Rough tips and other bets...
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@Hooroo was $10/$2.50 when I looked last night.
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@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo was $10/$2.50 when I looked last night.
2 scratchings. Real opening price is $7
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Got stacks of bonus bets so have put a $68bb on Probabeel, Te Akau Shark and Catalyst all to win their respective group 1 races tomorrow. All take place over a period of about 40mins around 6pm.
Pays over $2k. Equally likely of all 3 missing but hell we gotta ride our kiwi horses home!
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Just asked the lads at the tab and they’ve added a promo for any 2 of them to win at $6. Not bad considering effective odds based on current prices would be $2.50 to $4.50 depending on the potential outcomes.
https://www.tab.co.nz/sports/competition/6801/thoroughbred-specials/outrights
First call special
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The inaugural Saudi Cup goes this weekend. Mile and 1/8th (1800m), on the dirt in Riyadh.
Eye-popping USD $20-million purse, richest race in the world it’s got an excellent field with the top American horses making the trip.
I’d like to see MAXIMUM SECURITY, the disqualified winner from last year’s Kentucky Derby win it. He’s the current fave (11-4).
Brit entry BENBATL (7-1), who came 2nd in the last of Winx’s Cox Plates (2018), could loom and should be close, but I don’t know what his record on dirt is. (Anybody? I see a lone win on an “all-weather” track at Meyden in his only start on the surface.)
I really only know the American entrants, and they are all fairly strong, it’s wide open.
Besides Maximum Security, I like the U.S. champion mare MIDNIGHT BISOU at a delicious 10-1. I wonder about the consistency of MUCHO GUSTO (7-1), McKINZIE (7-2) who both won prestigious races this year (the Pegasus and the Whitney) yet they’ve always lost when I backed ‘em; and TACITUS the handsome grey who always places in the biggest races after getting himself in trouble almost every trip, is at a mouth-watering 20-1. Any one of them could win. The first four of those Americans are drawn together in a pack in gates 6-7-8-and-9.
There’s also an undefeated Japanese horse CHRYSOBERYL (11-1) that I know nothing about except that Japanese racing is super-strong right now.
Frankie Dettori is aboard GRONKOWSKI at 33-1.
MAGIC WAND, who has been flying ‘round the world and regularly placing — defeated Melody Belle in November’s McKinnon Stakes at Flemington, is sitting at 40-1. Has placed on dirt in G1 in the States, so might be a factor.
Fourteen horses in total. I know jack about the rest.
My fave jockey in the world IRAD ORTIZ JR. stays on Mucho Gusto, and if there’s one jockey I’d put money on to carry a horse across the finish-line it would be him. He’s killed me so many times saddled on horses that had no business being anywhere near a winners circle, so being aboard an excellent one I’d be foolish to leave him out of my exotics.
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Apparently Mr Pickles who we used to own is going to go well first up at Awapuni Race 2 tomorrow.
Is said to be thriving on the beach. He used to hate the track and threw off a lot of track work riders when we had him and so we gave him to them to see if he liked the beach. First week in training he biffed the rider and ran all the way to Foxton!!!!
Anyway treat with care as he showed us a bit but could never perform
Well I was right! He is still hopeless. Obviously trains like tarzan etc etc.
Thank goodness we didn't hang on to him
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nothing like escaping to the pub for lunch and jagging a winner at $13s while you are sitting there
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@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The inaugural Saudi Cup goes this weekend. Mile and 1/8th (1800m), on the dirt in Riyadh.
Correction on the purse, I short-changed it almost $800K.
Fourteen horses in total. I know jack about the rest.
I don’t know strength of racing in Riyadh, but the race features a Irish-bred local star MIJACK (60-1) who has won five in a row at King Abdulaziz Racecourse. Punters clearly not rating those wins.
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@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Need You Now lines up in the Group 1 Northern Oaks in R7 at Alex Park tomorrow night. She's drawn the outside in an 8-horse field but it's not the strongest Oaks field you'll ever see. The piping hot fave Amazing Dream has drawn well so NYN will be a bit reliant on others putting pressure on AD for much of the 2700m if she's to swoop late. Still, nice to have a filly in a 3YO classic. She's 2nd/3rd fave so maybe go heavy on the place bet.
Some Do is an each way chance as always in R2 although the field is a bit stronger than it looks at first glance.
Some Do was never put into the race thanks to an extremely passive drive from Zac Butcher.
Need You Now loomed on the turn after a pretty good run in transit but missed 3rd by a nose hair.
All in all, a very frustrating evening.
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@mariner4life said in The future of NZ Super Rugby teams & the NPC:
@taniwharugby said in The future of NZ Super Rugby teams & the NPC:
@mariner4life speaking of blinkers...any good tops?
I do my best work late. Doing the form is overrated
Yea I got a $13 winner last night, it was moving down so I nabbed it.
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@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
I was reading this morning that jockeys Frankie Dettori (Gronkowski) and Ryan Moore (Magic Wand) were having trouble getting into Saudi Arabia from U.K. because of the Covid-19, the Saudi border is closed, but also heard the House of Saud princes were trying to get some sort of royal decree to permit them entry. Have since heard that Moore can’t make it. Waiting to hear update about Frankie...
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5 bets, 5 2nds, thank fuck for money back
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Fucking Pohutakawa owes me so much money
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Alligator Blood is a ripper
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@mariner4life Yeah - Catalyst loomed up at the turn, but probably worked too hard to get there.
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@Chris-B said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life Yeah - Catalyst loomed up at the turn, but probably worked too hard to get there.
I don't think the trip in transit was the issue at all. He landed a lovely spot and only got up 3-4 wide 400m out. He was pulling too much in the running & it almost looked like he was on the wrong leg in the straight. I was a little concerned how toey he seemed to be behind the barriers before the race, so maybe he just had a bad hair day.
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@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Chris-B said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life Yeah - Catalyst loomed up at the turn, but probably worked too hard to get there.
I don't think the trip in transit was the issue at all. He landed a lovely spot and only got up 3-4 wide 400m out. He was pulling too much in the running & it almost looked like he was on the wrong leg in the straight. I was a little concerned how toey he seemed to be behind the barriers before the race, so maybe he just had a bad hair day.
He was in the right spot, just didn't kick on when it was time.
I've had a shit day. Probabeel my only winner
