Super Rugby 2025
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@gt12 said in Super Rugby 2025:
That show is much better when they talk strategy and tactics, rather than about players. I’m a pretty avid listener but I’ll give it a skip this week.
Edit: if Ross Karl is a lurker here, please consider this consumer feedback.
Quoted for truth
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For all you stats buffs out there, this very well put together article by Rugby Pass highlights why Super Rugby has been a 'cut above' this year compared to other comps around the world.
The raw data that proves Super Rugby Pacific is currently a cut above
To appreciate how unique the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season has been, we need to look at other seasons and other competitions.
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Just an odd note.
We are 8 weeks into the super rugby season and the Highlanders are the only NZ side(not including Moana as an NZ side) to have played in Australia, tonight will be their 3rd game there.
I’m not saying this is a direct reflection of the results, but I do think it’s an odd way to schedule a comp by those who plan it out. It should make for a very interesting end of the season once other NZ sides start their Aussie tours.
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The time restrictions are having an effect.
Super Rugby Pacific – Shape of Game Metrics
Game Length (excluding half-time): 1h29m28s (2025), 1h31m7s (2024)
Static Time (excluding half-time): 54m51s (2025), 56m04s (2024)
Penalty Kick Time: 40s (2025), 1m8s (2024)
Conversion Kick Time: 55s (2025), 1m9s (2024)
Scrums (mark to “crouch”): 26s (2025), 45s (2024)
Lineout (mark to formed): 17s (2025), 25s (2024)
Points per game: 61 (2025), 53.7 (2024)
Tries per game: 8.8 (2025), 7.3 (2024)
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MVP Voting at mid point
Super Rugby Pacific Player of the Year voting
22 – Ardie Savea [MOA]
21 –Tom Hooper [BRU]
19 – Timoci Tavatavanawai [HIG], Carlo Tizzano [FOR]
16- Damian McKenzie [CHI]
13 – Will Jordan [CRU], Peter Lakai [HUR], Patrick Pellegrini [MOA], Harry Wilson [RED], Caleb Tangitau [HIG]
12 – Cam Roigard [HUR], Jeremy Williams [FOR], Kini Naholo [HUR], Langi Gleeson [WAR], Mac Grealy [FOR]
11 – Sevu Reece [CRU], Jona Nareki [HIG], Harry Godfrey [HUR], Darcy Swain [FOR], Angus Bell [WAR], Mark Telea [BLU], Vuate Karawalevu [DRU]
10 – Elia Canakaivata [DRU], Du’Plessis Kirifi [HUR], Christian Lio-Willie [CRU], Charlie Cale [BRU], Beauden Barrett [BLU], Filipo Daugunu [RED], Fraser McReight [RED], Nathan Hastie [HIG], Patrick Tuipulotu [BLU], Quinn Tupaea [CHI], Tupou Vaa’i [CHI]
9 – Tate McDermott [RED], Ben Donaldson [FOR], Allan Alaalatoa [BRU], Motikiai Murray [DRU], Naitoa Ah Kuoi [CHI]
8 – Ponipate Loganimasi [DRU], Miracle Faiilagi [MOA], Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula [DRU], Dalton Papali’I [BLU], Andy Muirhead [BRU], Max Jorgensen [WAR]
7 – David Havili [CRU], David Porecki [WAR], Harry Potter [FOR], Kyle Preston [CRU], Kyren Taumoefolau [MOA]
6 – Teddy Wilson [WAR], Taniela Tele’a [HIG], Simon Parker [CHI], Nic White [FOR], Meli Derenalagi [DRU], Luke Reimer [BRU], Macca Springer [CRU], Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii [WAR], Joseva Tamani [DRU], Ioane Moananu [CRU], Heremaia Murray [RED], Fatafehi Fineanganofo [HUR], Finley Christie [BLU], Finn Hurley [HIG], Emoni Narawa [CHI], Ethan Blackadder [CRU], Cam Christie [BLU], Bailyn Sullivan [HUR], AJ Lam [BLU], Alex Hodgman [RED]
