NFL 2024
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The Ravens have a brutal next few weeks. I got a sportsbet special where if you put a bet on a team to win the Superbowl, you got a bonus bet back every time they won. I picked the Ravens. That's going really fucking good.
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The league is fucking loooooaaaaded with QBs who are battling at the moment. Rookies, sophomores, 3rd year guys. Battling.
I am wondering if we are finally heading for a correction in the QB market. Right now, if your guy looks half decent, he gets paid. Dak fucking Prescott has the league's biggest deal and he is leading his team nowhere. Young guys are thrown in the deep end by organisations hoping they hit on the next Mahomes, and then they get cut real quick when wins don't magically arrive.
Meanwhile there are vets out there playing decent footy, often in a new team. Redemption stories are everywhere.
Teams would do better to draft a guy they like, and develop him, preferably without starting. The idea of making your QB better with time, coaching, play-calling, and getting the other parts of the offence right is out the window. It's draft, then either cut or hugely over pay. And unless you get lucky and draft Mahomes, it doesn't even lead to success. The list of Superbowl winning QBs over the past 2 decades is pretty short. -
@mariner4life said in NFL 2024:
The league is fucking loooooaaaaded with QBs who are battling at the moment. Rookies, sophomores, 3rd year guys. Battling.
I am wondering if we are finally heading for a correction in the QB market. Right now, if your guy looks half decent, he gets paid. Dak fucking Prescott has the league's biggest deal and he is leading his team nowhere. Young guys are thrown in the deep end by organisations hoping they hit on the next Mahomes, and then they get cut real quick when wins don't magically arrive.
Meanwhile there are vets out there playing decent footy, often in a new team. Redemption stories are everywhere.
Teams would do better to draft a guy they like, and develop him, preferably without starting. The idea of making your QB better with time, coaching, play-calling, and getting the other parts of the offence right is out the window. It's draft, then either cut or hugely over pay. And unless you get lucky and draft Mahomes, it doesn't even lead to success. The list of Superbowl winning QBs over the past 2 decades is pretty short.And even if you do draft someone good, the team is shit from the owners down to the coaches and the players. So they waste what might be a promising talent by playing them too early in a really tough situation
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Under the current CBA holdouts like that are impossible - the salaries are locked in and holding out means the contract doesn't toll so the contract doesn't tick down.
Peyton is the better comparison here - went back to school rather than declaring in 98 to avoid the jets. But it's a gamble because you don't know who will get the first overall pick.
The Packers have shown a different model - first Rodgers then Luck were drafted late in the first and given years to develop (although Rodgers was a massive talent that was a suprise drop and Luck a bit of a surprise whose overall talent level is hard to judge).
The difference between college and the NFL is huge too. NFL schemes (offence and defence) are massively more complex and the reads vastly more difficult, the inelegible receiver rules make running screen plays, play action and RPO less effective than in college and the athletic differences are huge - an elite QB from a big school will generally have receivers who are better that their opponents most week so consistently get wide open, and when they don't will generally win a contested ball so you can just chuck it up. The routine of having to diagnose a complex shell from a single key, then work through 2-3 reads to find the open guy, then fit the ball into a tight window is just not something that they have to do regularly, if at all. Mahomes said he couldn't reliably read a defence until his third year.
Early success for a QB tends to be about having a scheme that figures out the bits they can already do and letting them do that while minimising the stuff they haven't figured out yet.
The biggest disasters are generally when you do the opposite. Zach Wilson probably a good example of this. His skill set in college was rolling out, throwing on the move and extending plays. The jets tried to install a precision timing based west coast style scheme that he was utterly incapable of executing. He probably wouldn't have been that successful even in a different scheme, but that choice just ruined it.
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Great post.
Throw in the development in the pass rush and new QBs need to do all that with no time and constant pressure.
Pass rush is now such a money position that elite athletic talent is drawn there. And it's not just the edge guys any more, interior d-line guys areno longer huge guys to stop the run, they are serious athletes schemed to get to the QB.
