@antipodean said in Ukraine:
@nostrildamus said in Ukraine:
@antipodean said in Ukraine:
@nostrildamus said in Ukraine:
@antipodean said in Ukraine:
@Kiwiwomble said in Ukraine:
surely ukraine joining Nato is only a problem for Russia if say they want to invade Ukraine
If you're Russia and see your borders being subsumed into a giant military alliance with no other purpose than to combat you, what would you think?
I'd think invading Ukraine would be disastrous as that led directly to Nordic nations joining Nato...
That appears to me to be a classic post facto argument which doesn't adequately explain the benefit of controlling a warm port, let alone an area least likely to induce a direct confrontation from NATO after 2014.
no, it's called weighing up the likely consequences.
I literally just described two of them.
Not a good enough rebuttal. To adequately explain benefits one should also adequately explain risks.
Russia should have thought of that possibility if Putin hadn't surrounded himself with cronies and yes-men. My European friends in the Nordic and E European countries indicated this might happen to me before and during COVID. Russia was testing missiles over Finland since 2021 at least. People were edgy even then.
And I didn't see you outline other reasons Russia might have decided to invade Ukraine.
Was I supposed to? Must have missed that homework assignment.
Because you wrote "> > > > > If you're Russia and see your borders being subsumed into a giant military alliance with no other purpose than to combat you, what would you think?"
Oh and btw it was Russia prancing along the borders with its big army show, not Nato.
Yes he didn't want to lose influence in E Europe
Because Simon from the Guardian knows, exactly, what Putin wants.
The Observer. And you keep missing the word "could." It is in the article.
but he also wanted Ukraine's resources
Second paragraph: Energy security also looms large—in particular, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s determination to ensure the continued flow of Russian oil and gas to European markets, including through Ukraine’s pipelines.
Am I supposed to take this analysis seriously?
Given you wrote "If you're Russia and see your borders being subsumed into a giant military alliance with no other purpose than to combat you, what would you think?"
the answer is no, I don't expect you to take any analysis - apart from your predetermined opinion - seriously.
and to shore up support:
Still waiting on this downfall. When's that scheduled?
Could. The article said "could".
"let alone an area least likely to induce a direct confrontation from NATO after 2014"
Well it isn't part of Nato, being part of Ukraine. But if there is one thing to unite Ukraine, Russia seems to have done it.
So united they're conscripting 40 year olds and have suspended democracy.
They are running out of men, but given their internal problems and being bombed into ruination they put up a damn good show of united resistance far longer than many predicted. Your sarcasm isn't a rebuttal.
I return to my original point. Russia could have and I believe would have guessed there was a risk of Nato membership escalation. If they didn't that surprises me but it isn't important. If they just wanted to control a small and volatile Crimean area it seems rather risky to me, now and then when it happened. Risky for the world as well, if Putin isn't bluffing.