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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
Collins actions on Wednesday night remind me of Muldoon's snap election.
I wonder if she was similarly pissed. It's the only credible explanation for such a monumentally stupid decision.
I thought at the time it would likely blow up in her face - and that was before I learned how lame the alleged offence really was.
Doubt she was drunk, the scenerio outlined above is that Bridges came to her saying he had the numbers and she reacted by saying she would destroy his career (apparantly throwing a friend under the bus as well).
Vindictive, selfish, and she got what she deserved.
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@jc said in NZ Politics:
@donsteppa Ben Thomas apparently doesn’t know the difference between intolerable and untenable. Otherwise he’s right.
His first paragraph in the article says her leadership moved from untenable to intolerable, so rightly or wrongly, it was intentional.
@kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@reprobate said in NZ Politics:
What a debacle. It's not healthy for what is effectively a two party system to have one of those parties such a rabble. Every single valid criticism of Labour can effectively be parried with 'yeah, but that fucking mess over there is the alternative'.
National are in exactly the same state Labour where in when they rolled Cunliffe, Little and then rolled the dice on Taxinda.
Similar place in the polls too.
So it can be turned around quickly.
This is worse than Labour's efforts in opposition (which were terrible at points), and also more like Labour 2011-14 than Labour in the other terms of the National government, although there are certainly parallels. 2008 after Clark they chose Goff who duly lost in 2011 and resigned, and while he was never likely to win against Key, caucus and the party were behind him as leader at least. To me, there are similarities to English and Bridges as experienced MPs and former ministers.
2011-14 was Shearer who was a good bloke by all accounts but got parachuted in too early in his career and lost caucus after his inexperience showed and polls started dropping, and Cunliffe who was very popular with the party faithful but not popular at all with caucus or the voters, so the election ended with a record low Labour vote and a caucus in shambles. To me, there are similarities to Muller and Collins respectively although Cunliffe's exit was less damaging.
2017-20 was obviously Little who had the full confidence of the party members and caucus and did a lot of work to pull everyone back onto the same page. Then as the election loomed and Labour's support cratered, Little stepped aside for Ardern who did enough to get into a place where Labour were in a position to form a government and then managed to actually form it. Can't compare the current National issues to Little and Ardern, they haven't reached that point yet, but it suggests to me that, 2 years out still, they would be better to choose a leader who can spend the next 18 months getting caucus unity and getting the hits on the current government (no shortage of opportunities although as with Key, the voters may not listen), and then switch leaders to someone more electable much closer to the election if polling dictates that.
It's not like it's an unachievable task, current polls suggest 50-42 or so for L+G vs N+A, so National and Act just need to pull back 5%. That's obviously not a small amount, but it's not insurmountable either.
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@kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@reprobate said in NZ Politics:
What a debacle. It's not healthy for what is effectively a two party system to have one of those parties such a rabble. Every single valid criticism of Labour can effectively be parried with 'yeah, but that fucking mess over there is the alternative'.
National are in exactly the same state Labour where in when they rolled Cunliffe, Little and then rolled the dice on Taxinda.
Similar place in the polls too.
So it can be turned around quickly.
They need someone to capture the imagination of the voting public though. And right now they don't appear to have it
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@mikedogz that would really be a strong indicator of someone putting the party (and NZ!) ahead of personal ambition. Hold the 'interim' leadership role with someone in the leadership group that would come forward just in time for the campaign cycle, but without the bloodshed and back stabbing. Wow, that'd be a change... and a pipedream!!
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Bridges appears to be in the running. Seems a bad mistake for mine. It kinda felt like Bridges had found his niche within the party post-leadership as a bit of a junkyard dog in terms of his critique and attacks on the opposition. He wasn't popular with voters a year ago, so I can't see how he is going to turn that around this time.
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@aucklandwarlord said in NZ Politics:
Bridges appears to be in the running. Seems a bad mistake for mine. It kinda felt like Bridges had found his niche within the party post-leadership as a bit of a junkyard dog in terms of his critique and attacks on the opposition. He wasn't popular with voters a year ago, so I can't see how he is going to turn that around this time.
Ego and ambition don't care about reason
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@mariner4life said in NZ Politics:
@aucklandwarlord said in NZ Politics:
Bridges appears to be in the running. Seems a bad mistake for mine. It kinda felt like Bridges had found his niche within the party post-leadership as a bit of a junkyard dog in terms of his critique and attacks on the opposition. He wasn't popular with voters a year ago, so I can't see how he is going to turn that around this time.
