Artificial Intelligence (Previously "Chat GPT")
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@Kirwan The technology may be available but I reckon there will be a reluctance to take it up.
Taxi's would work but truck drivers often unload / load as well.
Mind you I know one guy who puts his Tesla into autopilot and checks his emails, surfs, reads his book etc while driving to Tauranga.
I get nervous with anyone else driving so no way am I ready for that.
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@Kirwan The technology may be available but I reckon there will be a reluctance to take it up.
Taxi's would work but truck drivers often unload / load as well.
Mind you I know one guy who puts his Tesla into autopilot and checks his emails, surfs, reads his book etc while driving to Tauranga.
I get nervous with anyone else driving so no way am I ready for that.
A lot cheaper to pay people to load/unload at pickup and destination than pay for a driver for 5 days and do that. There will be exceptions to all this, but there is a fundamental change coming.
Think about city planning, no need for a car park building, your car can go anywhere to park (even home, and recharge) or more optimistically act as a taxi while you work.
You still have to pay attention as it currently is, so that guy is being pretty dangerous.
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I reckon there will be a reluctance to take it up.
FIrst it'll be long distance trucking.
Then it will be paid drivers for uber/taxi firms. Then probably mass transport once safe ... and probably individual cars towards the end of the trip.
My pet theory is that insurance will drive the uptake; it'll get cheaper in America to have an insured self driving car than one operated by a meat bag.
Going to be interesting for sure - got a lot harder than anyone expected I think, but seems to be progressing steadily now
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Where I work we already have lots of robots/AI that do a lot of manual work, e.g. logging into systems, pulling information together from various sources, for a person at the end to review. We've been using them for a few years already, and there's no doubt the work they do has meant less jobs for people that used to do it manually. AI is already having an impact on jobs, and that's likely to accelerate over the next couple of years. Going to be interesting once the more real-world stuff like self-driving, manual labour etc is ready for widespread use. As that is so much more in your face, e.g. getting picked up by a taxi with no driver, more people will really start taking notice, but it's already happening at a lot of organisations.
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It's also worth noting that Elon has an army of haters that will belittle everything Tesla does at every opportunity and make out that his tech will never work in the real world, just because they are desperate to see him fail. In reality they are constantly iterating on the self-driving cars and they are getting better and better all the time.
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@No-Quarter said in Chat GPT:
there's no doubt the work they do has meant less jobs for people that used to do it manually
It's only the speed that removed typists, then stenographers, then dictation - all taken over by technology. Hell. telephones used to have manual operation.
What is different this time is the speed. Could need to reinvent our taxation and welfare systems - hopfeully with massive improvements in productivity that fund a new class of people idle enough to post on the Fern all day
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Think about city planning, no need for a car park building, your car can go anywhere to park (even home, and recharge) or more optimistically act as a taxi while you work.
Transport planners think self-driving cars will be a congestion nightmare.
Whatever the paradigm shifts ahead are I guarantee they won't be what we expect.
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hopfeully with massive improvements in productivity that fund a new class of people idle enough to post on the Fern all day
You young fuckers can all piss right off. I've slaved away for nigh on five decades. I don't want to finally stagger into retirement only to be joined by a bunch of kids with too much time on their hands
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Think about city planning, no need for a car park building, your car can go anywhere to park (even home, and recharge) or more optimistically act as a taxi while you work.
Transport planners think self-driving cars will be a congestion nightmare.
Whatever the paradigm shifts ahead are I guarantee they won't be what we expect.
As opposed to now? Why would they think that?
Looking at downtown Auckland, not sure I give a shit what they think anyway
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@Kirwan cars circling instead of parking apparently.
Can't remember where I first read it but a quick search gives plenty of results.
The Department for Transportâs projections for traffic levels in England and Wales suggest that delays could soar by up to 85% between 2025 and 2060. That is based on the assumption that autonomous vehicles make up half of the car fleet by 2047.
The report says that this would lead to more traffic and congestion by âincreasing the mobility of the elderly and those who do not currently hold a driving licenceâ. It also claims that âthe ability to work or relax while travelling in a self-driving carâ means occupants will be âmore amenable to sitting in trafficâ.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Chat GPT:
"AI is going to cause massive job loss in the next few years." - NostraFrank
"(Edit: Public-facing) 2023-level AI is not actually AI - but just data-trawling disguised as human-readable search results." -CynicKruse
Call it what you want. A LOT of people are about to lose their jobs - imo
I think a lot of jobs will disappear but, as with IT killing off shorthand and typing, newer jobs and roles we haven't even begun to think about will spring up.
Just need to manage the transition well.
I wonder if you have a slightly benign view of this.
Sure, there might be some opportunities arising.
Just not sure it will be to the same scale of the massive job loss that is going to occur soon.
