Filling McCullums' Boots in ODIs
-
<p>When Fleming retired I remember there was a big deal about him getting his average up to over 40. He hit two fifties I think in his final test at the Basin. There was a decent amount of fuss made about him and that was at a time when Fleming wouldn't have made most of the world's top test sides.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>I actually did the stats once on McCullum and found out that he won about 46% of the tosses as captain. It was a below par record but not really statistically that unlikely.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="gollum" data-cid="558037" data-time="1455183208">
<div>
<p>I'd hazard it has less to do with conditions & more to do with genetics.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>To head off on a tangent, it that part of Asia inter group marriage is staggeringly rare, so where in the West we are very much a mess of genes, in India & Pakistan the gene pool is usually very concetrated & its astonishing at first travelling round there how various areas are blatently genetically a mile away from each other. In India I'm pretty much guarenteed to be the talest guy in the room, especially in the south. In Lahore & north of there I'm often the shortest. Northern Pakistan is, genetically, almost your ideal fast bowler. And not surprisingly its where all of Pakistans quicks hail from. Lahore is a production line for great quicks. And at a guess I expect if you gene tested the folks from there you'd find 99% was from that area way back.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>In contrast NZers will be 10% scots, 15% Maori, 27% Pom, 3% tongan, etc.</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>Javagal Srinath was a fairly tall stapping fella though.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Shit I'm starting to sound like Smudge now.</p> -
<p>McCullum has won 56 tosses and lost 64 tosses over his career as captain. When he losses the toss we have won 36 games and lost 19. when he wins the toss we have won 24 games and lost 26. Losing 8 more tosses than you win is hardly a massive statistical aberration. Applying a cumulative binomial probability distribution there is a 26% chance that McCullum would have won 56 or less tosses out of his 120. So if you were to pick 4 random cricket captains you would expect a least one in four of them would lose the toss as much as McCullum does (on average).</p>
<p> </p>
<p>This is also why I think human perception is so terrible. Almost everyone has this idea that McCullum loses a lot of coin tosses and is statistically terrible at them. The truth however, is very different. McCullum's record at the coin toss really isn't very bad at all, people just think it is. This is why we should use statistics like averages which are objective and are not beholden to human biases.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="hydro11" data-cid="558466" data-time="1455327392"><p>
McCullum has won 56 tosses and lost 64 tosses over his career as captain. When he losses the toss we have won 36 games and lost 19. when he wins the toss we have won 24 games and lost 26. Losing 8 more tosses than you win is hardly a massive statistical aberration. Applying a cumulative binomial probability distribution there is a 26% chance that McCullum would have won 56 or less tosses out of his 120. So if you were to pick 4 random cricket captains you would expect a least one in four of them would lose the toss as much as McCullum does (on average).<br><br>
This is also why I think human perception is so terrible. Almost everyone has this idea that McCullum loses a lot of coin tosses and is statistically terrible at them. The truth however, is very different. McCullum's record at the coin toss really isn't very bad at all, people just think it is. This is why we should use statistics like averages which are objective and are not beholden to human biases.</p></blockquote>
<br>
McCullum has only ever had 5 draws as captain? -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="hydro11" data-cid="558466" data-time="1455327392">
<div>
<p>McCullum has won 56 tosses and lost 64 tosses over his career as captain. When he losses the toss we have won 36 games and lost 19. when he wins the toss we have won 24 games and lost 26. Losing 8 more tosses than you win is hardly a massive statistical aberration. Applying a cumulative binomial probability distribution there is a 26% chance that McCullum would have won 56 or less tosses out of his 120. So if you were to pick 4 random cricket captains you would expect a least one in four of them would lose the toss as much as McCullum does (on average).</p>
<p> </p>
<p>This is also why I think human perception is so terrible. Almost everyone has this idea that McCullum loses a lot of coin tosses and is statistically terrible at them. The truth however, is very different. McCullum's record at the coin toss really isn't very bad at all, people just think it is. This is why we should use statistics like averages which are objective and are not beholden to human biases.</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>so do you have the toss resultsin order to ensure the anomolies in perception are just that rather than a poor run of luck that has been off set by a good run early on or vice versa</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Siam" data-cid="558399" data-time="1455293189"><p>Best NZ cricket captain ever, retiring. That's worth a bit of palaver</p></blockquote>
<br>
Best ever follow me over the top lads death or glory chaps Undoubtedly <br><br>
Best captain. Howarth Coney. Fleming all have at least equal claims. <br><br>
Howarth and Flem were both acknowledged as the most astute captains in the world at times. <br><br>
