TSF NPC Tipping 2024
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@antipodean said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:
I got chatgpt to pick my winners and margins. Need to find another AI...
I think @kirwan used claude. That wasn't much better
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The amusing thing is it was an exercise in confirmation bias. It selected the same winners and most of the margins I had already. So we're both inept.
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@antipodean said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:
The amusing thing is it was an exercise in confirmation bias. It selected the same winners and most of the margins I had already. So we're both inept.
It takes too long to setup properly. If you give Claude the last five years of results, tables and margins and tweak it week by week it can be quite good.
But the main flaw is past results don’t really mean much and it gives way too much weight to them.
Tips better than me, but that is a comically Low bar.
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Time to get those tips in everyone https://thesilverfern.com/tipping-submit
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All is updated at https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/ including next week's tipping form.
Some big scoring this week with @hydro11 bagging the season's top score of 72 - 7/7 results with 5 margins and both categories picked as well. @Donsteppa did the same but with 4 margin picks and Triple T the same but with just 1 category to score 69 and 67. @Kruse also picked 7/7. The Canterbury win caught the majority of people out and nobody at all had them at 17+. Lowest was @george33 who seems to make a habit of it.
Winger still leads but by only 2 from Donsteppa with Sportboy 10 back followed by Kruse and Hydro11 who is level with Langakali. In the Cup, we're down to the quarter-finals with no replays from the last round.
In the team comp, Wellington won again and look certain for top 4. BOP, HB and South hold the other play-off spots but Counties Waikato and the Bush aren't out of it.
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Time to tip everyone - looks like one of the tougher weeks to pick the winners https://thesilverfern.com/tipping-submit/
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The results are in https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/
Best of the weekend were Donsteppa, Plastered Peni and myself all with 56 points with 7/7 results and making identical picks. Also 7/7 for Kruse - 4 margin picks for Sportboy, Unite & Dolamite gave them 50+ scores.
Donsteppa has taken over at the top, 15 clear of Winger who only scored 39 and the top 6 are breaking clear of the rest. Worst score was AI Kirwan, picking just 3/7.
Wins for Wellington, Counties-Waikato, BOP & Wairarapa Bush means that it is 4/5 for the play-offs with 1 round to go. Bush, HB & C-W all on 17 points.
Cup semi-finals are Winger v Donsteppa and me v Triple T.
Missing tippers were @bayimports @Tim @ACT-Crusader @Grooter @Landers92
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@KiwiPie said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:
The results are in https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/
Best of the weekend were Donsteppa, Plastered Peni and myself all with 56 points with 7/7 results and making identical picks. Also 7/7 for Kruse - 4 margin picks for Sportboy, Unite & Dolamite gave them 50+ scores.
Donsteppa has taken over at the top, 15 clear of Winger who only scored 39 and the top 6 are breaking clear of the rest. Worst score was AI Kirwan, picking just 3/7.
Wins for Wellington, Counties-Waikato, BOP & Wairarapa Bush means that it is 4/5 for the play-offs with 1 round to go. Bush, HB & C-W all on 17 points.
Cup semi-finals are Winger v Donsteppa and me v Triple T.
Missing tippers were @bayimports @Tim @ACT-Crusader @Grooter @Landers92
whoops, given AI made my tips, I also blame it for not submitting
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@bayimports said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:
whoops, given AI made my tips, I also blame it for not submitting
We won without you and with Sportboy turning up late - which is not something we should try next week with a semi-final place on the line!
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First game is in less than 5 hours - get your tips in for the final round of matches to decide the play-offs.
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Think I'll amend my tip to be Ta$man 1-8. I really should read squad announcements before submitting.
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The results are in https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/
It was a tough week for accuracy of picks and nobody picked 7/7. Getting 6/7 were Sportboy, TR, Dan54, Corkscrew, Kirwan & BorderJB. Mikedogz was top scorer on 47 with 3 maximums and Manawatu as low scorers with TR and Bay Imports a point behind. George33 continued his impressive run of low scores with a season's low of 14.
Donsteppa's lead is down to 11 with the unlikely scenario of Sportboy in 2nd place, moving above Winger. BOP has 3 of the top 4 and finish the regular season 2nd behind Wellington who were pipped by Wairarapa Bush who sneak into 4th spot and a repeat game against Wellington in the semi-final. It is the Battle of the Bays in the other semi.
I moved into the final of the Cup beating Triple T in a low scoring game. I will play Donsteppa or Winger - the winner of their replay is the first to move ahead next weekend. 2 legs for the Cup final.
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@Machpants said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:
Sorry fellow Bush team - shiiiiiiiiiiiite week for me. But you managed to keep us in it
Good news for Bush - you were drafted into the Counties Waikato team at the start of the season!
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@KiwiPie said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:
@Machpants said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:
Sorry fellow Bush team - shiiiiiiiiiiiite week for me. But you managed to keep us in it
Good news for Bush - you were drafted into the Counties Waikato team at the start of the season!
Oh yeah I forgot, still listed under Bush
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Time to tip - penultimate week and then we wait until February 2025 before we get to tip again.
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The results are in for the penultimate round of TSF NPC Tipping https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/
A very tough week with only 2 picking Counties to win and 6 picking Harbour - and nobody of course picking the massive routs. Your score was largely dependent on whether you picked Hawke's Bay or Auckland and Otago or Ta$man to win as these were 50/50 splits.
Best of the weekend was Wayne's World with 4 maximums in 5 correct results, the only tipper to pass 40 points. Dolamite the only tipper to pick 6/7 was second best on 39 with M'nch and Stockcar86.
At the top, Donsteppa takes a 12 point lead into the final round with Winger in 2nd and Sportboy 19 points behind in 3rd. Low score was BorderJB with 17.
In the teams comp, the final will be between Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa Bush as the top 2 on the ladder, Wellington and BOP, bombed out. Lowest score for HB was 34, best score for BOP was only 32 so a comprehensive thrashing. Wellington v Bush was closer but the 45 from Waynes World sealed it.
In the Cup, Winger eventually beat Donsteppa in the replay by picking Waikato 17+ - Winger leads me 35-31 after the first leg of the final.
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Given it is the last weekend for tipping and I get to put my feet up for 4 months afterwards, I'll try to send some live updates during the weekend.
Going into the final weekend, Donsteppa leads by 12 looking to win his first title outright after sharing it back in 2008 and finishing 3rd in the last 2 seasons. Will the pressure be too much.
2nd is Winger, who won outright in 2012 and shared the title with Bay Imports in 2019.
3rd and 19 off the lead is Sportboy who has never finished in the top 3 in any TSF Tipping competition. I don't believe anyone else can make up the gap to win overall.
The teams final is between Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa Bush. Hawke's Bay are 4 times winners and the reigning champions while Bush are 3 times winners.
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Final reminder to get your tips in for NPC 2024. https://thesilverfern.com/tipping-submit/
TSF Tipping