5 – Brayden Iose [HUR], Charlie Gamble [WAR], Etonia Waqa [DRU], Jackson Garden-Bachop [MOA], Luke Jacobson [CHI], Nic Dolly [FOR], Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa [MOA], Seru Uru [RED], Shaun Stevenson [CHI], Tom Lynagh [RED], Tom Wright [BRU], Veveni Lasaqa [HIG], Xavi Taele [BLU], Noah Hotham [CRU], Iosefo Masi [DRU]
4 – Joe Brial [RED], Josh Canham [RED], Triston Reilly [WAR], Tevita Ikanivere [DRU], Sione Havili Talitui [MOA], Sean Withy [HIG], Len Ikitau [BRU], Leroy Carter [CHI], Jonathan Taumateine [MOA], Lalomilo Lalomilo [MOA], Corey Toole [BRU], Harrison Goddard [BRU], Hoskins Sotutu [BLU]
3 – Andrew Kellaway [WAR], Caleb Clarke [BLU], Chay Fihaki [CRU], Declan Meredith [BRU], Folau Fakatava [HIG], Harry Plummer [BLU], Hugh Sinclair [WAR], Jahrome Brown [CHI], Jake Gordon [WAR], Joey Walton [WAR], Kaylum Boshier [CHI], Lachie Anderson [RED], Lawson Creighton [WAR], Nic Frost [BRU], Rieko Ioane [BLU], Rory Scott [BRU], Samipeni Finau [CHI], Simione Kuruvoli [DRU], Siosifa Amone [WAR], Soane Mikaele Vikena [HIG], Tamaiti Williams [CRU], Tane Edmed [WAR], Feleti Sa’e-Ta’ufo’ou [MOA], Vaiolini Ekuasi [FOR], Matt Faessler [RED]
2 – Brandon Paenga-Amosa [FOR], Selestino Ravutaumada [DRU], Isaia Walker-Leawere [HUR], Will Harris [FOR], William Havili [MOA], Ryan Lonergan [BRU], Ricky Riccitelli [BLU], Nick Champion De Crespigny [FOR], Kurt Eklund [BLU], Josh Flook [RED], Josh Jacomb [CHI], Julian Heaven [NSW], Jacob Devery [HUR], Isoa Nasilasila [DRU], Hunter Paisami [RED], Hamish Stewart [FOR], Dylan Pietsch [FOR], Chris Apoua [MOA], Codie Taylor [CRU], Danny Toala [MOA], Cam Suafoa [BLU], Ben Grant [WAR], Brad Shields [HUR], Anton Lienert-Brown [CHI], Anton Segner [BLU], Antonio Shalfoon [CRU], Fletcher Anderson [CRU]
1 – Allan Craig [MOA], Asafo Aumua [HUR], Caleb Delaney [HUR], Fabian Holland [HIG], Frank Lomani [DRU], Ilaisa Droasese [DRU], James Slipper [BRU], Kalani Thomas [RED], Marcel Renata [BLU], Max Burey [FOR], Mesake Vocevoce [DRU], Mesulame Dolokoto [DRU], Mitch Dunshea [HIG], Rob Valetini [BRU], Ryan Smith [RED], Sio Tomkinson [FOR], TK Howden [HIG], Tom Savage [MOA], Tuidraki Samusamuvodre [DRU], Xavier Numia [HUR], Taha Kemara [CRU], Sam Slade [MOA], Ethan de Groot [HIG]
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You know what this competition really needs? A random test break in the middle maaaaaaaaaaaaate
Super Rugby: The stats that suggest this year is its best ever
Fewer stoppages, more points and a more engaged audience – the 'proof' that this year's Super Rugby competition is a standout.
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Unlike in previous years, there really doesn’t seem to be a side which seems destined to end up in the final. Even the top 4 sides have shown some clear weaknesses: the Chiefs’ forwards have been unable to get on top of their opposites on a few occasions despite choosing to take those packs head-on (Drua, Tahs); the Crusaders have shown some incredible defensive frailty more than once (Chiefs, Moana Pasifika); the Reds seem unable to lift their game against top opponents (Crusaders, Chiefs, Brumbies); and the Brumbies have shown an ability to score points but have also conceded the 2nd most points from all playoff teams, with only the Western Force conceding more.
There is a sense of incompleteness about all of the NZ Super Rugby sides as well which probably hasn’t been there since at least before the Razor-led Crusader sides from 2017. It did make me wonder how a lack of collective Kiwi SR dominance was related to the performance of the All Blacks during the Test season. So I gathered both the AB win rate and the average NZ SR sides win rate since 1996 and that resulted in this graph.