Baz has latterly been acknowledged as a leader and for the way he plays the game but no one says he's the best captain. <br><br>
I think he's done a great job but the valedictories have become a bit of a wank fest. <br><br>
Never forget too he was responsible for one of the most venal acts by a black cap ever so he's not always been whiter than white. -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="hydro11" data-cid="558460" data-time="1455325865"><p>
When Fleming retired I remember there was a big deal about him getting his average up to over 40. He hit two fifties I think in his final test at the Basin. There was a decent amount of fuss made about him and that was at a time when Fleming wouldn't have made most of the world's top test sides.</p></blockquote>
<br>
A decent amount of fuss was made.....it's still my signature! -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="taniwharugby" data-cid="558472" data-time="1455332311">
<div>
<p>so do you have the toss resultsin order to ensure the anomolies in perception are just that rather than a poor run of luck that has been off set by a good run early on or vice versa</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="taniwharugby" data-cid="558472" data-time="1455332311">
<div>
<p>so do you have the toss resultsin order to ensure the anomolies in perception are just that rather than a poor run of luck that has been off set by a good run early on or vice versa</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?captain_involve=10384;class=11;filter=advanced;orderby=start;page=2;team=5;template=results;type=team;view=results'>http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?captain_involve=10384;class=11;filter=advanced;orderby=start;page=2;team=5;template=results;type=team;view=results</a></p>
<p> </p>
<p>McCullum has only won 6 of his last 19 tosses. That has just 8% cumulative probability. McCullum also lost 7 tosses in a row in 2014 but then won the next 8 in a row.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Since 1 Jan 2014 McCullum has won 14 of his 42 tosses at home. This has a cumulative probability of just 2.1%. Over the same period he had 16 tosses away from home and won 10 of them. This has a cumulative probability of 90%.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The idea that McCullum is exceptionally bad at tosses is just recency bias, conformation bias and because we don't watch away games as much. He is just sort of bad at tosses. Regardless, tosses don't make much difference to results. The Basin Reserve is actually one of the few grounds where you really want to win the toss.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="dogmeat" data-cid="558505" data-time="1455341064">
<div>
<p>Best ever follow me over the top lads death or glory chaps Undoubtedly<br><br>
Best captain. Howarth Coney. Fleming all have at least equal claims.<br><br>
Howarth and Flem were both acknowledged as the most astute captains in the world at times.<br><br>
Baz has latterly been acknowledged as a leader and for the way he plays the game but no one says he's the best captain.<br><br>
I think he's done a great job but the valedictories have become a bit of a **** fest.<br><br>
Never forget too he was responsible for one of the most venal acts by a black cap ever so he's not always been whiter than white.</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>I was baiting the stats nerds</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Only objective rating for a captain is his wins record. Captains job is to win tests, (games). Ergo Baz is the best ever</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Can't continually use stats to deride the fella's batting and then ignore the only relevant stat for a captain</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Best ever :)</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="dogmeat" data-cid="558505" data-time="1455341064">
<div>
<p><br><br><br>
Never forget too he was responsible for one of the most venal acts by a black cap ever so he's not always been whiter than white.</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>What was that DM? Genuinely curious</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="hydro11" data-cid="558536" data-time="1455360331"><p>
<a class="bbc_url" href="http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?captain_involve=10384;class=11;filter=advanced;orderby=start;page=2;team=5;template=results;type=team;view=results">http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?captain_involve=10384;class=11;filter=advanced;orderby=start;page=2;team=5;template=results;type=team;view=results</a><br><br>
McCullum has only won 6 of his last 19 tosses. That has just 8% cumulative probability. McCullum also lost 7 tosses in a row in 2014 but then won the next 8 in a row.<br><br>
Since 1 Jan 2014 McCullum has won 14 of his 42 tosses at home. This has a cumulative probability of just 2.1%. Over the same period he had 16 tosses away from home and won 10 of them. This has a cumulative probability of 90%.<br><br>
The idea that McCullum is exceptionally bad at tosses is just recency bias, conformation bias and because we don't watch away games as much. He is just sort of bad at tosses. Regardless, tosses don't make much difference to results. The Basin Reserve is actually one of the few grounds where you really want to win the toss.</p></blockquote>
So recent perception is actually correct then....despite overall it being an anomoly. -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Siam" data-cid="558545" data-time="1455375799"><p>
What was that DM? Genuinely curious</p></blockquote>
<br>
I imagine he's referring to Baz running out Murali when he left his crease prematurely to congratulate Sangakkara on a century.
