Rough tips and other bets...
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@sneakdefreak said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby Smart money is on Almandin and Humidor. Wouldn't surprise me to see Almandin win it again.
I will be a little surprised if Humidor goes the trip. I know he was awesome in Cox Plate but I don't know of 2 mile
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The Melbourne Cup is such a horrible punting race. I only have one rule, which has served me well over the years: never back a horse that has never run in Australia before.
Which rules out the likes of Red Cardinal and Rekindling, though I will be including them in multiples.
I like Marmelo. Good European form, definitely gets the distance, and a nice lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup. Drawn well with a good jockey aboard. Reckon it wins from Johannes Vermeer and Wall of Fire.
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@barbarian said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The Melbourne Cup is such a horrible punting race. I only have one rule, which has served me well over the years: never back a horse that has never run in Australia before.
Which rules out the likes of Red Cardinal and Rekindling, though I will be including them in multiples.
I like Marmelo. Good European form, definitely gets the distance, and a nice lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup. Drawn well with a good jockey aboard. Reckon it wins from Johannes Vermeer and Wall of Fire.
Red Cardinbal has run in Australia hasn't it? Wasn't he in last years cup?
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@barbarian said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Red Cardinbal has run in Australia hasn't it? Wasn't he in last years cup?
No he's never run in Oz.
yeah just looked and confirmed he hasn't. First first (and 2nd) up record is very good though. Also unbeaten at this distance
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@jk said in Rough tips and other bets...:
yeah just looked and confirmed he hasn't. First first (and 2nd) up record is very good though. Also unbeaten at this distance
He could be amazing, and win the thing by 6 lengths. But the fact is that no horse has ever won the Melbourne Cup without a run in Australia beforehand. Now obviously that streak will probably end soon, but I steer clear because history suggests you just don't know how well a horse will respond to Aussie conditions.
And it's worth noting more than a few horses have run 2nd and 3rd in their first Aussie run, so my rule doesn't exclude them from trifectas etc.
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@barbarian said in Rough tips and other bets...:
He could be amazing, and win the thing by 6 lengths. But the fact is that no horse has ever won the Melbourne Cup without a run in Australia beforehand. Now obviously that streak will probably end soon, but I steer clear because history suggests you just don't know how well a horse will respond to Aussie conditions.
Well... records are made to be broken, I suppose. Rekindling had a beautiful run, was the winner about 300 out.
Marmelo just took off way too early, think it probably settled a bit too far forward.
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I got rekindling in the office sweepstake so also put some $$$ on it at tab to place only and got just under $6 for a place...
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@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
I got rekindling in the office sweepstake so also put some $$$ on it at tab to place only and got just under $6 for a place...
Got it in the sweep stake too.
Backed it early to win at $12. The tote would have been much nicer
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Always like having look at what the jockeys said post race re their rides
https://www.punters.com.au/news/what-the-jockeys-said-2017-melbourne-cup_163802/
Couple of interesting ones....
Blake Shinn - Humidor (19th): "He just doesn't run two miles (3200m), it's as simple as that. He gave me a nice ride throughout but when the pressure went on he didn't respond."
Frankie Dettori - Almandin (12th): "I was stuck three-wide but the horse was flat. He never carried me today and ran like a flat horse."
Hugh Bowman - Marmelo (9th): "I expected a bit more. I had to make a little bit of use of him early but I had a nice position and he relaxed well. The pressure built a bit earlier than I would've liked I must admit but I thought he would've taken me a bit further."