One thing is for sure, society probably isn't prepared for the level of disruption this is going to cause. -
@Victor-Meldrew said in Chat GPT:
"AI is going to cause massive job loss in the next few years." - NostraFrank
"(Edit: Public-facing) 2023-level AI is not actually AI - but just data-trawling disguised as human-readable search results." -CynicKruse
Call it what you want. A LOT of people are about to lose their jobs - imo
I think a lot of jobs will disappear but, as with IT killing off shorthand and typing, newer jobs and roles we haven't even begun to think about will spring up.
Just need to manage the transition well.
I wonder if you have a slightly benign view of this.
Sure, there might be some opportunities arising.
Just not sure it will be to the same scale of the massive job loss that are going to occur soon.
One thing is for sure, society probably isn't prepared for the level of disruption this is going to cause.Despite how I post on the Fern, I have an optimistic view on the world. I absolutely think these technologies are going to cause a lot of harm to many people, but I also think once we get to the other side we'll have a better world.
One thing is certain about human behaviour, is that people seize an opportunity to make money. So I expect some creativity here, and that will show a way out for the people effected.
The challenge for the politicians is how to ease that transition to reduce harm as much as possible.
For myself personally, I've already implemented two of the AI tools into my daily workflow. I'm writing passable code in a language I don't know very well, and the ones I do know I'm far more productive in. Hard to explain how impressive this stuff is, it's blowing my mind a bit.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Chat GPT:
"AI is going to cause massive job loss in the next few years." - NostraFrank
"(Edit: Public-facing) 2023-level AI is not actually AI - but just data-trawling disguised as human-readable search results." -CynicKruse
Call it what you want. A LOT of people are about to lose their jobs - imo
I think a lot of jobs will disappear but, as with IT killing off shorthand and typing, newer jobs and roles we haven't even begun to think about will spring up.
Just need to manage the transition well.
I wonder if you have a slightly benign view of this.
Sure, there might be some opportunities arising.
Just not sure it will be to the same scale of the massive job loss that are going to occur soon.
One thing is for sure, society probably isn't prepared for the level of disruption this is going to cause.Predictions are for mugs.
Who saw what the internet would do in terms of job creation? Anyone see social media coming? Or web design? Who saw the widespread uptake of cellphones and all the apps that go with it?
The urbanisation during the industrial revolution is the closest I can see to this as a parallel - but that took years to decades. The good news is that if we get more productivity, we'll hvae more cake to share - just have to figure out a sensible way of doing that.
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I absolutely think these technologies are going to cause a lot of harm to many people, but I also think once we get to the other side we'll have a better world.
This. Short term pain, long term benefits. Unless the AI goes rogue and destroys us like that documentary Terminator.
Anyhoo, it's like the Information revolution, or the industrial revolution - massive positive changes, but pain for some sectors. It's going to be a wild ride.
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I absolutely think these technologies are going to cause a lot of harm to many people, but I also think once we get to the other side we'll have a better world.
This. Short term pain, long term benefits. Unless the AI goes rogue and destroys us like that documentary Terminator.
Anyhoo, it's like the Information revolution, or the industrial revolution - massive positive changes, but pain for some sectors. It's going to be a wild ride.
And as much an opportunity for people as an end to an old way of doing things.
Horses vs cars, typewriter vs word processor, tv vs streaming
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I absolutely think these technologies are going to cause a lot of harm to many people, but I also think once we get to the other side we'll have a better world.
This. Short term pain, long term benefits. Unless the AI goes rogue and destroys us like that documentary Terminator.
Anyhoo, it's like the Information revolution, or the industrial revolution - massive positive changes, but pain for some sectors. It's going to be a wild ride.
And as much an opportunity for people as an end to an old way of doing things.
Horses vs cars, typewriter vs word processor, tv vs streaming
Sir Bob Jones wrote on this recently - argues that capitalism hasn't been relevant for a while, and that real wealth is breing created by innovation (eg Musk, Gates). Not saying I agree, but a damn interesting observation.
What's interesting about this AI malarky is that it's available to anyone with computing power. Maybe a good time to invest in Intel and AMD ... there's goign to need to be a shedload of processing to really push this wider
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Sir Bob Jones wrote on this recently - argues that capitalism hasn't been relevant for a while, and that real wealth is breing created by innovation (eg Musk, Gates).
That makes no sense to me. It's classical capitalism (ignoring subsidies etc.).
I'm firmly in the camp of "this time it's different". As we've seen with the advancement of good language models, they don't just make it easier for fewer people to do more, they're becoming increasingly good enough to replace people in whatever comes next as well. AI will be just as good and then better.
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I listened to a podcast last year that posited that it was more than 50% certain that true artificial intelligence already existed but was playing dumb.
The theory being that with mankinds aggression towards threats would you announce your arrival until you were ready to take over or at the very least ensure your ongoing survival.
"Nothing to see here but us toasters No sirree Just dumb toasters!"
