Rough tips and other bets...
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Got stacks of bonus bets so have put a $68bb on Probabeel, Te Akau Shark and Catalyst all to win their respective group 1 races tomorrow. All take place over a period of about 40mins around 6pm.
Pays over $2k. Equally likely of all 3 missing but hell we gotta ride our kiwi horses home!
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Just asked the lads at the tab and they’ve added a promo for any 2 of them to win at $6. Not bad considering effective odds based on current prices would be $2.50 to $4.50 depending on the potential outcomes.
https://www.tab.co.nz/sports/competition/6801/thoroughbred-specials/outrights
First call special
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The inaugural Saudi Cup goes this weekend. Mile and 1/8th (1800m), on the dirt in Riyadh.
Eye-popping USD $20-million purse, richest race in the world it’s got an excellent field with the top American horses making the trip.
I’d like to see MAXIMUM SECURITY, the disqualified winner from last year’s Kentucky Derby win it. He’s the current fave (11-4).
Brit entry BENBATL (7-1), who came 2nd in the last of Winx’s Cox Plates (2018), could loom and should be close, but I don’t know what his record on dirt is. (Anybody? I see a lone win on an “all-weather” track at Meyden in his only start on the surface.)
I really only know the American entrants, and they are all fairly strong, it’s wide open.
Besides Maximum Security, I like the U.S. champion mare MIDNIGHT BISOU at a delicious 10-1. I wonder about the consistency of MUCHO GUSTO (7-1), McKINZIE (7-2) who both won prestigious races this year (the Pegasus and the Whitney) yet they’ve always lost when I backed ‘em; and TACITUS the handsome grey who always places in the biggest races after getting himself in trouble almost every trip, is at a mouth-watering 20-1. Any one of them could win. The first four of those Americans are drawn together in a pack in gates 6-7-8-and-9.
There’s also an undefeated Japanese horse CHRYSOBERYL (11-1) that I know nothing about except that Japanese racing is super-strong right now.
Frankie Dettori is aboard GRONKOWSKI at 33-1.
MAGIC WAND, who has been flying ‘round the world and regularly placing — defeated Melody Belle in November’s McKinnon Stakes at Flemington, is sitting at 40-1. Has placed on dirt in G1 in the States, so might be a factor.
Fourteen horses in total. I know jack about the rest.
My fave jockey in the world IRAD ORTIZ JR. stays on Mucho Gusto, and if there’s one jockey I’d put money on to carry a horse across the finish-line it would be him. He’s killed me so many times saddled on horses that had no business being anywhere near a winners circle, so being aboard an excellent one I’d be foolish to leave him out of my exotics.
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Apparently Mr Pickles who we used to own is going to go well first up at Awapuni Race 2 tomorrow.
Is said to be thriving on the beach. He used to hate the track and threw off a lot of track work riders when we had him and so we gave him to them to see if he liked the beach. First week in training he biffed the rider and ran all the way to Foxton!!!!
Anyway treat with care as he showed us a bit but could never perform
Well I was right! He is still hopeless. Obviously trains like tarzan etc etc.
Thank goodness we didn't hang on to him
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nothing like escaping to the pub for lunch and jagging a winner at $13s while you are sitting there
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@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The inaugural Saudi Cup goes this weekend. Mile and 1/8th (1800m), on the dirt in Riyadh.
Correction on the purse, I short-changed it almost $800K.
Fourteen horses in total. I know jack about the rest.
I don’t know strength of racing in Riyadh, but the race features a Irish-bred local star MIJACK (60-1) who has won five in a row at King Abdulaziz Racecourse. Punters clearly not rating those wins.
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@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Need You Now lines up in the Group 1 Northern Oaks in R7 at Alex Park tomorrow night. She's drawn the outside in an 8-horse field but it's not the strongest Oaks field you'll ever see. The piping hot fave Amazing Dream has drawn well so NYN will be a bit reliant on others putting pressure on AD for much of the 2700m if she's to swoop late. Still, nice to have a filly in a 3YO classic. She's 2nd/3rd fave so maybe go heavy on the place bet.
Some Do is an each way chance as always in R2 although the field is a bit stronger than it looks at first glance.
Some Do was never put into the race thanks to an extremely passive drive from Zac Butcher.
Need You Now loomed on the turn after a pretty good run in transit but missed 3rd by a nose hair.
All in all, a very frustrating evening.
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@mariner4life said in The future of NZ Super Rugby teams & the NPC:
@taniwharugby said in The future of NZ Super Rugby teams & the NPC:
@mariner4life speaking of blinkers...any good tops?
I do my best work late. Doing the form is overrated
Yea I got a $13 winner last night, it was moving down so I nabbed it.
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Salacious Crumbreplied to Salacious Crumb on 29 Feb 2020, 00:33 last edited by Salacious Crumb 29 Feb 2020, 00:35
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
I was reading this morning that jockeys Frankie Dettori (Gronkowski) and Ryan Moore (Magic Wand) were having trouble getting into Saudi Arabia from U.K. because of the Covid-19, the Saudi border is closed, but also heard the House of Saud princes were trying to get some sort of royal decree to permit them entry. Have since heard that Moore can’t make it. Waiting to hear update about Frankie...
