World Test Championship

booboo

Again if my maths is right, updating the info from Stuff gets:

AUSTRALIA

Current points percentage: 69.2 (332 out of 480)

What’s left (max 120 points):

South Africa 3 away tests (40pts per win, 13pts per draw)

What they need to top 70 per cent:

88 more points: win minimum of 2 of 3 against South Africa and draw the other (can’t lose one)

INDIA

Current points percentage: 71.7 (430 out of 600)

What’s left (max 120 points):

England 4 home tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)

What they need to top 70 per cent:

74 more points (win 3 out of 4 England; or win 2 and draw 2)

ENGLAND

Current points percentage: 65.2 (352 out of 540)

What’s left (max 180 points):

Sri Lanka 1 away test (60pts per win, 20pts per draw)
India 4 away tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)

What they need to top 70 per cent:

152 more points (win remaining against Sri Lanka; and win 3 and draw 1 against India)

Snowy

I think that (if we make it) I would rather play India in English conditions at Lords anyway. We seem to have frailties (mentally and technically) versing the Aussies. India haven't been comfortable in our conditions which would be more like the English ones.

Bovidae

@Snowy Agree. That is why I said previously that we should hope India beats England, and SA wins a test.

I'd rather play India at a neutral venue that should offer plenty for our bowlers than face England at home with the Duke ball.

Snowy

@Bovidae I thought that I read that the top team is the home team and they get to choose the ball? If we get there we will likely be second so it could be any ball. We might have an SG.

Bovidae

I don't know about the ball, just assuming because it's at Lords they would use the Duke. Southee, Boult and co would prefer to as well. India have been critical of the SG balls so might not be that keen either.

booboo

Sri Lanka 381 all out, Tea Day 2

booboo

SL 381
Eng 331 for 9 stumps day 3

You'd normally be picking a draw from that point. Unless the Lankans collapse.

Or do the Lankans try and manufacture a chase?

England HAVE to win to retain any hope.

Bovidae

@booboo said in World Test Championship:

SL 381
Eng 331 for 9 stumps day 3

You'd normally be picking a draw from that point. Unless the Lankans collapse.

You called it.

booboo

@Bovidae so, option A

booboo

So 6 wicket win to Pomgolia.

Keeps them alive, well at least keeps their potential to exceed 70% alive.

Will need to have a look at the potential for both India and England to exceed 70%.

The more I think about it our best chance remains with the Proteas denying Australia, as India v England is probably an either- or. (As above will need to spreadsheet a bit tomorrow to check).

Have I said I've always liked South Africa?

nzzp

@booboo said in World Test Championship:

The more I think about it our best chance remains with the Proteas denying Australia, as India v England is probably an either- or. (As above will need to spreadsheet a bit tomorrow to check).

I'm still really not sure they will play it. England couldn't manage it -- unless the vaccine is enough protection

pakman

@nzzp said in World Test Championship:

@booboo said in World Test Championship:

The more I think about it our best chance remains with the Proteas denying Australia, as India v England is probably an either- or. (As above will need to spreadsheet a bit tomorrow to check).

I'm still really not sure they will play it. England couldn't manage it -- unless the vaccine is enough protection

The trajectory on vaccination programme means it's looking likely, subject to no unforseen developments!

Bovidae

@booboo said in World Test Championship:

So 6 wicket win to Pomgolia.

Keeps them alive, well at least keeps their potential to exceed 70% alive.

Will need to have a look at the potential for both India and England to exceed 70%.

It can only be India or England, not both.

TeWaio

I fully expect everything to conspire in the most unlikely of circumstances to screw NZ cricket over again.

Disclaimer: I was at Lords for the 2019 CWC final.

MajorRage

@TeWaio said in World Test Championship:

I expect everything will conspire in the most unlikely of circumstances to screw NZ cricket over again.

Disclaimer: I was at Lords for the 2019 CWC final.

Without doubt.

Then a few days later it'll come out that NZ should have been in the final after all, but by that point it'll disappear from the newswires within seconds, as one of Australia, India or England are crowned Test Champions.

Merely a co-incidence of course, that these 3 are the power brokers. of the world game.

TeWaio

Not my work, shared in a cricket group chat

Hooroo

@TeWaio said in World Test Championship:

Not my work, shared in a cricket group chat

So much NZ in that!

I'm going to set my hopes exceptionally high so that disappointment will be crushing.

Godder

So if it's close-ish, we're in, if it's a thrashing either way, we're out.

booboo

@Godder said in World Test Championship:

So if it's close-ish, we're in, if it's a thrashing either way, we're out.

Depends on Aus.

We need at least two of Ind, Eng and Aus to remain below 70.

If Aus fail to win 2 nil or better we're in because, as @Bovidae (I think) pointed out above India and England can't both make 70+.

It's conceivable we finish top, and equally conceivable we finish 3rd.

Gunner

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/australia-call-off-south-africa-tour-because-of-unacceptable-covid-19-risk-1249841?fbclid=IwAR2z1wcYMVxUe2oMUKbtbo2HU0ZFJRQpV8-d00qfxxvNHFtfw8aFlIweGqw

Think this means the BCs are off to Lords doesn’t it?

Edit, looking at the above table, then yes we’re in the final!!!

Whoop whoop.

A drawn India v England series, or Indian win means we play India, and England win means we play England.

Come on India!

The Silver Fern

World Test Championship