Then linebackers are smaller and faster to.cover receivers.The age of the run is back.
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@mariner4life Also add in that offensive line play has been on a downward trend for years
CBA rules mean less proper contact practices for offensive lines to practice
Aside from left tackle very few teams invest money in offensive line. Most lines consistent of mostly journeymen as a general rule.
The quality of offensive lineman coming out in the draft has been on a downward trend
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Delayed as I took a few days to really catch up, but damn NFL is back baby. I saw the matchups for week 2 and thought 'meh'. Holy shit how wrong was I. Incredible results - it's such an unpredictable league.
Apex sport watching for me. Loving it. And DAZN have upped their game - the streaming quality was top tier and the 'ad free' is the best way to watch a game start to finish. Strong recommend.
Mahomes is still a goddamn cheat code. What a player. Burrow is fucking good, but the Bengals just didn't quite have enough ... still some bone headed plays.
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And Tua goes to IR. Minimum 4 weeks on the sideline. They have a pretty soft schedule over those 4 weeks, so I think 3-1 is possible, putting them at 4-2 for the season, which will put a but of pressure on Tua to come back. I'm not a dolphins fan, and I am a jets fan (for my sins) so I guess this is easy to say, but I genuinely think the best thing for Tua is a 0-4 run, leaving them 1-5 with the playoffs out of reach, totally removing the temptation for him to rush back.
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One thing I'll say about the jets
I think they have the best uniform in the league
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haha
he's nothing like Peyton or Eli!
no way either of them could run one in from 60 yards, and they know it
even grandad arch is telling them that his athletic genes skipped a generationwith the added running game, young arch has the potential to be even better than both peyton and eli
his dad (Cooper) was a wide-receiver in college, smashed up his knee real bad (i think) and never made it to the pros
looking like he would have gone ok if he had -
haha
he's nothing like Peyton or Eli!
no way either of them could run one in from 60 yards, and they know it
even grandad arch is telling them that his athletic genes skipped a generationwith the added running game, young arch has the potential to be even better than both peyton and eli
his dad (Cooper) was a wide-receiver in college, smashed up his knee real bad (i think) and never made it to the pros
looking like he would have gone ok if he hadHis uncles have 4 SB rings between them. Young Arch should be so lucky to be like them
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Anyone watching this TNF blockbuster?
The Patriots have 40 yards for the entire half? 8 pass attempts and 5 rushes total?? Brissett has been sacked 3 times already??
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@mariner4life Sure am. It’s a tough watch but if it’s on you bet I’ll be watching it. Patriots are a hot mess on offense and their defense isn’t a lot better today. ARod picking and choosing. This could get ugly
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Rodgers rolling back the years, throwing lasers on the move. I was expecting him to be good, but thought he'd be almost purely a packet posser given his age, and throw the first two weeks that's all he'd been, so dunno whether this is just about the opposition or whether he's getting more confident in his body over the season.
Patriots are putrid though - lacking talent to start and down both starting tackles from last week. Hence the 7 sacks. Some backbreaking penalties too. A few garbage time snaps from Maye - managed to get sacked twice, almost get picked off on his first attempt and a couple of wayward passes. About what you'd expect from a rookie who's developing, but definitely not ready to start yet.
Bengals are going to regret that loss at end of the season I suspect, will be important for seeding even if they still make the playoffs.
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i never rated eli, but yes he did get real hot twice
with the parity in the NFL, it sort of all rides on your QB getting on a hot streak at play off time
joe flacco for the ravens, classic example
apart from those two times i think eli was only a 500 QB
debate at the moment about whether eli should be in the hall of fame
i say no, but his manning name will probably get him therepeyton was in a different class, still couldn't run the ball to save himself, but probably the greatest QB technician ever
if arch can add a running game to peyton's technical ability. . . . .WOW
interesting to see where he eventually ends up, with the Manning mana in the NFL, pretty sure they'll get him to where they want