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5 bets, 5 2nds, thank fuck for money back
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Fucking Pohutakawa owes me so much money
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Alligator Blood is a ripper
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@mariner4life Yeah - Catalyst loomed up at the turn, but probably worked too hard to get there.
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@Chris-B said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life Yeah - Catalyst loomed up at the turn, but probably worked too hard to get there.
I don't think the trip in transit was the issue at all. He landed a lovely spot and only got up 3-4 wide 400m out. He was pulling too much in the running & it almost looked like he was on the wrong leg in the straight. I was a little concerned how toey he seemed to be behind the barriers before the race, so maybe he just had a bad hair day.
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@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Chris-B said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life Yeah - Catalyst loomed up at the turn, but probably worked too hard to get there.
I don't think the trip in transit was the issue at all. He landed a lovely spot and only got up 3-4 wide 400m out. He was pulling too much in the running & it almost looked like he was on the wrong leg in the straight. I was a little concerned how toey he seemed to be behind the barriers before the race, so maybe he just had a bad hair day.
He was in the right spot, just didn't kick on when it was time.
I've had a shit day. Probabeel my only winner
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@mariner4life I had a tidy winner early in the day, but rest was rubbish.
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@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Chris-B said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life Yeah - Catalyst loomed up at the turn, but probably worked too hard to get there.
I don't think the trip in transit was the issue at all. He landed a lovely spot and only got up 3-4 wide 400m out. He was pulling too much in the running & it almost looked like he was on the wrong leg in the straight. I was a little concerned how toey he seemed to be behind the barriers before the race, so maybe he just had a bad hair day.
He was in the right spot, just didn't kick on when it was time.
I've had a shit day. Probabeel my only winner
I've got a hunch that my whole betting career - past and future - is going to be redeemed in about 24 minutes!
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@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Chris-B said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life Yeah - Catalyst loomed up at the turn, but probably worked too hard to get there.
I don't think the trip in transit was the issue at all. He landed a lovely spot and only got up 3-4 wide 400m out. He was pulling too much in the running & it almost looked like he was on the wrong leg in the straight. I was a little concerned how toey he seemed to be behind the barriers before the race, so maybe he just had a bad hair day.
Was disappointing that’s for sure. A couple of trainers I talked to a while back said when they took horses over they seem to go better first up and flat second.
How good were the Te akau two tho. Just awesome
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@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Just asked the lads at the tab and they’ve added a promo for any 2 of them to win at $6. Not bad considering effective odds based on current prices would be $2.50 to $4.50 depending on the potential outcomes.
https://www.tab.co.nz/sports/competition/6801/thoroughbred-specials/outrights
First call special
Great value
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@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Chris-B said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life Yeah - Catalyst loomed up at the turn, but probably worked too hard to get there.
I don't think the trip in transit was the issue at all. He landed a lovely spot and only got up 3-4 wide 400m out. He was pulling too much in the running & it almost looked like he was on the wrong leg in the straight. I was a little concerned how toey he seemed to be behind the barriers before the race, so maybe he just had a bad hair day.
Was disappointing that’s for sure. A couple of trainers I talked to a while back said when they took horses over they seem to go better first up and flat second.
How good were the Te akau two tho. Just awesome
The Shark was cooked, but that finish...
Randwick was fair as fuck today, I hate that
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@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Alligator Blood is a ripper
Can’t stay alive at 6/5.
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Salacious Crumbreplied to JK on 29 Feb 2020, 15:04 last edited by Salacious Crumb 29 Feb 2020, 15:23
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
How good were the Te akau two tho. Just awesome
I thought the Shark was cooked, too. Great finish. Terrific horse.
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I have to jump into this Saudi card. In addition to the $20M main event there’s seven other million dollar races. Race 1 went to a 44-1 shot; Race 2 went to a 28-1; and Race 3 had a Superfecta payout of $117K. Race 4 comin’ up... this is Powerball fever...
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Thirty minutes away from the richest horse race that has ever been run...
The $1.5M sprint championship just finished, and it was one of the most amazing finishes I’ve seen in a while. They haven’t shown the replay, sadly. I think punters were ripping their tickets with a half-furlong to go, the Japanese champ was ten lengths clear. Irad Ortiz Jr just pulled another golden horseshoe out of his ass, a 10-1 shot I made sure to include in my double.
Update: That Sprint race really needs to be seen to be believed.
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MAXIMUM SECURITY is a beast. Takes out the Cup. Spellbinding finish. $10-million 1st prize for a horse that started it’s career as a $16,000 claimer. Incredible.
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@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Thirty minutes away from the richest horse race that has ever been run...
The $1.5M sprint championship just finished, and it was one of the most amazing finishes I’ve seen in a while. They haven’t shown the replay, sadly. I think punters were ripping their tickets with a half-furlong to go, the Japanese champ was ten lengths clear. Irad Ortiz Jr just pulled another golden horseshoe out of his ass, a 10-1 shot I made sure to include in my double.
Update: That Sprint race really needs to be seen to be believed.
It's like I'm watching Chataqua!
