Exodus 2018
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Here's another one from Paul Cully about the same topic but from a different angle.
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Interesting article with the factual statements of the agents. Have to say, I’m surprised at their assessment of the European market, particularly the English Premiership and the continuing losses for most of the clubs. They seem to think that the current flow will continue.
I’ve read comments on here before that in some respects, the annual exodus is almost useful in the necessary culling of the herd.
And yet, and yet. The agents seem to take no account of the reduction of foreign players in the Top14, the overinflated and unsustainable salaries (as stated by the clubs) in the Premiership, and the moves by the PRO14 unions to invest heavily in their academies and reduce imports. The Premiership clubs are now following suit.
4-5 years ago, there were about 18-20 foreign-capped players playing in Ireland. This season, there are 7 players - 3 each from SA & Aus, and 1 from Fiji. Overall, the number of SANZAAR born players has dropped from 50 to 29 and those include people like Carbery, and others with parents/grandparents.
There was an article recently in Herald or Stuff about whether the NZ government should financially support the All,Blacks or give them a tax break. It said it was the number 1 reason that players stayed in Ireland (not true) and could something similar be introduced in NZ. I think this has merit.
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@derm-mccrum These articles from Paul Cully are only about (fringe) ABs, not about the Super Rugby players who've given up on becoming ABs and are going for the big bucks in Europe and - if eligible - maybe want to try getting selected for Fiji, Samoa, Tonga or other countries. It would have been interesting to find out from these agents whether they notice or expect any change in the signing of these non-NZ capped players.
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@stargazer said in Exodus 2018:
@derm-mccrum These articles from Paul Cully are only about (fringe) ABs, not about the Super Rugby players who've given up on becoming ABs and are going for the big bucks in Europe and - if eligible - maybe want to try getting selected for Fiji, Samoa, Tonga or other countries. It would have been interesting to find out from these agents whether they notice or expect any change in the signing of these non-NZ capped players.
I know of a guy who was on the fringe of super selection, who now makes a good living plying his trade in the NH. Never going to be ABs quality but the type of guy who helps keep the ITM cup competitive. I'm not sure how much of an impact losing ITM players is because we seem to have plenty coming up to take their place
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@canefan M10 Cup...
I dont like seeing players head north as it erodes our depth and some of the next generation of kids need these older heads to help guide them as they work thier way to the top.
That said, I think the last couple of seasons of NPC have been good with a number of talented players coming through (although are still some gaps, as there always are) and others cutting thier teeth.
You'd have to think at some point the continual exodus' post RWC will hurt us and we may not recover.
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@stargazer said in Exodus 2018:
@derm-mccrum These articles from Paul Cully are only about (fringe) ABs, not about the Super Rugby players who've given up on becoming ABs and are going for the big bucks in Europe and - if eligible - maybe want to try getting selected for Fiji, Samoa, Tonga or other countries. It would have been interesting to find out from these agents whether they notice or expect any change in the signing of these non-NZ capped players.
The first article has this quote from an agent:
“I don't think it's cooled at the top end for your current All Blacks or starting Super Rugby players. There's certainly pressure there from the RFU around driving clubs to have more English qualified players but you've got to mindful that it's a World Cup next year so there will be a large number of southern hemisphere internationals or fringe internationals who are looking at their options."
In practical terms that means some current All Blacks are likely to leave after the next World Cup.“
And yes I agree about your query on uncapped NZ players. Those numbers have dropped too in Ireland and even more so since a) five year rule introduced and b) IQ rugby has focussed mainly on England for already qualified players. Last season, there were 12 SA-born players, 18 NZ and 3 Aus and 3 Eng. Now there’s 11 SA, 11 England, 11 NZ and 7 Aus. That’s partly influenced presumably by the nationality of the provincial coaches - Irish, English, Australian and South African.
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@taniwharugby said in Exodus 2018:
@canefan M10 Cup...
I dont like seeing players head north as it erodes our depth and some of the next generation of kids need these older heads to help guide them as they work thier way to the top.
That said, I think the last couple of seasons of NPC have been good with a number of talented players coming through (although are still some gaps, as there always are) and others cutting thier teeth.
You'd have to think at some point the continual exodus' post RWC will hurt us and we may not recover.
It would be interesting to see figures on the exodus from Super and ITM level
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@cgrant Yeah SA counts as European for international limits in some tournaments (Cotonou Agreement), so you can see Kiwi's dropped but Boks and PI galore. Tie that with an economy/rand in the doldrums, and the political mess there - I'd be moving too!
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@machpants said in Exodus 2018:
@cgrant Yeah SA counts as European for international limits in some tournaments (Cotonou Agreement), so you can see Kiwi's dropped but Boks and PI galore. Tie that with an economy/rand in the doldrums, and the political mess there - I'd be moving too!
Heads up ... not much better here in the UK!!
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@derm-mccrum said in Exodus 2018:
Interesting article with the factual statements of the agents. Have to say, I’m surprised at their assessment of the European market, particularly the English Premiership and the continuing losses for most of the clubs. They seem to think that the current flow will continue.
Looking at the Financials release for the last year and few article in UK press. I think Worcester will go bust, or need to be sold (with debts written off). e.g. rescued.
I think the rest will be OK, and spending levels will stay near the same. Some others are under some pressure though; Harlequins, Newcastle, Wasps, Saracens. But mostly due to debt rather than due to turnover v expenses. If the debt doesn't need to be repaid (sugar daddies), and/or borrowing costs remain extremely low for the foreseeable future (incredible low global interest rates). Then it's steady as she goes for the forseeable future that these player agents quoted in the article need to be concerned about.
So, I'd say they're ok. As long as French Top 14 spending doesn't put too much pressure on - so that the Premiership salary cap gets raised. In which case the weaker half of the league (Newcastle etc will feel the squeeze).
- Disclaimer. I have no particular financial expertise.
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@rapido said in Exodus 2018:
Disclaimer. I have no particular financial expertise.
Neither it appears, do some of the people running these clubs.
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The Top 14 richest club is now Stade Français. Their annual budget for the 2018-2019 season is around 36 000 000 Euros (63 360 000 NZD). Luckily, their manager is Heyneke Meyer so I guess he will build his team with a lot of South Africans rather than New Zealanders.
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apparently Fekitoa not enjoying his time in France and looking at returning for a tilt at the RWC...
Barring a career ending injury to someone, I cant see any new mid-fielders being added to the current equation, even then he would probably still struggle with others who have stepped up in his absence.
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@cgrant said in Exodus 2018:
The Top 14 richest club is now Stade Français. Their annual budget for the 2018-2019 season is around 36 000 000 Euros (63 360 000 NZD). Luckily, their manager is Heyneke Meyer so I guess he will build his team with a lot of South Africans rather than New Zealanders.
I wonder how that works.
A €34m budget in a league with a €11.3m salary cap?
List of Budgets:
Top 14 budgets for 2018/19 revealed - reports
Multiple reports have emerged in the French media today highlighting the budgets of the Top 14 clubs for the 2018/19 season.
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@machpants I'm probably wrong, but to me the 'tone' of the article suggests it is thier player salaries they are talking about rather than overall expenditure.
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@taniwharugby said in Exodus 2018:
apparently Fekitoa not enjoying his time in France and looking at returning for a tilt at the RWC...
Playing on the wing according to these highlights. Messam at 7.
