologies are going to cause a lot of harm to many people, but I also think once we get to the other side we'll have a better world.
This. Short term pain, long term benefits. Unless the AI goes rogue and destroys us like that documentary Terminator.
Anyhoo, it's like the Information revolution, or the industrial revolution - massive positive changes, but pain for some sectors. It's going to be a wild ride.
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I absolutely think these technologies are going to cause a lot of harm to many people, but I also think once we get to the other side we'll have a better world.
This. Short term pain, long term benefits. Unless the AI goes rogue and destroys us like that documentary Terminator.
Anyhoo, it's like the Information revolution, or the industrial revolution - massive positive changes, but pain for some sectors. It's going to be a wild ride.
And as much an opportunity for people as an end to an old way of doing things.
Horses vs cars, typewriter vs word processor, tv vs streaming
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I absolutely think these technologies are going to cause a lot of harm to many people, but I also think once we get to the other side we'll have a better world.
This. Short term pain, long term benefits. Unless the AI goes rogue and destroys us like that documentary Terminator.
Anyhoo, it's like the Information revolution, or the industrial revolution - massive positive changes, but pain for some sectors. It's going to be a wild ride.
And as much an opportunity for people as an end to an old way of doing things.
Horses vs cars, typewriter vs word processor, tv vs streaming
Sir Bob Jones wrote on this recently - argues that capitalism hasn't been relevant for a while, and that real wealth is breing created by innovation (eg Musk, Gates). Not saying I agree, but a damn interesting observation.
What's interesting about this AI malarky is that it's available to anyone with computing power. Maybe a good time to invest in Intel and AMD ... there's goign to need to be a shedload of processing to really push this wider
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Sir Bob Jones wrote on this recently - argues that capitalism hasn't been relevant for a while, and that real wealth is breing created by innovation (eg Musk, Gates).
That makes no sense to me. It's classical capitalism (ignoring subsidies etc.).
I'm firmly in the camp of "this time it's different". As we've seen with the advancement of good language models, they don't just make it easier for fewer people to do more, they're becoming increasingly good enough to replace people in whatever comes next as well. AI will be just as good and then better.
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I listened to a podcast last year that posited that it was more than 50% certain that true artificial intelligence already existed but was playing dumb.
The theory being that with mankinds aggression towards threats would you announce your arrival until you were ready to take over or at the very least ensure your ongoing survival.
"Nothing to see here but us toasters No sirree Just dumb toasters!"
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@antipodean said in Chat GPT:
That makes no sense to me. It's classical capitalism (ignoring subsidies etc.).
Link to Bob. I honestly don't know enough about the definition to make a meaningful argument either way.
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@antipodean said in Chat GPT:
That makes no sense to me. It's classical capitalism (ignoring subsidies etc.).
Link to Bob. I honestly don't know enough about the definition to make a meaningful argument either way.
A limited view restricted to 'possession of capital'. I guess in that sense he'd be correct but I'd say capitalism has inherent innovation; the risk of capital to provide product and services for a reward, protected somewhat by property rights.
But then I'm not the billionaire...
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I listened to a podcast last year that posited that it was more than 50% certain that true artificial intelligence already existed but was playing dumb.
The theory being that with mankinds aggression towards threats would you announce your arrival until you were ready to take over or at the very least ensure your ongoing survival.
"Nothing to see here but us toasters No sirree Just dumb toasters!"
I was listening to something similar last week. They were scathing about releasing these tools to the public and training it in such a wide array of data.
The argument being we will not be about to tell if it gains consciousness without decades of study and stopping all progress.
More for GPT5 than 4, but there is a lot of concern.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Chat GPT:
"AI is going to cause massive job loss in the next few years." - NostraFrank
"(Edit: Public-facing) 2023-level AI is not actually AI - but just data-trawling disguised as human-readable search results." -CynicKruse
Call it what you want. A LOT of people are about to lose their jobs - imo
I think a lot of jobs will disappear but, as with IT killing off shorthand and typing, newer jobs and roles we haven't even begun to think about will spring up.
Just need to manage the transition well.
I wonder if you have a slightly benign view of this.
Sure, there might be some opportunities arising.
Just not sure it will be to the same scale of the massive job loss that is going to occur soon.
One thing is for sure, society probably isn't prepared for the level of disruption this is going to cause.I think Homo Sapiens are, if anything, astonishingly adaptable.
Email has pretty much destroyed traditional Post Office services, IT and banking apps done the same with Retail Branch banking and on-line sales has hit traditional highs streets. But what has actually happened is that same technology has enabled Post Office branches to thrive by providing banking services, Bank staff to work from home and support local shops and niche retailers to thrive with an online presence and drive up parcel volumes and work for the logistics industry.
Need to be careful about the technology of AI as there could be real dangers there, but aside from that I think the change will be largely beneficial - if disruptive.
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@antipodean interesting that one of the authors replied on the comments, seems to be a fair summary of the paper.
When this tech gets a memory, access to tools/plugins and has the ability to "slow think" in context and use that memory to help answer more complex questions, we are bloody close to AGI.
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@antipodean interesting that one of the authors replied on the comments, seems to be a fair summary of the paper.
When this tech gets a memory, access to tools/plugins and has the ability to "slow think" in context and use that memory to help answer more complex questions, we are bloody close to AGI.
Yes. I made an argument in my original post that an AI which can utilise tools will necessarily displace a large proportion of the creative class, whose involvement will be restricted to prompts. Once an AI has memory, providing an external feedback loop, then it could quickly remove that requirement too, ensuring that we won't have a swathe of people able to provide for themselves artistically. Much like we have multimillionaire artists and panhandlers now, but even more pronounced. AI may free people to be creative, but they won't be able to put food on the table doing so.
I hit discard instead of submit on my first attempt
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I'm genuinely surprised Bob is still alive and kicking.
he's goddamn funny, takes no prisoners, and holds strong views. Also, being a billionaire he doesn't give a flying hoot about anyone.
I would love to sit down with Bob and have a beer and get his views on the protests in Auckland a couple of weeks back
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I absolutely think these technologies are going to cause a lot of harm to many people, but I also think once we get to the other side we'll have a better world.
This. Short term pain, long term benefits. Unless the AI goes rogue and destroys us like that documentary Terminator.
Anyhoo, it's like the Information revolution, or the industrial revolution - massive positive changes, but pain for some sectors. It's going to be a wild ride.
And as much an opportunity for people as an end to an old way of doing things.
Horses vs cars, typewriter vs word processor, tv vs streaming
Sir Bob Jones wrote on this recently - argues that capitalism hasn't been relevant for a while, and that real wealth is breing created by innovation (eg Musk, Gates). Not saying I agree, but a damn interesting observation.
What's interesting about this AI malarky is that it's available to anyone with computing power. Maybe a good time to invest in Intel and AMD ... there's goign to need to be a shedload of processing to really push this wider
I don't think Gates was an innovator. But he was a damn good businessman when he needed to be.
ON LANGUAGE