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How good was the racing on Saturday?
The Derby was won by a true stayer, Alligator Blood was incredible, Te Akau Shark can not win from back there, does Opie think he's on Winx? Probabeel stunning too.
Huge day on the punt for a change as I have been a bit hopeless.
Mickey tipped us London Banker too so that put a big bow around the New Zealand racing for the day.
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Mate it was awesome!
AB is a beast of a horse that just keeps arising to the challenge
Im still fizzing at that te akau double. I was away for the weekend with a few lads who arent in to their racing but I explained to them about the 3 group 1 races on and how our kiwi horses were gonna represent.
Told them both exactly how probabeel and shark would win by screaming home and flying over the top of them. We cheered them home hard!
Was a shame Catalyst didnt really feature at all in the Guineas though, blinkers may have been a different story and surely must go on for the all star mile.
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Cant get enough of this. HUGE result for NZ racing
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
How good was the racing on Saturday?
The Derby was won by a true stayer, Alligator Blood was incredible, Te Akau Shark can not win from back there, does Opie think he's on Winx? Probabeel stunning too.
Huge day on the punt for a change as I have been a bit hopeless.
Mickey tipped us London Banker too so that put a big bow around the New Zealand racing for the day.
great racing, but not profitable racing...
i just read Alligator Blood cost $55,000....
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@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
How good was the racing on Saturday?
The Derby was won by a true stayer, Alligator Blood was incredible, Te Akau Shark can not win from back there, does Opie think he's on Winx? Probabeel stunning too.
Huge day on the punt for a change as I have been a bit hopeless.
Mickey tipped us London Banker too so that put a big bow around the New Zealand racing for the day.
great racing, but not profitable racing...
i just read Alligator Blood cost $55,000....
Jennifer Eccles cost $4,000! They are my favourtie stories!. We got the half sister to Escudo for chicken sh*t in Jan and she is filling out beautifully. (Was tempted to pay up for Karaka Millions) We will pay up for Pearl Series though.
Now we wait to see if she is as good as the rest of the family! Hope to be telling a great story.
We will break her in as a yearling as she looks as though she may make a two year old.
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Jennifer Eccles cost $4,000! They are my favourtie stories!.
They are the best stories. As above, Maximum Security just won the richest race ever, and two years ago was available for $16K.
His sire had a piss-poor breeding record, and he had “unspecified physical problems” as a foal, so his owners and trainers didn’t rate him. They certainly never entertained the fanciful idea of entering him in Stakes races. So they entered him into a $16,000 claimer, like they would any plonker hoping to sell him, meaning anybody with 16K could have put in a claim and owned him.
Nobody did.
Horse only went out on his debut in that claimer and won by 9-3/4 lengths. He was so dominant breaking his maiden his trainer figured wtf, let’s put him in the Florida Derby. He won, and got automatic entry into the Kentucky Derby. Rest. Is. History.
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Salacious Crumbreplied to mariner4life on 2 Mar 2020, 04:05 last edited by Salacious Crumb 2 Mar 2020, 04:08
@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
It's like I'm watching Chataqua!
I am bedazzled by this New York Central finish in the Saudi Sprint, and have now watched it at least a dozen times. The proverbial ”finding a different gear” and “coming from the clouds to win.”
One detail is transfixing me, and I’m hoping somebody who knows more about the sport can explain to me. What is going on here...?
Focus on the winner, the grey with red silks. Ortiz comes off the rail and edges out sharply to about four wide at the top of the straight. He gives the grey three hard whacks to straighten him out and get going. Somewhere in his momentum the grey seems to get spooked — is it another horse? Crowd noise? Ortiz giving him the stirrups or whispering in his ear?? He’s about 10 to 15 lengths back.
At the 51st/52-sec mark and for the next two seconds the horse throws his head up side-to-side back-and-forth then seems to stumble lose stride and misstep, then recovers and comes out of it exploding with an entirely different galloping stride. Check the hooves before and after he throws his head. Is the jockey trying to get him to change stride? Is the horse fighting the jockey? I thought for a second Ortiz might lose control, but looked mostly unfazed. Whatever happened there, at that point he wasn’t in the race but caught lightning.
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Went back and watched Chataqua winning. the 2016 TJ Smith is great, around the whole field
but the 2017 version is something else. At the 300 he's gone. At the 200 he has no chance. Then..
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Solomon in Race 2 Riccarton today. 6 horse field and I think he is the only one in that field to have run a sub 1:10 on that course. Track is a good 3 which is perfect for him and he's paying $5. I think that is reasonable value.
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Solomon in Race 2 Riccarton today. 6 horse field and I think he is the only one in that field to have run a sub 1:10 on that course. Track is a good 3 which is perfect for him and he's paying $5. I think that is reasonable value.
and we were able to keep Jasmine on
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OOps! Favourite has run a quicker time than Solsy at Riccarton. My Bad
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Bonus bets back to 4th for ya for first $30 too
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@JK they have started the try-scoring one like they did in the RWC again too (may have been doing it, but today is first time I saw it)
Bet of $30 or more for anyone to score a try, and get $5 BB for every try scored in match...although this week unsure any will be try-fests.
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