Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@godder Two major flaws with your rough estimates, The first is the death rate in under 12s would be much closer to 0 than 0.5%, so those ~800k children are essentially doubling the deaths at 80% in your estimate.
The other is we're already at over 90% in the 65+ age group where the majority of the deaths would be. As there's unlikely to be much of an increase in the vaccination rate in this group, so the overall vaccination rate increasing is going to make a lot less of a difference.
If you correct for these, it goes to being ~2800 deaths at the current 75% vaccinated rate and ~2200 at 90% vaccinated. Still obviously a rough estimate though.
Also, the modelling with restrictions isn't really helpful unless the model also takes into account how long they'll need to stay in place. In general, the bigger the impact the restrictions have, the longer they'll need to stay in place. Over how long of a period of time would the cases causing those 7000 deaths need to be spread out to reduce them? If it's 10 years, then you're looking at at least 5 years of reasonably strong restrictions.
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I feel a TSF Covid scientific modelling group is forming ...
This is a very good article I read today. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/24/a-bit-of-a-mistery-why-england-covid-cases-are-going-down-despite-ease-of-restrictions
Case rates and hospitalizations are falling in England and the head of Spi-M (our government's scientific modelling group) admits this is unexpected. Hospitalization was expected to peak at a low estimate of 2000, but seems to have peaked at 800 and is falling now. No one seems to know why. Remember we have voluntary masking, no mandatory controls here.
According to Prof Graham Medley, chair of the Sage modelling subgroup, Spi-M, while infections and admissions have drifted down in the past couple of weeks, little has changed over the larger timeframe of the past 10 weeks. “This is unexpected,” he said. “There must be a balance between the increasing immunity from infection and vaccination, and the amount of contact, but how they exactly balance to keep R roughly at 1 is a bit of a mystery.”
Basically post-Vax is new territory for every country.
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@anonymous that comes under "extremely simplified" and adjustments based on age and other conditions (you have adjusted for age, but not comorbidities). Restrictions matter in that they extend how long it takes for the wave to roll through the system, but unless they reduce R Eff to below 1, almost everyone who is unvaccinated will still eventually get it.
That said, if there is a large wave, the health system would fail to cope, and the death rate would increase.
The
laughably simplistic spreadsheet with a few basic formulamodel also doesn't account for border restrictions. -
I wasn't going to post for a while but something happened in the last couple of days that really hit me.
I'm not a huge fan of people, which is why I wasn't going to post - I didn't want to verbally punch anyone on here when things are tough.
Then this happened.
One one my businesses is part of a group of over 70 stores over NZ. All privately owned. We are part of the 4 group included in AKL and we were locked down, no income, etc when the rest of the country was out and able to trade.
The rest of the country's stores started a "Jafa" fund (amusing in itself) and donated cash so we all received a huge gift basket and gift cards to take our staff out for dinner when we are allowed. I didn't need the cash, but the gesture from so many people around the country is just staggering and I have never been so touched about the kindness of others. Not something I am usually accustomed to as I am a prick. Karma is a bitch.
Just remarkable.
I might even lighten up on Cantabs (maybe). Some good people in this country.
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@snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I wasn't going to post for a while but something happened in the last couple of days that really hit me.
I'm not a huge fan of people, which is why I wasn't going to post - I didn't want to verbally punch anyone on here when things are tough.
Then this happened.
One one my businesses is part of a group of over 70 stores over NZ. All privately owned. We are part of the 4 group included in AKL and we were locked down, no income, etc when the rest of the country was out and able to trade.
The rest of the country's stores started a "Jafa" fund (amusing in itself) and donated cash so we all received a huge gift basket and gift cards to take our staff out for dinner when we are allowed. I didn't need the cash, but the gesture from so many people around the country is just staggering and I have never been so touched about the kindness of others. Not something I am usually accustomed to as I am a prick. Karma is a bitch.
Just remarkable.
I might even lighten up on Cantabs (maybe). Some good people in this country.
Sometimes when you need it most the goodness of the human spirit can surprise you. Sounds like a much needed morale boost
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@snowy was a big banner in the Southland - Canterbury game saying thank you to Auckland!
so while its easy for us to poke and laugh at Auckland, i think people generally do feel for you guys, given we hated our 2 weeks or so of L4 and you guys done 5!
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John Key wades in
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@taniwharugby I had my 2nd jab on Friday. Compared to my first time in August, the vaccination centre was almost empty and I didn't have to wait at all. The few people that I saw while waiting post-injection were all younger compared to a room full of 65+ back in August. Hopefully that cohort has already had their 2nd injection.
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@snowy awesome bro, on the Cantab treatment that is 😉
Thanks for sharing the story. In what has been a crap situation, there’s been a lot of kindness and goodwill that has not had any fanfare or coverage, just because there are some decent folk out there that like helping.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
https://stuff.co.nz/opinion/300415938/miq-is-broken--why-do-so-few-kiwis-care?cid=app-iPhone
Jacinda speaks a lot about kindness, but she only seems to mean it when kindness means votes.
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
https://stuff.co.nz/opinion/300415938/miq-is-broken--why-do-so-few-kiwis-care?cid=app-iPhone
Jacinda speaks a lot about kindness, but she only seems to mean it when kindness means votes.
Agree, although I think that's more because of realpolitik than any particular disbelief in kindness - if kindness will get you voted out and the other lot voted in with a specific mandate to undo your kindness, it's not much use. If NZers believed in kindness seriously, we'd have different welfare and corrections systems.
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@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
https://stuff.co.nz/opinion/300415938/miq-is-broken--why-do-so-few-kiwis-care?cid=app-iPhone
Jacinda speaks a lot about kindness, but she only seems to mean it when kindness means votes.
Agree, although I think that's more because of realpolitik than any particular disbelief in kindness - if kindness will get you voted out and the other lot voted in with a specific mandate to undo your kindness, it's not much use. If NZers believed in kindness seriously, we'd have different welfare and corrections systems.
She can deliver a message that much of NZ can swallow. She is very clever at disguising the fact that they aren't making and executing any big plans short of more lockdowns