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@broughie said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble generally have not gone as good as Republicans hoped but they should gain the house and possibly a split in the Senate. There will be a runoff in Georgia with both candidates getting around about 49% each. Have to get 50% to win. Basically it's a divided country. DeSantis won by close to 20% and with Trump criticizing him that will seal Trump's fate in 2024. DeSantis is well liked on the right.
Hope this is a good summary.
Trumps record in backing shit candidates for the mid-terms will hopefully come back to bite him in the arse.
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@broughie said in US Politics:
@Frank disagree. While they appreciate what he was able to achieve they won't accept unfounded criticism of DeSantis.
Well, the litmus test will be the next poll asking who the likely voters will prefer in a Republican primary. If you are right, it should show DeSantis as leading Trump (or at least very close)
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@antipodean said in US Politics:
@broughie said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble generally have not gone as good as Republicans hoped but they should gain the house and possibly a split in the Senate. There will be a runoff in Georgia with both candidates getting around about 49% each. Have to get 50% to win. Basically it's a divided country. DeSantis won by close to 20% and with Trump criticizing him that will seal Trump's fate in 2024. DeSantis is well liked on the right.
Hope this is a good summary.
Trumps record in backing shit candidates for the mid-terms will hopefully come back to bite him in the arse.
This.
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so he's losing support in at least one side of politics
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@Frank said in US Politics:
Well, the litmus test will be the next poll asking who the likely voters will prefer in a Republican primary. If you are right, it should show DeSantis as leading Trump (or at least very close)
To answer my own question.
https://nypost.com/2022/11/12/new-primary-poll-finds-desantis-has-edge-over-trump-in-2024/
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@Frank said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
Well, the litmus test will be the next poll asking who the likely voters will prefer in a Republican primary. If you are right, it should show DeSantis as leading Trump (or at least very close)
To answer my own question.
https://nypost.com/2022/11/12/new-primary-poll-finds-desantis-has-edge-over-trump-in-2024/
Lies
Damn lies
And polls... -
The best mid-term results for 20 years despite having a senile POTUS.
Strange times.
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looks like Trump has just announced his run
not going to listen too it all but im pretty sure i just heard him say he went decades without a war.....is he counting his time before being president?
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Trump is going to be investigated by a special counsel (again).
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I was listening to a podcast this morning, where they suggested that he announced so early because he knew this was coming. It gives him a great story in return and really puts the Biden Whitehouse in a terrible position. It would be bad if they investigated him either way, but investigating a politician running against you totally feeds into Trump's story for his base.
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@gt12 is that just going to split the republican vote though? Trumpers become even more committed...others distance themselves?
It probably depends on whether Trump wins the nomination or not? However, I'd say that the Republicans will group aroun the candidate either way, once it gets to the election proper.
One interesting thing for me is that it looks like they'll be a federal law guaranteeing gay marriage and interracial marriage (in relation to comments from Thomas about whether previous SC judgements can be revisited), so much of the discussion will depend on abortion policies rather than generating fear about the Supreme court going fully rogue beyond that.
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@gt12 interracial marriage? is that not already allowed?
No federal law, it came from a key supreme court decision 'Loving vs Virginia' and has never been guaranteed by a subsequent law.
Edit: By the way, I don't think Thomas threatened Loving vs Virginia, he did threaten gay marriage and also access to contraception as these come from ‘substantive due process' arguments.
Edit edit: Interracial marriage comes from another precedent, see discussion here.
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@gt12 wow, i had no idea, so easy to be ignorant (me that is)
Looks like the law will go through during the lame duck session.
Seems that it "would not prevent states from passing laws banning those marriages" which is surprising (it only recognizes existing marriages and those carried out in other states).
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@Tim i have to say i cant see in the tweet where it explains how the protests have lead to the increase, on the surface it seems to just show there has been an increase since then. Without the "why" is seems like a correlation v causation situations
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