Ego and ambition don't care about reason
He's in the same position as Cunliffe was. It is not in his best interests to win the leadership because one likes him and he won't win enough votes. His best bet is to be in the background supporting a more charismatic leader who might get them back in power. Whoever that is or if it exists right now
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the 'list' hardly fills you with confidence
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@aucklandwarlord said in NZ Politics:
Bridges appears to be in the running. Seems a bad mistake for mine. It kinda felt like Bridges had found his niche within the party post-leadership as a bit of a junkyard dog in terms of his critique and attacks on the opposition. He wasn't popular with voters a year ago, so I can't see how he is going to turn that around this time.
From here he seems to be a mix of Tony Abbott's negativity and Barnaby Joyce's grasp of good policy. That's not a good combination for a PM.
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@antipodean said in NZ Politics:
@aucklandwarlord said in NZ Politics:
Bridges appears to be in the running. Seems a bad mistake for mine. It kinda felt like Bridges had found his niche within the party post-leadership as a bit of a junkyard dog in terms of his critique and attacks on the opposition. He wasn't popular with voters a year ago, so I can't see how he is going to turn that around this time.
From here he seems to be a mix of Tony Abbott's negativity and Barnaby Joyce's grasp of good policy. That's not a good combination for a PM.
He has that skill of rubbing people up the wrong way
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@canefan there was a brief period where he was almost chill, after he got backstabbed maybe? But when he reckons he's got someone or something pinned down (rightly or wrongly) he goes into full on smug rant mode. In my home country of Poland that kind of carry on isn't endearing.
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@smudge said in NZ Politics:
@nostrildamus said in NZ Politics:
@smudge said in NZ Politics:
@tim Considering the Herald is now reporting that the slighted MP, Jacqui Dean, complained about it at the time five years ago and Bridges was spoken to by then-leader Bill English, then abso-fucking-lutely.
Jacqui is in the Class of 2005 alongside Judith and is very much a Collins fan.
I predict this will simply hasten the demise of Collins, and it will backfire badly on her.
your post aged well. I don't often get to say that in TSF (about posts in general, I hasten to add).
I have a few spies who feed me well on the National Party politics front. Although most of us didn't have a clue how today was going to pan out.
From afar it seemed spectacular. I'd be surprised if Bridges returns though he seems to have some enemies/non-believers to contend with.
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@nostrildamus said in NZ Politics:
@smudge said in NZ Politics:
@nostrildamus said in NZ Politics:
@smudge said in NZ Politics:
@tim Considering the Herald is now reporting that the slighted MP, Jacqui Dean, complained about it at the time five years ago and Bridges was spoken to by then-leader Bill English, then abso-fucking-lutely.
Jacqui is in the Class of 2005 alongside Judith and is very much a Collins fan.
I predict this will simply hasten the demise of Collins, and it will backfire badly on her.
your post aged well. I don't often get to say that in TSF (about posts in general, I hasten to add).
I have a few spies who feed me well on the National Party politics front. Although most of us didn't have a clue how today was going to pan out.
From afar it seemed spectacular. I'd be surprised if Bridges returns though he seems to have some enemies/non-believers to contend with.
Bridges has already thrown his hat into the ring. But if he wins the leadership he will not possibly win the next election or even come close. He's just too unlikeable. I'm not sure Luxton is the answer, but in the limited interactions I've seen in the media he seemed to handle himself well, he's certainly no Muller. IMHO they need to convince Bridges to set aside his ego and offer him the 2IC spot along with whatever portfolio he wants (a bit like the Key English situation). If he competes and loses, I can see him continuing to be a corrosive influence against the next leader at a time that the Nats need to show unity. In an ideal world they would come out on Monday and announce that it's all been settled behind closed doors to spare them from more conflict
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From Simon Bridges:
This morning I met with Chris Luxon and had a great discussion. I am withdrawing from the leadership contest and will be backing Chris. He will make a brilliant National leader and Prime Minister.
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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
From Simon Bridges:
This morning I met with Chris Luxon and had a great discussion. I am withdrawing from the leadership contest and will be backing Chris. He will make a brilliant National leader and Prime Minister.
Kudos to Simon. Now he will be a senior MP under the new leader, or even 2IC
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"Simon, I've got the numbers, you don't. Now, you can either stand, lose, and get sent straight to the backbench for eternity
or
concede, save the Party some face, and I'll give you a decent job""upon discussions i have chosen not to stand because i believe in the other guy"
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@mariner4life said in NZ Politics:
"Simon, I've got the numbers, you don't. Now, you can either stand, lose, and get sent straight to the backbench for eternity
or
concede, save the Party some face, and I'll give you a decent job""upon discussions i have chosen not to stand because i believe in the other guy"
Probably. But if they have done a deal that was always going to be the best result for the sake of the party
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