Super Rugby - The Future
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@Kiwiwomble said in Super Rugby - The Future:
@Duluth im out of my depth with things like licences etc....but why couldnt a union enter a team in a competition?
Because they are poor.
Private franchises pay for a license and try to make money in the market (obviously it's more complex than that with the NZR relationship)
Most unions lose money and only Auckland has decent cash reserves
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@Duluth oh, i thought you meant legally they wouldnt be allowed for some reason
I'm just assuming launching a large new comp would give them the opportunity to attract new sponsors or private investors, if we're talking such a new format then it would need a new TV deal with the proceeds going directly to the teams
in my mind we're not just talking about exactly the same PU team running out there without change in their income
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The complexity in any additional NZ teams will be in the contracts the current license holders have. The license is for a certain period of time but I presume there'll be a clauses about the number of teams and/or location of other teams
That's why the license doubling may work. All current license holders aren't ripped off
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@Duluth said in Super Rugby - The Future:
@dogmeat said in Super Rugby - The Future:
Picking an additional 3 for NZ would be very difficult.
Ta$man, Taranaki, the two bays Counties, Harbour would all argue their case.
Northland as well.
I don't see how they could be unions. Maybe a union could fund a license purchase?
My preference has actually been for more NZ teams than 8
The 'easiest' way to expand and not piss off the current private license holders would be to turn every license into two. The holder could then attempt to run two teams or make money from the sale of the extra license
Blues split in two at the bridge
Crusaders split into Ta$man & Christchurch
Rest of the North Island can be split in a few different ways
The Highlanders extra license would have to go to the North Island somewhereSo 10 teams, 7 North Island & 3 South Island. Its a good split in terms of population and players original location
10 sides doesn't fit the symmetry of that 3 regions thing I suggested in the last post though
I think it would work if there were two interrelated competitions, however fitting in the J-league would be a potential issue (unless the club championship competition was carried out roughly during our NPC time period).
But, for discussion sake, the J-league runs their competition and then sends some teams to the club competition, as do we, as do Aus.
10 NZ sides (Divided into 5 & 5)
6 Aus sides including 2 PI sides (i.e., no Rebels, so 3 & 3)
6 Japanese company sides (Either the top 6 from the J-league Div 1 or ask them to split the Div 1 into Div 1 and Super, split 3 & 3 in which case it could run alongside the J-league)Club Premier (D1): 11 teams
Club Championship (D2): 11 teams -
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@Duluth said in Super Rugby - The Future:
Odd numbers isn't great
As long as the cross over games within the region were scheduled well there wouldn't be too many byes
Depending on the timing, we could arguably have 12 teams, or of course, Oz could have 6+2, in which case it would be 12 + 12.
I really feel like the opportunity to really integrate with Japan was missed when they set up the League one realignment of the competitions there. They had 12 teams in Div 1 and we could have got them to put 6 of them into Super and had Super (6), Div 1 (12), Div 2 (5) - in other words, essentially keeping the same three-tiered system they have introduced, but with the absolute cream on top in Super rugby.
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@Duluth more coherent than just about every other proposal I've seen!
Questions for me are seasonal in Japan (and possibly US), and also whether the quality of rugby is high enough to prepare players for international rugby.
I think Super over the years was a key driver in the SAANZAR success.
Edit: and the corllary - the recent drop in quality leads to those sides not being as dominant
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Can NZ afford 350 fully professional players? Because that's what 10 teams looks like
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@mariner4life said in Super Rugby - The Future:
Can NZ afford 350 fully professional players? Because that's what 10 teams looks like
No.
But possibly 8 sides if the revenue gets generated ...
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That's sort of how I got 8
And I liked a 15 team comp, seemed like a nice number. -
@mariner4life said in Super Rugby - The Future:
Can NZ afford 350 fully professional players? Because that's what 10 teams looks like
That's a really good point.
If we looked at Japan with 12 in their first division and based it off that, then:
Japan 12 (6 and 6)
NZ 8 (4 and 4)
OZ incl 2 PI sides 6 (3 and 3)Club Premier: 13 teams
Club Championship: 13 teams13 week round robin then 2-3 weeks of finals.
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@mariner4life said in Super Rugby - The Future:
Can NZ afford 350 fully professional players? Because that's what 10 teams looks like
if we're bringing Japan into the mix then there has to be more revenue streams to tap
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Whenever the idea of including Japan in a competition comes up, I think it's useful to try to separate how much money Japanese companies put into club salaries, operations, and facilities from what TV and other revenues the competition brings in. Not the easiest thing to find, but I've seen a figure for Japan League One 2022 revenue of US$25M [1], and an estimate of US$27M for 2023 in the NZ Herald (vague, and I can't find the article).
This doesn't seem like much money, and any more games will need to be weighed against other opportunities like more international games. I have a lot of doubt about Japanese club rugby being of much use to us.
@gt12 Can you find some better sources?
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@mariner4life said in Super Rugby - The Future:
Can NZ afford 350 fully professional players? Because that's what 10 teams looks like
Possibly. A 10 team comp would also mean an amateur NPC
There’s around $14 million spent in the current eco system that frees up.. some sponsors would drop out others would join. I would think the new comp would be more attractive
But yes 8 would be safer
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I am firmly of the opinion, and have said it numerous times, that the future of the NPC (ie provincial rugby) is as a fully amateur representative competition. This still costs money though. Flights and Accommodation at the very least.
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Put it on FTA TV and that, even reduced, broadcast deal should pay for most of it.
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They've suggested regional pools to keep travel down. That'll probably happen. Long bus rides and people sleeping in their own beds more often
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Found this interesting as to how the Sky TV deal is structured:
Subsequently, NZR has agreed to pay $8m this year and next to Rugby Australia as a retrospective revenue sharing agreement now that they are joint-owners of Super Rugby Pacific and the latter was only able to strike a A$29m-a-year rights deal with Channel 9.
A longer-term revenue sharing formula between the two will be agreed for the next broadcast deal, which means that almost certainly given the low profile of rugby in Australia, New Zealand will end up subsidising its Ta$man partner.
Historically NZR has been able to limit the amount of Super Rugby and Rugby Championship money it shares with its Sanzaar partners, by working with Sky to inflate the book value of the NPC.
It is believed that the current deal has attributed a nominal value of $45m-a-year to the NPC, but NZR has endangered its ability to continue with this practice by wrongly telling its provincial unions in late March that Sky had indicated it wouldn’t bid for the competition’s rights in the next broadcast cycle.
“Future broadcast revenue values for the NPC will be significantly lower than previous broadcast agreements, on the basis that Sky TV is not expected to wish to bid for rights to broadcast every NPC / FPC [Farah Palmer Cup] game moving forward,” the communication said.
The information was wrong, Sky has not made any indication it will pull out, but it has told investors it wants to reduce production costs from 52 per cent of its total costs to 47 per cent, suggesting that the NPC may in future be filmed with fewer cameras and potentially with remote commentary, making it hard to credibly present an inflated value to Australia as a ploy to share less Super Rugby revenue.
Inside NZR’s record TV deal and problems it will face securing a better one
NZ Rugby's next broadcast contract is critical to the game’s financial future.
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@Duluth said in Super Rugby - The Future:
They've suggested regional pools to keep travel down. That'll probably happen. Long bus rides and people sleeping in their own beds more often
fuck yes! bring back some of the fun element!