A few things stood out to me. First of all, it looks evident to me that collective NZ SR success does not equate to Test success, if anything the reverse seems rather true. In the golden decade of the All Blacks (2005-2016), where they had an average win rate of 88%, the NZ SR sides only averaged a win rate of 55%. By contrast, in the period since (2017-’24) when the AB win rate has gone down considerably (72%), the average NZ SR sides win rate across these years has gone up (63%).
Of course, this can be explained in itself in a number of ways. There’s the considerable factor of the British and Irish Lions series, which meant that in the years leading up to 2017 more provincial players probably sticked around longer than they normally would’ve, strengthening the NZ Super Rugby sides. Another factor, however, was the weakening of the competition during the 2010s: the South African and Australian sides suffered from considerable player drain and lack of depth while the competition was further diluted through sides like the Sunwolves. As a result, the opposition for NZ SR sides deteriorated, likely correlating with increasingly poor performances at Test level.
This brings us to the current season, where both the Australian sides and Moana Pasifika have shown both real signs of improvement as well as tactical innovation, with several Aussie sides using attacking shapes which are reminiscent of a Joe Schmidt-attack (high-rate of possession, focus on breakdown accuracy, target space around the ruck). It still remains to be seen whether the quality of the Aussie sides can be retained after the Lions tour, the departure of Schmidt, and the World Cup but, for the moment at least, I think it can be argued that the quality of the competition is a positive sign for the All Blacks. If the NZ players are genuinely tested at provincial level, both physically and tactically, it should only prove to be a positive sign for the next level, as a proper preparation for the rigour of Test matches.
Sidenote: yes, I know there are those who are expecting a collapse of the Australian sides in the coming weeks with the upcoming clashes against NZ opposition. I myself am not so sure that this will be the case, but I guess we’ll see soon enough.
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Things have really changed again this week. By beating the Reds, the Brumbies have realistically designated a very clear top four which is unlikely to change. By beating the Chiefs, the Waratahs have also greatly increased their chances.
Looking at things currently, the mark to nab 6th is likely to be between 31-33 points, so for the Canes and Blues, that almost definitely requires winning 4/6. The Landers extra BP at this stage means three wins (including one over the Canes) and three bonus points (most likely losing ones) would get them there.
This is of course dependent on how many points the Tahs and Force get to… Tahs fixtures are tougher, but they are the better of the two, hence why 31-33 could be the mark. There is a world where the Reds get dragged into this, although it feels improbable they would lose 6 straight, and even then with bonus points and a home game against the Drua to finish they should be fine.
Moana’s loss makes it tricky for them, though if they account for the Landers, Canes & Blues + the Drua/Brumbies, they might sneak in.
The next 2-3 weeks will probably clear a lot of this up, because the Canes have two games in Aussie, the Force play the Canes and the Blues, and the Highlanders play the Chiefs and Crusaders.
Canes and Landers will be all but done if they can’t win one of the next two, the Blues would be clinging on, and would be up struggle street if they fail to pick up bonus points.
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Gideon Wrampling avoids a citing… is there an example this season where someone received a red, but then had it mitigated down by the citing commission/received a yellow, then had it upgraded to a red?
Feels a bit like they are simply supporting the referees.
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@frugby said in Super Rugby 2025:
is there an example this season where someone received a red, but then had it mitigated down by the citing commission/received a yellow, then had it upgraded to a red?
Hunter Paisami for Reds earlier this year. Yellow - off field review - stayed yellow. Cited - multiple week ban
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@KiwiMurph said in Super Rugby 2025:
@frugby said in Super Rugby 2025:
is there an example this season where someone received a red, but then had it mitigated down by the citing commission/received a yellow, then had it upgraded to a red?
Hunter Paisami for Reds earlier this year. Yellow - off field review - stayed yellow. Cited - multiple week ban
That fucking TMO deserved a few weeks off too
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Super Rugby Pacific
A tight race at the top for #SuperRugbyPacific Player of the Year 😤 Read more 👉 https://super.rugby/superrugby/news/super-rugby-pacific-player-of-the-year-round-9/
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Faster games, more tries, bigger crowds headline Super Rugby Pacific in 2025
