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oh, they finally located that other woman that had been in Northland, found at an address in West Auckland, currently symptomatic...given she has for all intents and purposes been hiding from the police for 5 days, hopes of finding out from her any movements in the last 10 days are pretty slim...
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
oh, they finally located that other woman that had been in Northland, found at an address in West Auckland, currently symptomatic...given she has for all intents and purposes been hiding from the police for 5 days, hopes of finding out from her any movements in the last 10 days are pretty slim...
This is our reality now. Our luck has finally run out
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Interesting visual breakdown of the current cluster/outbreak by the different vaccinations statuses and hospitalisation.
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@rapido So roughly if you catch covid, 13% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated which drops to 4% when double jabbed.
So assuming we get to around 90%, someone who's better at maths can workout the rough guide for that extra 10% and work out how many cases it would take to fill 500 ICU beds.
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@rapido So roughly if you catch covid, 13% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated which drops to 4% when double jabbed.
So assuming we get to around 90%, someone who's better at maths can workout the rough guide for that extra 10% and work out how many cases it would take to fill 500 ICU beds.
Between 2.5 and 3 thousand I think. Lots of variables considering that they don't all fill at once and will empty out at different rates due to severity of illness.
So not many really
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@rapido So roughly if you catch covid, 13% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated which drops to 4% when double jabbed.
So assuming we get to around 90%, someone who's better at maths can workout the rough guide for that extra 10% and work out how many cases it would take to fill 500 ICU beds.
0.9*0.04 + 0.1*0.13 = 0.049 = 4.9% average hospitalization rate.
I don't know what the ICU rate out of those who are hospitalized is, maybe 10%?
So 0.049*0.1 = 0.0049 = 0.49% ICU rate.
Therefore 500/0.0049 = 102000 active cases.This does ignore the fact that the fully vaccinated rate is skewed towards higher age groups who are more susceptible to worse outcomes. The non vaccinated is skewed towards younger people and, the cases in the outbreak are mainly younger people, so that would even it out a bit.
It's also not really a big enough sample size to determine the hospitalization rates for the vaccinated, but yeah.
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most patients admitted to hospital with covid after 16 June 2021 were fully vaccinated.5 Public Health England said that even with a “highly effective vaccine” this was expected, given the high rate of vaccine uptake and a policy of vaccinating higher risk people first. In its latest surveillance report Public Health England emphasised that the rate of hospital admissions and death from covid remained “substantially greater” in unvaccinated than in vaccinated people.6 For example, between the week beginning Monday 16 August 2021 and the week ending Sunday 12 September, the rate of hospital admissions of over 80s was 50.5 per 100 000 in the fully vaccinated and 143.9 per 100 000 in the unvaccinated, while deaths were 45.5 and 145.4 per 100 000, respectively. These trends were seen across the board. For example, for 60-69 year olds the hospital admission rates were 13.5 per 100 000 in the fully vaccinated and 74.3 per 100 000 in the unvaccinated, while deaths were 4.1 and 24.3 per 100 000, respectively. source British Medical Journal
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Bloody geezus. Wellington may be back in lockdown soon, too, if this person has been infected and then out and about in the Capital.
A woman who travelled to Northland with a Covid-19 case has tested positive for the virus.
Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield talked to media on Tuesday morning, confirming the woman is now in a quarantine facility.
She was earlier located in West Auckland.
When police found her, the woman was showing symptoms of the virus.In a statement, the Ministry of Health said 18 contacts, including the woman who tested positive on Tuesday, had now been identified associated with the first case.
Of those 18, contact tracers had made contact with 17 individuals who had been tested.
Nine of the contacts were in Northland, seven in Auckland, and one in Wellington. One was still to be located. -
Someone just asked Bloomfield if they know if the 2 women that travelled up here were vaccinated and he said no they did not know.
How could they not know? If they know thier names surely they have access to records to see if they have had a jab without even needing to ask them that question?
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Someone just asked Bloomfield if they know if the 2 women that travelled up here were vaccinated and he said no they did not know.
How could they not know? If they know thier names surely they have access to records to see if they have had a jab without even needing to ask them that question?
He probably knows but he doesn't want to say
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this fuckstick is just sticking his middle finger up isnt he
I see there is one of these protests up here on Saturday too, a couple of FB 'friends' have been posting about it, one was oblivious to the fact they are linked to BT.
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Or they don't go into that level of detail unless they think it's necessary?
Probably don't want mixed messaging out there because of the other unknowns ie in case some people dont get tested because they think it was a 'safe' journey.
Message is clear. Place of interest or symptoms get tested. Irrespective of all and any other factors.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hooroo the wife and I are sorted. But we are still a bit hesitant for the kids. Only one is eligible anyway, and only just. Doesn't look like he'll be affected by any restrictions, and I'm not particularly worried about him catching the Rona. And with the wife getting an out of cycle period the day after she got her 2nd Jab, I'm pretty happy to wait a bit and see if we start growing 3rd testes
Wait, don't we all have three already? Guys? Help me out here...
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@crucial who is that in response to?
If me, they have data on those infected, hospitalised vs vaccinated/unvaccinated, I expect this is a key question asked, they have had 1 of these women for 7 days now, to claim to not know that is either extremely incompetent or well, I think there isnt an either or.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial who is that in response to?
If me, they have data on those infected, hospitalised vs vaccinated/unvaccinated, I expect this is a key question asked, they have had 1 of these women for 7 days now, to claim to not know that is either extremely incompetent or well, I think there isnt an either or.
Wasn't in response to anyone in particular it was the chain of posts discussion.
You are talking about the PM and DoH. They get briefed on what they need to know as important and important to communicate. Anyone writing reports or material that passes up the chain of govt knows that it gets edited along the way and detail removed unless the minister is a detail freak (and some are).
I can completely understand why that particular detail isn't important OR why it has been kept away from the messaging strategy (in that they cant answer the question if deliberately kept in the dark)As I said before that info is irrelevant to the message of 'get tested' unless you want to play the odds on deciding how at risk you may be.
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@crucial ah so they werent expecting to be questioned on Vaccine status of 2 women who breached the borders....
is not irrelevant, given you thought it relevant about how the one in Katikati was talked about as being fully vaxxed, why is it irrelevant now?
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial ah so they werent expecting to be questioned on Vaccine status of 2 women who breached the borders....
is not irrelevant, given you were banging on about how the one in Katikati was talked about as being fully vaxxed, why is it irrelevant now?
Maybe they were expecting it which is why they don't know (deliberately).
In the Katikati case they did know because they were trying to allay fears until the next test came back and stop people getting upset at the couple who had done everything by the book.
Why is it so important for people to know? That is the question.
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@crucial so in a case where you have a couple of retards, no point trying to allay fears for 180,000 people, but in the Katikati example because the person was good, we allay the fears of 5,000 or so?
WHy would they tell us about the Katikati one then if it isnt important? Why are they even telling us the vaccine information at all?
Coronavirus - New Zealand