Crusaders v Rebels
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@Steven-Harris On current form, it's hard to see the Chiefs not getting five points against the Rebels. If they do that, they need some pretty bad luck in the other games to miss out.
Reasonable likelihood of all three NZ teams being on the same side of the draw, which probably softens the Crusaders home advantage by taking out the travel factor.
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@Steven-Harris They will need the big unit if they are going to upset the Crusaders.
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@Canes4life Franks and Taylor also back for QF
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@NTA said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@Steven-Harris said in Crusaders v Rebels:
Well said from the commentators, you would think after 8 years we have moved on from booing Quade Cooper..seriously people..!
You clearly know nothing about
NZ 😉CantabriansPlease don't lump us all in the same boat, most Wellingtonians won't even attend a game til they sort out the Craft Beer situation at the Cake Tin.
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@Chris-B said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@nzzp said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@Chris-B said in Crusaders v Rebels:
Nice work, Razor - needs to be a bit careful with the bye week, that can work against you, but taking plenty of momentum into it.
Any handle on who might be heading to Christchurch? Or too congested to tell yet?
A quick bit of analysis this morning. The crucial first tiebreaker is the team with the most wins - which hurts those with lots of draws - especially the Highlanders.
https://www.superxv.com/super-rugby/super-rugby-rules/
According to me:
Crusaders, Jaguares, Brumbies and Hurricanes are safely in the eight.The Bulls are effectively safe - to miss out it will take a combination of them getting thumped by the Lions, the Rebels beating the Chiefs and The Sharks beating the Stormers, but allowing the Stormers a losing bonus point.
The Highlanders, Waratahs, Blues, Reds and Sunwolves are all gone.
So five teams fighting for three spots - and four of them are playing one another.
Simple equation for all of the Lions, Stormers, Rebels and Sharks - you win and you're in.
Lions and Stormers will probably make it with a bonus point loss. They can possibly sneak in without, if results go their way.
Chiefs need to win and likely need a bonus point - or at least to deny the Rebels one and hope the Stormers beat the Sharks. They could potentially miss out on points differential even with a bonus point win if the Sharks win and the Stormers get a bonus point and the Lions get at least a point.
So pretty straightforward then
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@booboo yeah - there's a few caveats, but I reckon it will probably be pretty straightforward for those five teams:
If you win you're in and there will possibly be one lucky loser, who is most likely the Lions.
It's only the Chiefs that don't fully have their top 8 fate in their own hands.
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Ennor should be on the plane to japan. Big strong fast with a good rugby brain and covers at least 11,13,14. See you later naholo.
Havili’s best game of the season.
Rubbish rebels defence though.
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In replace of who though? Man we have some talent in NZ atm.
My backs atm are: Smith, Perenara, Hall, Barrett, Mo'unga, Leinert-Brown, Laumape, Goodhue, Crotty, Ioane, Bridge, Barrett, Smith, assuming they go with 13 backs - add in Ennor if they take 14.
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@Stargazer That one less win is an absolute killer for them because in any tie they lose out.
I thought there wasn't a combination of results that would let them make the eight, but looking again it seems like they still have a mathematical chance.
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@Canes4life I reckon Weber instead of Hall. He's been outstanding in recent weeks.
I'm expecting SBW instead of Laumape.
They should take 14 backs, but I'd be taking Josh Ioane rather than another outside back. However, if they only take two first fives, Ennor is a good shot - probably marginally ahead of Reece, with Will Jordan unlucky that he hasn't had the chance to press his case.
Possible that Ennor could also push out George Bridge by dint of being a right wing.
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@Chris-B it's harsh on Laumape because he has been brutally consistent all season and would probably give us more impact over an ageing SBW.
If it comes down to the two I would say Bridge gets the nod, purely from the fact he can cover all three backfield positions. I don't see a need for Ennor if we already have four midfielders.
