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uploaded my voting papers, pretty simple
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Advance voting statistics released at 2pm daily are available here - https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics/
372,295 early votes cast after 4 days, which is more than 2011's total number, more than 50% of 2014's total number, and more than 25% of 2017's total number. As predicted by many, looks like we're well on track to record numbers of early votes.
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Another 107,853 votes yesterday, taking us to a total of 478,860 early votes cast. Another Colmar Brunton Poll:
Labour Party: 47% (no change)
National Party: 32% (down 1%)
ACT: 8% (no change)
Green Party: 6% (down 1%)
New Zealand First: 2% (up 1%)Parliamentary seat entitlement based on poll results:
Labour Party: 60
National Party: 41
ACT Party: 11
Green Party: 8
The Opportunities Party: 2% (up 1%)
New Conservative: 1% (no change)
Advance New Zealand: 1% (no change)
Don’t know/Refused: 13% (up 2%)Preferred PM:
Jacinda Ardern: 50% (down 4%)
Judith Collins: 23% (no change)
David Seymour: 2% (no change)
Winston Peters: 1% (no change)
Don’t know/Refused: 17% (up 3%) -
@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@Godder any poll showing Labour needing the greens is a shit one.
It's pretty unlikely not to, and would be strategically unwise not to include the Greens even with a majority since Labour will need them in the future. If the cannabis referendum passes, the Greens will be busy with that anyway.
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@Godder said in NZ Politics:
@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@Godder any poll showing Labour needing the greens is a shit one.
It's pretty unlikely not to, and would be strategically unwise not to include the Greens even with a majority since Labour will need them in the future. If the cannabis referendum passes, the Greens will be busy with that anyway.
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@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
While I celebrate the demise of NZ First, it’s worrying to realise they were the handbrake on the more extreme polices of Labour and the Greens.
Looks like we will see what that looks like next term.
If Winnie had gone with National like most of his voters wanted he wouldn't have had to be the handbrake. I blame him for everything
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
While I celebrate the demise of NZ First, it’s worrying to realise they were the handbrake on the more extreme polices of Labour and the Greens.
Looks like we will see what that looks like next term.
If Winnie had gone with National like most of his voters wanted he wouldn't have had to be the handbrake. I blame him for everything
Yep. An you can blame Paula Bennett for that.
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in regard to these Colmar Brunton polls, anyone taken part or know anyone who has?
I know they are supposed to represent a decent cross section of society, but I have never taken part in one, nor have anyone I know (I dont ask after every one of them, but usually at work I do ask)
Is funny though, there was a 'phone poll' up here several years ago, about an Art Centre, I think 1,000 people were called at random, no garantee they were even rate payers, think it was around 55-45 against the proposal:
So a proper referendum was done, with about 15,000 rate payers voting, and result was reversed with 55% for it...now with the centre about 6 or so months away from completion, the vocal minority point to the phone poll as the first referendum as to the people being against it and the council did it anyway.
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@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
While I celebrate the demise of NZ First, it’s worrying to realise they were the handbrake on the more extreme polices of Labour and the Greens.
Looks like we will see what that looks like next term.
If Winnie had gone with National like most of his voters wanted he wouldn't have had to be the handbrake. I blame him for everything
Yep. An you can blame Paula Bennett for that.
serious question - why Paula? Did he have a vendetta against her
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@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
While I celebrate the demise of NZ First, it’s worrying to realise they were the handbrake on the more extreme polices of Labour and the Greens.
Looks like we will see what that looks like next term.
If Winnie had gone with National like most of his voters wanted he wouldn't have had to be the handbrake. I blame him for everything
Yep. An you can blame Paula Bennett for that.
serious question - why Paula? Did he have a vendetta against her
I may be misremembering but I thought Peters blamed her for the leak. Wouldn’t consider National unless she was sacked.
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@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
While I celebrate the demise of NZ First, it’s worrying to realise they were the handbrake on the more extreme polices of Labour and the Greens.
Looks like we will see what that looks like next term.
If Winnie had gone with National like most of his voters wanted he wouldn't have had to be the handbrake. I blame him for everything
Yep. An you can blame Paula Bennett for that.
serious question - why Paula? Did he have a vendetta against her
I may be misremembering but I thought Peters blamed her for the leak. Wouldn’t consider National unless she was sacked.
And labour caved and gave Winnie everything he demanded
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
While I celebrate the demise of NZ First, it’s worrying to realise they were the handbrake on the more extreme polices of Labour and the Greens.
Looks like we will see what that looks like next term.
If Winnie had gone with National like most of his voters wanted he wouldn't have had to be the handbrake. I blame him for everything
Yep. An you can blame Paula Bennett for that.
serious question - why Paula? Did he have a vendetta against her
I may be misremembering but I thought Peters blamed her for the leak. Wouldn’t consider National unless she was sacked.
And labour caved and gave Winnie everything he demanded
more by good luck than good judgement, that wound up working pretty well for them.
Well, mainly because of Covid. But once you have your hands on ht elevers of power, it's harder to lose them.
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
While I celebrate the demise of NZ First, it’s worrying to realise they were the handbrake on the more extreme polices of Labour and the Greens.
Looks like we will see what that looks like next term.
If Winnie had gone with National like most of his voters wanted he wouldn't have had to be the handbrake. I blame him for everything
Yep. An you can blame Paula Bennett for that.
serious question - why Paula? Did he have a vendetta against her
I may be misremembering but I thought Peters blamed her for the leak. Wouldn’t consider National unless she was sacked.
And labour caved and gave Winnie everything he demanded
I can't remember where I read it since it was probably early 2018, but National offered Winnie more than Labour.
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@Godder said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
While I celebrate the demise of NZ First, it’s worrying to realise they were the handbrake on the more extreme polices of Labour and the Greens.
Looks like we will see what that looks like next term.
If Winnie had gone with National like most of his voters wanted he wouldn't have had to be the handbrake. I blame him for everything
Yep. An you can blame Paula Bennett for that.
serious question - why Paula? Did he have a vendetta against her
I may be misremembering but I thought Peters blamed her for the leak. Wouldn’t consider National unless she was sacked.
And labour caved and gave Winnie everything he demanded
I can't remember where I read it since it was probably early 2018, but National offered Winnie more than Labour.
I thought I heard the opposite. Can't be bothered face checking, don't want to spoil my narrative
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Latest early voting update - total to yesterday is 585,883 votes cast after 6 days, which is about 50% of last time, with 8 days to go. The last 2 elections had the biggest turnout in the last 2 days before the election day, so we are on track for a very large early turnout.
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@Godder said in NZ Politics:
Latest early voting update - total to yesterday is 585,883 votes cast after 6 days, which is about 50% of last time, with 8 days to go. The last 2 elections had the biggest turnout in the last 2 days before the election day, so we are on track for a very large early turnout.
Or people are listening to the requests to not all wait until the last day so there aren't congested polling stations. This was always part of the COVID planning as we didn't know if we would have higher alert levels.
NZ Politics